The geomagnetic field was quiet on April 16. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 331 and 433 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 177.8 - increasing 21.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 139.85. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.5). Three hour interval K indices: 11211001 (planetary), 11321212 (Boulder), 21212122 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 381) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 257) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13272 [S22W51] developed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13273 [N08W70] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13275 [N19W15] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13276 [S22W05] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13279 [S20E13] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13280 [S07W73] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13281 [S23E28] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13282 [N11E25] decayed slowly after noon and was mostly quiet.
The region has weak polarity intermixing and an M class flare is possible.
New region 13283 [S22E47] rotated into view on April 13 and continued
to develop on April 16 when the region received its NOAA number.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8463 [N21E32] reemerged with tiny spots.
S8464 [S14W01] reemerged with tiny spots.
S8467 [N08E00] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8468 [N39E13] decayed slowly and quietly.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.4 | 00:44 | 13280 | GOES16 | simultaneous flares in ARs 13282 and 13281 | |
| C2.8 | 01:41 | behind NE limb | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 01:59 | 13281 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 02:26 | 13281 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 03:39 | 13281 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 05:33 | 13280 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 07:08 | 13280 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 07:34 | behind NE limb | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 09:37 | 13282 | GOES16 | attributed to AR 13280 by SWPC | |
| C2.5 | 11:14 | 13283 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 12:25 | 13282 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.0 | 17:44 | behind NE limb | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 19:53 | S06W69 | 13280 | GOES16 | |
| C2.6 | 20:46 | 13280 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 21:55 | 13283 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 00:00 | 13280 | GOES16 |
April 14, 16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were
observed.
April 15: An extensive filament eruption in the northwest quadrant
was observed beginning in SDO/AIA imagery at 22:47 UT. A relatively faint
partial halo CME was observed early on April 16 and could reach Earth
on April 19 or 20 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet conditions are likely on April 15-17.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13272 | 2023.04.05 2023.04.06 |
6 | 29 | 14 | S22W55 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S22W51 |
| 13274 | 2023.04.08 2023.04.10 |
S07W86 | location: S07W82 | ||||||||
| 13278 | 2023.04.08 2023.04.12 |
N12W85 | |||||||||
| 13273 | 2023.04.09 2023.04.09 |
1 | 3 | 2 | N08W69 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N08W70 |
| 13275 | 2023.04.09 2023.04.10 |
1 | 6 | 2 | N19W17 | 0020 | HAX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N19W15 |
| S8445 | 2023.04.09 | N22W47 | |||||||||
| S8447 | 2023.04.09 | S09W58 | |||||||||
| 13276 | 2023.04.10 2023.04.10 |
5 | 16 | 9 | S23W06 | 0020 | BXI | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S22W05 area: 0035 |
| 13277 | 2023.04.10 2023.04.11 |
N10W45 |
 |
||||||||
| 13279 | 2023.04.10 2023.04.12 |
10 | 48 | 26 | S20E11 | 0180 | DSI | FSO |
 |
 |
location: S20E13 |
| S8455 | 2023.04.10 | N24W33 | |||||||||
| S8456 | 2023.04.10 | S09W41 | |||||||||
| S8459 | 2023.04.11 | N09W33 | |||||||||
| 13280 | 2023.04.11 2023.04.13 |
8 | 20 | 10 | S07W71 | 0200 | CSI | DKO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S07W73 area: 0330 |
| 13281 | 2023.04.12 2023.04.13 |
12 | 42 | 23 | S24E32 | 0300 | EKI | EAI |
 |
 |
location: S23E28 area: 0370 |
| 13282 | 2023.04.13 2023.04.13 |
17 | 48 | 23 | N11E24 | 0530 | EKI | EKI |
 |
 |
area: 0700 location: N11E25 |
| S8463 | 2023.04.13 | 2 | 1 | N21E32 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S8464 | 2023.04.13 | 4 | 3 | S14W01 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
||||
| 13283 | 2023.04.13 2023.04.16 |
5 | 23 | 9 | S22E48 | 0050 | CRI | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma |
| S8466 | 2023.04.13 | S19E45 | |||||||||
| S8467 | 2023.04.14 | 5 | 2 | N08E00 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8468 | 2023.04.14 | 5 | 3 | N39E01 | 0012 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8469 | 2023.04.15 | S15W34 |
 |
||||||||
| Total spot count: | 65 | 251 | 127 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 155 | 381 | 257 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 106 | 299 | 175 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 171 | 210 | 206 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.5 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.4 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | (99.0 projected, +2.6) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | (102.0 projected, +3.0) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | (106.8 projected, +4.8) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (112.9 projected, +6.1) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (117.9 projected, +5.0) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 122.6 | (121.0 projected, +3.1) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.6 (1) | 43.4 (2A) / 81.3 (2B) / 138.8 (2C) | (126.4 projected, +5.4) | (8.1) | |
| 2023.05 | (132.1 projected, +5.7) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (135.2 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.07 | (134.7 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2023.08 | (135.7 projected, +1.0) | ||||
| 2023.09 | (139.2 projected, +3.5) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
