The geomagnetic field was quiet on July 1. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 400 and 501 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 165.5 - decreasing 2.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 145.70. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.8). Three hour interval K indices: 22111112 (planetary), 32333211 (Boulder), 34111112 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 292) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 178) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13354 [N16W43] lost area in all parts
except for the northwestern section where spots gained area. That section
contains a magnetic delta. A major flare is possible.
Region 13355 [S15E11] lost mature penumbra and was quiet.
Region 13356 [S07E23] was quiet and stable.
New region 13357 [S07E33] emerged on June 30 and was numbered the
next day by SWPC as slow development continued.
New region 13358 [S12E58] rotated into view on June 30 with SWPC
numbering the region the following day. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 03:17. C1.9 @
05:01, C1.7 @ 05:55 UT
New region 13359 [S22E55] emerged on June 30 and received its NOAA
number the next day as slow development persisted. The region was the source
of the only M flare of the day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S8709 [N17W85] rotated mostly out of view. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 00:15 UT
S8717 [S10E70] was quiet and stable.
S8718 [N14E22] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8719 [N23E60] was unstable and produced
several C flares. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 18:04 UT
S8720 [N25E07] was quiet and stable.
New region S8722 [S17W16] emerged before noon with tiny spots,
then decayed slowly.
New region S8723 [S03W48] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.5 | 07:06 | 13358 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 07:25 | S8719 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13357 by SWPC | |
| C2.4 | 08:18 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 09:19 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 10:34 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 11:39 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.1 | 12:56 | S8719 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13359 by SWPC | |
| C2.3 | 13:26 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 13:44 | S8719 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 14:18 | GOES16 | location appears to be in a spotless plage region to the east of AR 13359 | ||
| C3.0 | 15:59 | S8719 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 19:16 | 13359 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 20:06 | S8719 | GOES16 | attributed to AR 13354 by SWPC | |
| C2.8 | 20:12 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 22:23 | S20E55 | 13359 | GOES16 |
June 29 - July 1: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1157) was Earth facing on June 30. A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1158) will likely be Earth facing on July 4-5.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on July 2. Quiet to unsettled is possible on July 3-4 due to weak effects from CH1157.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13341 | 2023.06.18 2023.06.19 |
1 | S16W88 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
rotated out of view |
||||
| 13350 | 2023.06.20 2023.06.23 |
S11W73 | location: S09W66 | ||||||||
| 13348 | 2023.06.21 2023.06.23 |
S33W61 |
 |
location: S34W51 | |||||||
| 13349 | 2023.06.22 2023.06.23 |
N08W73 | location: N09W67 | ||||||||
| 13351 | 2023.06.22 2023.06.23 |
N21W50 | location: N22W47 | ||||||||
| 13354 | 2023.06.22 2023.06.26 |
26 | 64 | 42 | N13W44 | 1100 | FKC | FHC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N16W43 |
| S8704 | 2023.06.24 | N08W59 | |||||||||
| 13355 | 2023.06.26 2023.06.27 |
2 | 15 | 7 | S16E03 | 0010 | HRX | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0030 location: S15E11 |
| S8707 | 2023.06.27 | N20W21 | |||||||||
| S8709 | 2023.06.29 | 1 | N17W85 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 13356 | 2023.06.29 2023.06.30 |
5 | 16 | 8 | S08E24 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S07E23 area: 0080 |
| S8711 | 2023.06.29 | N14E23 | |||||||||
| S8712 | 2023.06.29 | S12W04 | |||||||||
| S8713 | 2023.06.29 | S12W15 | |||||||||
| 13357 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
5 | 15 | 8 | S07E32 | 0020 | DRO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S07E33 area: 0090 |
| 13358 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
3 | 18 | 11 | S12E57 | 0090 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
location: S12E58 areas: 0110 |
| 13359 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
7 | 22 | 9 | S20E61 | 0030 | DRI | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S22E55 area: 0080 |
| S8717 | 2023.06.30 | 2 | 1 | S10E70 | 0006 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8718 | 2023.06.30 | 1 | N14E22 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S8719 | 2023.06.30 | 4 | 1 | N23E60 | 0060 | CAO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8720 | 2023.06.30 | 1 | 1 | N31E02 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S8721 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
N17E38 |
 |
||||||||
| S8722 | 2023.07.01 | 2 | S17W16 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8723 | 2023.07.01 | 1 | S03W48 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 49 | 162 | 88 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 119 | 292 | 178 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 76 | 197 | 123 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 131 | 161 | 142 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.5 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.4 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.7 (+2.3) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.0 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.6 (+5.6) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (113.7 projected, +6.1) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (118.5 projected, +4.8) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 122.6 | (121.6 projected, +3.1) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (127.0 projected, +5.4) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.9 | (132.7 projected, +5.7) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 163.4 | (135.9 projected, +3.2) | 8.9 |
| 2023.07 | 165.5 (1) | 3.8 (2A) / 119 (2B) / 173.9 (2C) | (135.4 projected, -0.5) | (4.8) | |
| 2023.08 | (136.4 projected, +1.0) | ||||
| 2023.09 | (139.8 projected, +3.4) | ||||
| 2023.10 | (141.6 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (144.2 projected max SC25, +2.6) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (143.4 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (140.1 projected, -3.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
