The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 22. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 372 and 465 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. A weak solar wind shock was observed arriving at DSCOVR at 03:00 UT on January 23, probably the arrival of the January 20 CME.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 198.6 - increasing 48.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 129.80). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.4). Three hour interval K indices: 21222232 (planetary), 12233331 (Boulder), 41212352 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 400) and in 13 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 247) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13190 [S14W47] has a moderately large magnetic delta in the northern part
of the huge penumbra. A major flare is possible.
Region 13191 [N11W57] decayed further losing mature penumbra on the
leader spots.
Region 13192 [N18W43] decayed slowly producing a few C flares.
Region 13196 [N13W08] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13197 [N18E03] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13198 [N25E17] was quiet and stable.
New region 13200 [N22E61] rotated into view on January 21 and was
numbered by SWPC the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8178 [N12W41] was quiet and stable.
S8193 [N27W12] was quiet and stable.
S8194 [S24W54] is a relatively compact region. The region
had multiple magnetic delta configurations early in the day, however, the
main one disappeared after the M1 flare in the afternoon. Further C and
minor M class flaring is possible.
S8195 [N11E34] was quiet and stable.
S8196 [N18E34] developed further and was quiet. No spots have mature
penumbra. Note that SWPC considers
this and AR S8195 as one region.
S8200 [N23E08] was quiet and stable.
S8204 [N13E68] was quiet and stable.
S8205 [N15E03] was quiet and stable.
New region S8207 [N01W02] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.1 | 00:23 | 13192 | GOES16 | simultaneous smaller flare in AR S8194 | |
| C7.0 | 02:16 | 13192 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.1 | 02:53 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 04:14 | S8194 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 05:00 | S8194 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 05:46 | S8194 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 06:04 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 07:34 | GOES16 | |||
| C3.3 | 08:40 | S8194 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.3 | 10:50 | 13192 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 11:34 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.1 | 11:56 | 13190 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S8194 | |
| M1.1 | 12:26 | 13190 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S8194 | |
| C3.8 | 13:17 | S8196 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 14:11 | S8194 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 15:53 | behind SW limb | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13192 by SWPC | |
| C4.1 | 16:19 | S8194 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.6/1B | 17:02 | S26W51 | S8194 | GOES16 | |
| C2.0 | 19:27 | S8194 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.9 | 21:28 | S8194 | GOES16 | attributed by SWPC to weaker simultaneous flare in AR 13191 | |
| C8.9 | 22:25 | N10W54 | 13191 | GOES16 | simultaneous smaller flare in AR S8194 |
| C7.0 | 23:25 | 13192 | GOES16 | simultaneous smaller flare in AR 13190 | |
| C3.7 | 00:01 | S8194 | GOES16 |
January 21-22: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
January 20: A large filament eruption began near noon in the
southwest quadrant and apparently triggered a C5 flare in AR 13190 at 14:07
UT. A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1126) rotated across the central meridian on January 21-22. A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1127) will likely become Earth facing on January 24.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for January 23-25 with a chance of minor storm intervals on January 23 due to CME effects and on January 24 due to effects from CH1126.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13188 | 2023.01.10 2023.01.12 |
S23W65 | location: S23W68 | ||||||||
| 13191 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
3 | 8 | 5 | N12W57 | 0050 | CAO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N11W57 |
| 13192 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
16 | 32 | 16 | N16W42 | 0170 | DAI | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N18W43 |
| 13190 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
18 | 45 | 22 | S16W43 | 0720 | EKI | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0970 location: S14W47 |
| 13195 | 2023.01.13 2023.01.17 |
N21W64 |
 |
||||||||
| S8178 | 2023.01.13 | 14 | 5 | N12W41 | 0025 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13194 | 2023.01.13 2023.01.15 |
13 | S24W57 | 0130 | DAI |
location: S22W53 spotless, see AR S8194 |
|||||
| S8185 | 2023.01.16 | S13W07 | |||||||||
| S8186 | 2023.01.17 | S27W41 | |||||||||
| 13196 | 2023.01.17 2023.01.18 |
2 | 24 | 12 | N12W12 | 0010 | BXO | CRI |
 |
 |
area: 0060 location: N13W08 |
| 13198 | 2023.01.18 2023.01.19 |
3 | 17 | 5 | N27E17 | 0030 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0070 location: N25E17 |
| 13197 | 2023.01.18 2023.01.19 |
8 | 16 | 7 | N24E04 | 0010 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: N18E03 SWPC position is way off area: 0040 |
| S8193 | 2023.01.18 | 4 | 2 | N27W12 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8194 | 2023.01.19 | 27 | 17 | S24W54 | 0220 | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta | ||
| S8195 | 2023.01.19 | 4 | 2 | N12E34 | 0020 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| S8196 | 2023.01.19 | 33 | 17 | N18E34 | 0090 | DRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S8197 | 2023.01.19 | S11W51 | |||||||||
| S8198 | 2023.01.19 | S14W09 | |||||||||
| S8199 | 2023.01.19 | S49W13 | |||||||||
| S8200 | 2023.01.19 | 3 | N23E08 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 13199 | 2023.01.20 | 10 | N15E33 | 0090 | DAI | SWPC considers ARs S8195 and S8196 to be one group | |||||
| 13200 | 2023.01.21 2023.01.22 |
3 | 6 | 5 | N21E60 | 0040 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0090 location: N22E61 |
| S8203 | 2023.01.21 | S24E05 |
 |
||||||||
| S8204 | 2023.01.21 | 1 | N13E68 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S8205 | 2023.01.21 | 5 | 2 | N15E03 | 0012 | CRO |
 |
 |
reversed polarities | ||
| S8206 | 2023.01.21 | S30W01 |
 |
||||||||
| S8207 | 2023.01.22 | 1 | N01W02 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 76 | 240 | 117 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 166 | 400 | 247 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 119 | 288 | 165 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 183 | 220 | 198 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (86.0 projected, +5.1) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (91.4 projected, +5.4) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (96.3 projected, +4.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (99.5 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (102.3 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (107.1 projected, +4.8) | 11.13 |
| 2023.01 | 194.1 (1) | 104.9 (2A) / 147.8 (2B) / 173.2 (2C) | (113.1 projected, +6.0) | (9.5) | |
| 2023.02 | (118.2 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (121.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (126.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (132.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (135.7 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
