The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 13. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 349 and 541 km/sec. What was likely a CME was observed arriving at DSCOVR near 16:30 UT. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 208.5 - increasing 53.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 127.11). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 11 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.9). Three hour interval K indices: 21222134 (planetary), 21232223 (Boulder), 43332355 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 17 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 418) and in 17 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 292) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13182 [S18W35] decayed further losing
spots and area. There is still a chance of M class flares
Region 13184 [S13E16] displayed slow development in the trailing spot
section.
Region 13185 [N20W56] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13186 [N23E22] developed further and gained 2 small magnetic
deltas. Some decay was observed in the intermediate spot section. A major flare is possible.
Region 13187 [N14W22] was quiet and stable.
Region 13188 [S23E48] gained spots and was quiet.
New region 13189 [N20W28] emerged on January 11 and was numbered by
SWPC 2 days later.
New region 13190 [S14E72] rotated into view on January 12 with SWPC
assigning a region number the next day. The region played some part in an
unusual long duration M1.3 event peaking at 02:06 on January 14, the event
had its origin in AR 13191. A major flare is possible.
New region 13191 [N11E68] rotated into view on January 12 and was
numbered the next day by SWPC when quick development was observed.
New region 13192 [N18E75] rotated partly into view on January 12 and
received its NOAA number the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8155 [S22W80] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
S8170 [N19E49] was quiet and stable.
New region S8177 [N21E58] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8178 [N10E76] rotated into view with tiny spots.
New region S8179 [S23E65] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8180 [S18E20] emerged to the south of AR 13184 with
several spots.
New region S8181 [S22E55] emerged between AR 13188 and AR S8179.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C6.6 | 02:15 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.3 | 02:49 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.4/1N | 02:59 | N27E41 | 13186 | GOES16 | |
| C5.1 | 04:51 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3 | 06:58 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3 | 07:18 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 07:45 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.5 | 08:10 | N24E32 | 13186 | GOES16 | |
| C4.5 | 09:14 | S18W22 | 13182 | GOES16 | |
| C4.4 | 09:39 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| M3.9 | 10:15 | S19W84 | 13181 | GOES16 | |
| C8.4 | 15:08 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.5 | 16:25 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.0/1N | 17:01 | S17W27 | 13182 | GOES16 | |
| C6.1 | 17:35 | 13191 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.3 | 18:05 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 19:04 | 13191 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 19:35 | 13191 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13190 | |
| C5.0 | 20:51 | 13192 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.9/1N | 21:35 | S10E26 | 13184 | GOES16 | |
| C5.4 | 22:11 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.5 | 22:22 | 13181 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3 | 23:35 | 13191 | GOES16 |
January 12-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
January 11: AR 13184 was the source of a C8 flare at 21:00 UT. A partial
halo CME was observed after this event with the main ejecta off the
southeast limb. Effects from this CME could reach Earth on January 14 or 15.
Another partial halo CME was observed after an M3 flare in AR 13186 at 08:33
UT. There's minor chance that this CME could reach Earth on January 14.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected on January 14-15 due to CME effects. Quiet to unsettled is likely on January 16.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13181 | 2022.12.31 2023.01.01 |
10 | S21W87 | 0090 | EAI |
 |
rotated out of view SWPC considers this, ARs S8155 and S8167 as one region |
||||
| 13182 | 2023.01.04 2023.01.05 |
20 | 57 | 23 | S18W34 | 0300 | EKI | DKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S18W35 |
| S8155 | 2023.01.05 | 8 | 4 | S22W80 | 0040 | DRO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13185 | 2023.01.06 2023.01.09 |
6 | 14 | 6 | N19W55 | 0060 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N20W56 |
| 13184 | 2023.01.08 2023.01.08 |
15 | 42 | 25 | S12E13 | 0300 | EHO | FAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0450 location: S13E16 |
| S8161 | 2023.01.08 | S17W54 | |||||||||
| S8162 | 2023.01.08 | S31W48 | |||||||||
| 13187 | 2023.01.09 2023.01.10 |
2 | 1 | N16W24 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N14W22 | ||
| 13186 | 2023.01.09 2023.01.10 |
18 | 46 | 24 | N25E24 | 0500 | EKI | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N23E22 area: 0860 |
| S8165 | 2023.01.09 | S07W39 | |||||||||
| 13188 | 2023.01.10 2023.01.12 |
4 | 15 | 7 | S23E45 | 0020 | DRO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: S23E48 area: 0070 |
| 13189 | 2023.01.11 2023.01.13 |
2 | 7 | 4 | N23W31 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N20W28 area: 0020 |
| S8170 | 2023.01.12 | 2 | 1 | N19E49 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13191 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
3 | 10 | 7 | N12E71 | 0090 | CSO | DAC |
 |
 |
location: N11E68 area: 0260 |
| 13192 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
2 | 7 | 4 | N19E75 | 0100 | DSO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0240 |
| 13190 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
1 | 12 | 5 | S13E70 | 0180 | HSX | CKO |
 |
 |
location: S14E72 area: 0880 |
| S8174 | 2023.01.12 | N20W36 |
 |
||||||||
| S8177 | 2023.01.13 | 4 | 2 | N21E58 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S8178 | 2023.01.13 | 2 | 1 | N10E76 | 0020 | HRX |
 |
||||
| S8179 | 2023.01.13 | 7 | 3 | S23E65 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
renumbered | ||
| S8180 | 2023.01.13 | 11 | 4 | S18E20 | 0025 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S8181 | 2023.01.13 | 2 | 1 | S22E55 | 0005 | HRX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 81 | 248 | 122 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 181 | 418 | 292 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 139 | 313 | 187 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 199 | 230 | 234 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (86.0 projected, +5.1) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (91.4 projected, +5.4) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (96.3 projected, +4.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (99.5 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (102.3 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (107.1 projected, +4.8) | 11.2 |
| 2023.01 | 175.9 (1) | 53.1 (2A) / 126.6 (2B) / 142.0 (2C) | (113.1 projected, +6.0) | (8.1) | |
| 2023.02 | (118.2 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (121.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (126.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (132.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (135.7 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
