The geomagnetic field was quiet on December 14. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 336 and 318 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 164.7 - increasing 45.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 122.98). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.1). Three hour interval K indices: 01100122 (planetary), 02002221 (Boulder), 00000344 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 291) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 197) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13157 [N16W81] was quiet and stable.
Region 13160 [N22W28] was quiet and stable.
Region 13162 [S13W09] was quiet and stable.
Region 13163 [S20E13] gained spots and area and became significantly
more complex. Major flares are possible.
Region 13164 [S19W72] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13165 [S20W49] developed 3 moderate to strong magnetic deltas
in the trailing spot section and became very active producing many M class
flares. Further major flares are likely.
Region 13166 [S08E03] developed significantly late in the day and may
have the potential to produce minor M class flares.
Region 13167 [N19W12] decayed after noon and was quiet.
New region 13168 [S16E68] rotated into view on December 13 and was
numbered by SWPC the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8088 [S29W25] was quiet and stable.
New region S8096 [N15E17] emerged with a tiny spot.
AR 13153 produced flares while at and behind the southwest limb. C1 flare: C1.3 @ 00:32 UT
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.5 | 03:32 | 13153 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.9 | 04:11 | 13153 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 04:39 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 05:49 | S20W39 | 13165 | GOES16 | |
| C6.2 | 07:27 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.4/1N | 07:40 | 13165 | GOES16 | moderate type II radio sweep | |
| M1.1/1F | 08:31 | 13153 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13165 | |
| C4.8 | 08:53 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.3 | 09:27 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 10:01 | 13163 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.2 | 10:34 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 11:59 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| M4.1 | 12:31 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 12:58 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.5 | 13:26 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| M6.3/2B | 14:42 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| M3.2 | 14:59 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 19:11 | 13165 | GOES16 | wrongly attributed to AR 13163 by SWPC | |
| C6.4 | 19:33 | 13165 | GOES16 | wrongly attributed to AR 13163 by SWPC | |
| C6.1 | 19:43 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.3 | 20:50 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.2 | 20:58 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.3 | 21:39 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.9 | 21:53 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| M4.5 | 22:06 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.3 | 23:45 | 13165 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.9 | 23:55 | 13165 | GOES16 |
December 12-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery. (Data for December 14 still under review)
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1119) will rotate across the central meridian on December 14-15. CH1119 could be too far to the south to cause a disturbance. A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1120) could become Earth facing on December 17-18.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for December 15-16. A high speed stream from CH1119 could cause a few unsettled and active intervals on December 17-18.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13153 | 2022.11.30 2022.12.01 |
2 | S17W97 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
rotated out of view | ||||
| 13156 | 2022.12.01 2022.12.02 |
1 | N26W95 | 0080 | CSO | AXX |
 |
location: N25W89 rotated out of view |
|||
| 13061 | 2022.12.02 2022.12.08 |
N26W86 | location: N24W77 | ||||||||
| 13157 | 2022.12.03 2022.12.03 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N16W76 | 0100 | HSX | HSX |
 |
location: N16W68 area: 0180 |
|
| 13159 | 2022.12.05 2022.12.06 |
N29W45 | location: N29W38 | ||||||||
| 13164 | 2022.12.05 2022.12.11 |
2 | 2 | 2 | S20W73 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0006 |
| 13160 | 2022.12.06 2022.12.06 |
1 | 3 | 1 | N23W29 | 0080 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N22W28 area: 0100 |
| 13162 | 2022.12.07 2022.12.09 |
1 | 6 | 1 | S13W09 | 0080 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0130 |
| 13163 | 2022.12.09 2022.12.10 |
22 | 55 | 37 | S20E15 | 0350 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S20E13 area: 0580 |
| S8075 | 2022.12.09 | S24W27 | |||||||||
| S8077 | 2022.12.09 | S13W37 | |||||||||
| 13165 | 2022.12.10 2022.12.11 |
12 | 40 | 23 | S20W49 | 0200 | DAC | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0470 location: S20W49 |
| 13166 | 2022.12.10 2022.12.11 |
6 | 33 | 20 | S09E02 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0140 location: S08E03 |
| S8080 | 2022.12.10 | S03W31 | |||||||||
| S8081 | 2022.12.11 | N17W22 |
 |
||||||||
| S8082 | 2022.12.11 | S24W36 | |||||||||
| 13167 | 2022.12.12 2022.12.13 |
15 | 25 | 15 | N20W12 | 0190 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0270 location: N19W12 |
| S8084 | 2022.12.12 | N20W06 | |||||||||
| S8085 | 2022.12.12 | S19W45 |
 |
||||||||
| S8087 | 2022.12.12 | N29W18 | |||||||||
| S8088 | 2022.12.12 | 1 | S32W19 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S8091 | 2022.12.13 | N26E25 |
 |
||||||||
| 13168 | 2022.12.13 2022.12.14 |
1 | 13 | 7 | S16E68 | 0090 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0130 |
| S8093 | 2022.12.13 | S45E11 |
 |
||||||||
| S8094 | 2022.12.13 | S09E11 |
 |
||||||||
| S8095 | 2022.12.13 | S43W08 |
 |
||||||||
| S8096 | 2022.12.14 | 1 | N15E17 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 64 | 181 | 107 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 174 | 291 | 197 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 112 | 224 | 150 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 191 | 160 | 158 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.8 (+4.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.9 (+4.1) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.1 (+4.2) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.3 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | (80.7 projected, +3.6) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (85.7 projected, +5.0) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 75.4 | (91.4 projected, +5.7) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.3 | (96.3 projected, +4.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (99.5 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (102.3 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 143.7 (1) | 50.1 (2A) / 110.9 (2B) / 109.3 (2C) | (107.1 projected, +4.8) | (9.7) | |
| 2023.01 | (113.1 projected, +6.0) | ||||
| 2023.02 | (118.1 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (121.2 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (126.6 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (132.4 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
