Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 17, 2022 at 05:05 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (November 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (November 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (November 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (November 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (November 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was very quiet on November 16. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 322 and 394 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 132.9 - increasing 17.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 119.65). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.1). Three hour interval K indices: 00010111 (planetary), 00001210 (Boulder), 00000220 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 144) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 114) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13140 [N25W81] rotated partly out of view and produced several C flares. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 01:08, C1.7 @ 02:17, C1.6 @ 03:22, C1.6 @ 22:41, C1.8 @ 23:07 UT
Region 13141 [N14W82] rotated partly out of view and was quiet.
Region 13145 [N24W73] produced several C flares and developed slowly in the southern spot section. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 21:40 UT
Region 13146 [N32W06] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13147 [S11E71] rotated into view on November 15 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.
New region 13148 [S32E58] rotated into view on November 15 and received its NOAA number the following day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S8001 [S25W24] was quiet and stable.
S8006 [S17W02] reemerged with tiny spots.
New region S8010 [N21E77] rotated into view with a few spots.
New region S8011 [N44W27] emerged with tiny spots at a high latitude.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C3.4 05:38   13140 GOES16 simultaneous flare at the NE limb
C2.1 06.18   13145 GOES16 simultaneous flare in AR 13140
C2.3 07:01   13140 GOES16  
C2.3 07:30   13140 GOES16  
C2.8 08:16   13140 GOES16 incorrectly attributed to AR 13145 by SWPC
C2.6 11:30   13145 GOES16  
C2.1 12:24   13145 GOES16  
C2.0 12:59   13145 GOES16 incorrectly attributed to AR 13141 by SWPC
C2.2 13:19   13140 GOES16  
C2.5 13:43   13145 GOES16  
C3.3 15:55   13145 GOES16 LDE
C3.0 16:35   13145 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 14-16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A large well defined recurrent coronal hole (CH1113) in the southern hemisphere will be Earth facing on November 16-18, however, CH1113 may be too far to the south to cause a geomagnetic disturbance.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Mostly quiet conditions are expected on November 17-19. There is a chance of unsettled and active intervals on November 20-21 should the high speed stream from CH1113 reach Earth.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13140 2022.11.03
2022.11.04
13 3 2 N23W89 0550 EHC HAX

location: N25W81

13141 2022.11.03
2022.11.04
3 3 2 N14W82 0120 CSO CAO

area: 0220

13143 2022.11.06
2022.11.07
      S13W71           location: S15W61
13145 2022.11.10 4 13 7 N25W73 0030 DAO DRI area: 0060

location: N24W73

S7996 2022.11.10       S31W36            
S7998 2022.11.11       N01W49            
13146 2022.11.12
2022.11.13
2 5 3 N32W08 0010 BXO CRO area: 0030

location: N32W06

S8000 2022.11.12       N25W36            
S8001 2022.11.12   3 1 S25W24 0006   BXO  
S8002 2022.11.13       N18W54            
S8003 2022.11.13       N30W27            
S8004 2022.11.13       S13W33            
S8005 2022.11.13       N09W32            
S8006 2022.11.14   3 1 S17W02 0005   BXO    
S8007 2022.11.15       N28E25          
13148 2022.11.15
2022.11.16
2 5 4 S32E60 0010 BXO BXO location: S32E58
13147 2022.11.15
2022.11.16
1 3 2 S11E71 0120 HSX HKX area: 0270
S8010 2022.11.16   3 2 N21E77 0010   BXO    
S8011 2022.11.16   2   N44W27 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 25 43 24  
Sunspot number: 85 143 114  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 50 69 50  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 94 79 91  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.1 (+4.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (78.5 projected, +5.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (84.4 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (91.6 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (98.2 projected, +6.6) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (103.1 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (106.3 projected, +3.2) 11.16
2022.11 133.0 (1)   36.2 (2A) / 72.3 (2B) / 89.6 (2C) (109.1 projected, +2.8) (8.9)
2022.12       (113.9 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (119.9 projected, +6.0)  
2023.02       (124.9 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (128.0 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (133.4 projected, +5.4)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.