Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on October 20, 2022 at 03:30 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (October 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (October 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (October 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (October 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (October 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on October 19. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 398 and 493 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 113.2 - decreasing 23.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 116.96). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.6). Three hour interval K indices: 12111011 (planetary), 11211101 (Boulder), 21210003 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 141) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 102) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13122 [N26W79] developed slowly and quietly after noon.
Region 13124 [S34W79] decayed further and rotated partly out of view. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 00:35, C1.1 @ 07:37 UT
Region 13125 [S24W26] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13126 [S10E16] emerged on October 16 with SWPC numbering the region 3 days later. Fast development was observed during the day and a magnetic delta formed near the center of the region. A minor M class flare is possible. C1 flare: C1.0 @ 23:38 UT.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7918 [S24W34] was quiet and stable.
S7935 [S23E37] gained spots and was quiet.
New region S7936 [S19W00] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7937 [N26E38] emerged with tiny spots.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C3.5 17:50 S09E19 13126 GOES16  
C4.2 21:45   13126 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 17-19: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent and poorly defined trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1106) closed on October 16 as it was rotating across the central meridian. A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1107) will likely become Earth facing on October 20-22.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on October 20-22 with a chance of unsettled intervals on October 20-21 if CH1106 becomes the dominant solar wind source.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
S7918 2022.10.10   6   S24W34 0008   AXX  
13121 2022.10.11
2022.10.13
      N24W25        

location: N23W24

S7922 2022.10.11       S16W35            
13122 2022.10.13
2022.10.15
1 5 3 N26W78 0010 AXX CRO area: 0030
13125 2022.10.13
2022.10.17
1 4 1 S25W27 0010 AXX BXO  
13124 2022.10.14
2022.10.16
5 1 1 S33W79 0180 DAO HRX  
13126 2022.10.16
2022.10.19
3 31 21 S11E15 0030 CRI DAI beta-delta

location: S10E16

area: 0150

S7935 2022.10.17   9 4 S23E37 0020   CRO  
S7936 2022.10.19   3 1 S19W00 0007   BXO    
S7937 2022.10.19   2 1 N26E38 0005   BXO    
Total spot count: 10 61 32  
Sunspot number: 50 141 102  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 18 75 46  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 55 78 82  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 (74.2 projected, +5.3) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (80.6 projected, +6.4) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (86.5 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (93.7 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (100.2 projected, +6.5) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (105.2 projected, +5.0) 12.18
2022.10 141.8 (1)   59.8 (2A) / 97.6 (2B) / 113.2 (2C) (108.3 projected, +3.1) (11.5)
2022.11       (111.2 projected, +2.9)  
2022.12       (115.9 projected, +4.7)  
2023.01       (122.0 projected, +6.1)  
2023.02       (127.0 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (130.0 projected, +3.0)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.