The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 9. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 314 and 398 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 190.9 - increasing 37.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 126.06). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.1). Three hour interval K indices: 20011122 (planetary), 21121232 (Boulder), 31000333 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 369) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 229) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13181 [S16W34] developed further and
gained a magnetic delta.
Region 13182 [S17E19] has several minor magnetic delta and could
produce a major flare. Significant decay was observed in the trailing spot
sections.
Region 13183 [S17W65] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13184 [S13E68] is a compact region with a complex magnetic
layout in the leading spot section. A fairly long neutral line and positive
polarity flux sandwiched between negative polarity flux areas in the
trailing part of the leading spot section, probably contributed to the major
X1 flare. Further M and X class flaring is likely.
New region 13185 [N19E01] was first observed with spots on January 6
and was numbered 3 days later by SWPC when new flux emerged.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8133 [N17W64] decayed slowly and quietly
S8135 [N21W60] decayed losing mature penumbra.
S8155 [S22W29] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
S8161 [S17W02] was quiet and stable.
New region S8163 [N13E31] emerged with several
spots late in the day.
New region S8164 [N23E78] rotated into view with a few small spots.
The region is very unstable and was the source of a major M5.1 flare at
00:16 UT on January 10.
New region S8165 [S07E15] was observed with tiny spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C5.1 | 00:43 | S21E39 | 13182 | GOES16 | |
| M1.1 | 01:02 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3/1N | 02:00 | 13181 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.7 | 02:07 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 04:51 | S16E82 | 13184 | GOES16 | |
| C3.0 | 05:52 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 06:18 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 07:05 | S16E82 | 13184 | GOES16 | |
| C2.8 | 07:31 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.1/1N | 09:01 | 13181 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13184 | |
| C5.1 | 10:04 | 13181 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3 | 10:37 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 11:32 | 13181 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 12:29 | 13181 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 13:22 | 13181 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 14:20 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.8/1F | 15:05 | S15E74 | 13184 | GOES16 | |
| C5.1 | 15:46 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.1 | 16:08 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.6 | 16:48 | S16W29 | 13181 | GOES16 | |
| C3.0 | 17:21 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 17:48 | 13184 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S8164 | |
| C2.6 | 17:57 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| X1.9/3B | 18:50 | S14E72 | 13184 | GOES16 | much smaller simultaneous flare in AR S8164 |
| C5.9 | 20:55 | N24E79 | S8164 | GOES16 | |
| C3.0 | 21:18 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.1 | 22:09 | N24E80 | S8164 | GOES16 | |
| C4.3 | 22:34 | S8164 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.7 | 22:58 | S17E23 | S8155 | GOES16 |
January 7-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1124) may have been too far to the north to cause geomagnetic effects. CH1124 rotated across the central meridian on January 7.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected on January 10-12 with a chance of unsettled and active intervals on January 10-11 should effects from CH1124 reach Earth.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| S8133 | 2022.12.29 | 2 | 1 | N17W64 | 0090 | CSO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13180 | 2022.12.30 | 3 | N18W63 | 0100 | HSX | SWPC considers AR S8133 and S8135 to be one region | |||||
| S8135 | 2022.12.30 | 3 | 2 | N21W60 | 0020 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| 13181 | 2022.12.31 2023.01.01 |
35 | 34 | 19 | S19W33 | 0700 | EKC | DAC |
 |
 |
area: 0200 beta-gamma-delta location: S16W34 SWPC considers this and AR S8155 as one region |
| S8146 | 2023.01.02 | S13W53 | |||||||||
| S8150 | 2023.01.03 | N14W46 | |||||||||
| 13183 | 2023.01.03 2023.01.05 |
6 | 11 | 3 | S17W62 | 0110 | CSO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0090 location: S17W65 |
| S8153 | 2023.01.04 | S10W39 | |||||||||
| 13182 | 2023.01.04 2023.01.05 |
30 | 102 | 51 | S17E20 | 0950 | EKC | FKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S17E19 |
| S8155 | 2023.01.05 | 38 | 23 | S22W29 | 0690 | DKC |
 |
 |
|||
| S8157 | 2023.01.05 | S02W12 | |||||||||
| 13185 | 2023.01.06 2023.01.09 |
4 | 19 | 11 | N20W00 | 0030 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0050 location: N19E01 |
| 13184 | 2023.01.08 2023.01.08 |
4 | 17 | 13 | S14E67 | 0400 | HKX | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0470 |
| S8161 | 2023.01.08 | 5 | S17W02 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S8162 | 2023.01.08 | S31E04 |
 |
||||||||
| S8163 | 2023.01.09 | 7 | 3 | N13E31 | 0025 | DRO |
 |
||||
| S8164 | 2023.01.09 | 7 | 3 | N23E78 | 0050 | DRI |
 |
||||
| S8165 | 2023.01.09 | 4 | S07E15 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 82 | 249 | 129 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 142 | 369 | 229 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 125 | 306 | 186 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 156 | 203 | 183 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (86.0 projected, +5.1) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (91.4 projected, +5.4) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (96.3 projected, +4.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (99.5 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (102.3 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (107.1 projected, +4.8) | 11.2 |
| 2023.01 | 164.3 (1) | 30.0 (2A) / 103.3 (2B) / 138.7 (2C) | (113.1 projected, +6.0) | (8.6) | |
| 2023.02 | (118.2 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (121.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (126.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (132.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (135.7 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
