Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on December 11, 2022 at 09:55 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (December 4, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (December 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (December 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (December 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (December 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on December 10 due to (weakening) effects from CH1118. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 364 and 530 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 141.7 - increasing 4.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 122.21). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.4). Three hour interval K indices: 32131232 (planetary), 31142221 (Boulder), 43111243 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 293) and in 14 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 209) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13153 [S17W48] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13156 [N25W37] was quiet and stable.
Region 13157 [N16W24] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13158 [N22W78] decayed slowly losing all trailing spots.
Region 13159 [N29E14] was quiet and stable.
Region 13160 [N22E24] was quiet and stable.
Region 13161 [N25W27] decayed slowly and produced a few C flares. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 01:23 UT
Region 13162 [S13E44] was quiet and stable.
New region 13163 [S19E62] rotated into view on December 9 and was numbered the next day by SWPC. The region was unstable and produced many C flares, however, a reduction in flare frequency was noted towards the end of the day. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 00:50, C1.2 @ 03:52, C1.2 @ 05:40, C1.3 @ 09:57, C1.2 @ 13:05, C1.7 @ 18:11, C1.3 @ 20:08 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S8063 [N17W41] was quiet and stable.
S8076 [N30W37] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S8078 [S20E05] emerged with a few spots.
New region S8079 [S08E64] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8080 [S03E21] emerged with a tiny spot.

A C1.1 flare was recorded at 14:42 UT from a location just behind the northeast limb.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C3.1 06:15   13163 GOES16  
C3.9 06:49   13163 GOES16  
C2.1 08:02   13163 GOES16  
C4.6 10:26   13161 GOES16  
C5.3 10:44   13163 GOES16  
C2.3 11:24   13163 GOES16  
C2.0 11:52   13163 GOES16  
C5.2 16:11   13163 GOES16  
C4.8/1N 20:46 N25W27 13161 GOES16  
C2.3 22:09   13163 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

December 8-10: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on December 11. Quiet is expected for December 12-14.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13158 2022.11.30
2022.12.04
  2 1 N23W78 0007   AXX

location: N22W78

13153 2022.11.30
2022.12.01
5 18 9 S17W45 0700 FHO FHO

location: S17W48

area: 0850

13156 2022.12.01
2022.12.02
6 14 6 N25W39 0070 CSO HSX location: N25W37

area: 0100

S8056 2022.12.02       N28W44            
13061 2022.12.02
2022.12.08
4 15 5 N26W30 0010 BXO CRO location: N25W27

area: 0030

13157 2022.12.03
2022.12.03
19 51 23 N16W23 0230 ESI ESI

area: 0310

location: N16W24

13159 2022.12.05
2022.12.06
  4 1 N29E11 0008   BXO location: N29E14
S8063 2022.12.05   5 2 N17W41 0008   BXO  
S8065 2022.12.05       S19W19          
13160 2022.12.06
2022.12.06
1 5 1 N22E22 0080 HSX CSO

location: N22E24

area: 0120

S8067 2022.12.06       S20W34            
S8068 2022.12.06       N35W32            
S8069 2022.12.06       N32W56            
S8070 2022.12.07       S22W47            
13162 2022.12.07
2022.12.09
1 7 3 S13E43 0070 HSX CSO area: 0140

location: S13E44

S8072 2022.12.07       S31W44            
S8073 2022.12.08       N28W10            
13163 2022.12.09
2022.12.10
5 11 7 S20E64 0130 DSO EHI location: S19E62

area: 0350

S8075 2022.12.09       S24E25          
S8076 2022.12.09   9 5 N30W37 0035   CRO  
S8077 2022.12.09       S13E15          
S8078 2022.12.10   9 4 S20E05 0025   CRO    
S8079 2022.12.10   2 1 S08E64 0007   BXO    
S8080 2022.12.10   1 1 S03E21 0003   AXX    
Total spot count: 41 153 69  
Sunspot number: 111 293 209  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 76 202 118  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 122 161 167  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.1 (+4.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 77.3 (+4.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (80.7 projected, +3.6) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (85.7 projected, +5.0) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (91.4 projected, +5.7) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (96.3 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (99.5 projected, +3.2) 11.16
2022.11 123.4 120.7 77.6 (102.3 projected, +2.8) 9.33
2022.12 139.6 (1)   30.2 (2A) / 93.7 (2B) / 96.2 (2C) (107.1 projected, +4.8) (11.5)
2023.01       (113.1 projected, +6.0)  
2023.02       (118.1 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (121.2 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (126.6 projected, +5.4)  
2023.05       (132.4 projected, +5.8)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.