|Charts (* = updated daily)||Data and archive|
|Solar wind (*)||Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)|
|Electron fluence (*)||Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (February 4, 2023)|
|Solar cycle||Solar cycles 23-25 (February 1, 2023)||Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)|
|Cycle 24-25 progress (February 1, 2023)||Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)|
|Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020)||POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]|
|Comparison of cycles 21-25 (February 1, 2023)||3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013|
|Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (February 1, 2023)||4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014|
|Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (January 21, 2023)||Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)|
|Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing||Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing|
The geomagnetic field was quiet on February 18. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 370 and 450 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 167.2 - decreasing 31.4 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 133.49). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.5). Three hour interval K indices: 12112122 (planetary), ******** (Boulder), 02111025 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 285) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 181) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13216 [N23W84] rotated almost out of view and was quiet.
Region 13217 [S12W57] was quiet and stable.
Region 13219 [S08W62] was quiet and stable.
Region 13220 [S13W41] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13224 [N22W45] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13225 [S21W70] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13226 [N10W33] became more unstable when a small patch of negative polarity flux emerged to the southwest of the largest penumbra. An M class flare is possible.
Region 13227 [S03W22] reemerged with tiny spots.
Region 13229 [N26E47] was mostly quiet recovering from the X2 flare on the previous day. Another major flare is possible.
New region 13230 [S22E71] rotated into view on February 17 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8279 [N21W23] developed slowly as new flux emerged.
S8280 [S37W20] reemerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8289 [S17E05] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8290 [N17E30] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S8291 [N28W05] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UT)||Location||Source||Recorded by||Comment|
February 16: A partial halo CME was observed after the C9 flare in
AR13216. A glancing blow is possible on February 19-20.
February 17: The X2.2/2B flare in AR 13229 at 20:16 UT was associated with a fast and wide full halo CME. The CME could impact Earth between noon on February and noon on February 20 and cause active to severe storm conditions.
February 18: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1130) was Earth facing on February 14. A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1131) rotated the central meridian on February 17.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to severe storm is expected on February 19-20 due to the February 17 CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on February 21-22 due to effects from CH1131.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
|Active region||SWPC date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
|Total spot count:||39||135||61|
|Sunspot number:||109||285||181||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||84||183||104||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||120||157||145|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number (4)||Average ap
|166.3||146.1 (SC24 peak)||110.5||10.70|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||112.5||116.4 (solar max)||7.88|
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
|2022.08||114.2||117.1||74.6||(92.4 projected, +5.9)||10.92|
|2022.09||135.1||136.5||96.0||(97.4 projected, +5.0)||12.18|
|2022.10||133.5||132.7||95.4||(100.5 projected, +3.1)||11.16|
|2022.11||123.4||120.7||77.6||(103.4 projected, +2.9)||9.33|
|2022.12||147.9||143.4||113.1||(108.2 projected, +4.8)||10.99|
|2023.01||182.4||176.6||143.6||(114.2 projected, +6.0)||8.73|
|2023.02||171.9 (1)||83.1 (2A) / 129.3 (2B) / 157.5 (2C)||(119.2 projected, +5.0)||(11.3)|
|2023.03||(122.3 projected, +3.1)|
|2023.04||(127.7 projected, +5.4)|
|2023.05||(133.5 projected, +5.8)|
|2023.06||(136.8 projected, +3.3)|
|2023.07||(136.3 projected, -0.5)|
|2023.11||(142.5 projected max SC25)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.