Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 7, 2022 at 07:50 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (November 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (November 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (November 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (November 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (November 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was very quiet on November 6. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 383 and 447 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 130.8 - decreasing 32.4 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 118.23). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.0). Three hour interval K indices: 11110001 (planetary), 11221201 (Boulder), 20000012 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 202) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 116) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13135 [N27W53] was quiet and stable.
Region 13136 [S07W30] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13137 [N38E03] was quiet and stable.
Region 13139 [N29E07] decayed quickly and could become spotless today.
Region 13140 [N26E41] was quiet and stable.
Region 13141 [N14E53] displayed only minor changes with no change in total penumbral area compared to the previous day. Only a few small spots were added. Another M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 01:13, C1.7 @ 12:10, C1.3 @ 15:24, C1.6 @ 21:25, C1.7 @ 21:50 UT
New region 13142 [N26E21] emerged on November 3 and was noticed by SWPC 3 days later.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7973 [N29W23] was quiet and stable.
S7985 [N20W10] was quiet and stable.
S7986 [S25E21] was quiet and stable.
S7988 [N17E65] was quiet and stable.
New region S7989 [S15E71] rotated into view and developed slowly.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C3.7 17:15 N15E59 13141 GOES16  
M5.2 00:11 on November 7 (flare began at 23:59 on Nov.16)   13141 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 4-6: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A relatively small southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1112) will rotate across the central meridian on November 6-7.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on November 7 becoming quiet on November 8-9. Quiet to unsettled conditions are possible on November 10-11 due to effects from CH1112.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13135 2022.10.27
2022.10.28
1 4 1 N26W54 0100 HSX CSO location: N27W53
S7963 2022.10.29       S03W35            
13136 2022.10.30
2022.10.31
1 5 1 S08W33 0010 AXX BXO location: S07W30
S7967 2022.10.30       S29W44          
13137 2022.10.30
2022.11.01
1 2 1 N37E01 0010 AXX HRX location: N38E03
13138 2022.10.31
2022.11.01
      S39W57            
S7971 2022.11.01       S26W16            
S7972 2022.11.01       N21W14            
S7973 2022.11.01   12   N29W23 0015   BXO  
13139 2022.11.01
2022.11.03
  3 1 N28E10 0005   BXO location: N29E07
13140 2022.11.03
2022.11.04
1 9 1 N27E38 0100 HSX CSO area: 0170

location: N26E41

13142 2022.11.03
2022.11.06
5 14 4 N26E21 0010 BXO DRO area: 0030
S7978 2022.11.03       N36W04          
13141 2022.11.03
2022.11.04
9 19 12 N15E51 0460 EKO EKO location: N14E53

area: 0830

S7981 2022.11.03       S16W10            
S7982 2022.11.04       N19E05            
S7983 2022.11.04       S07W18            
S7984 2022.11.04       N08W16            
S7985 2022.11.04   4   N20W10 0005   BXO  
S7986 2022.11.05   5 3 S25E21 0010   BXO  
S7987 2022.11.05       S06W10          
S7988 2022.11.05   1   N17E65 0001   AXX  
S7989 2022.11.06   4 2 S15E71 0015   DRO    
Total spot count: 18 82 26  
Sunspot number: 78 202 116  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 38 111 55  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 86 111 93  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.1 (+4.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (78.5 projected, +5.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (84.4 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (91.6 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (98.2 projected, +6.6) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (103.1 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (106.3 projected, +3.2) 11.4
2022.11 127.1 (1)   13.9 (2A) / 69.7 (2B) / 95.6 (2C) (109.1 projected, +2.8) (12.2)
2022.12       (113.9 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (119.9 projected, +6.0)  
2023.02       (124.9 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (128.0 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (133.4 projected, +5.4)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.