The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on October 11. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 414 and 474 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 150.3 - increasing 6.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 116.04). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.1). Three hour interval K indices: 32111112 (planetary), 32212222 (Boulder), 43102144 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 236) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 148) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13116 [N29W55] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13118 [N09W05] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13119 [N29W15] decayed in the leading spot section while
development was observed in the central spot section. A minor M class flare
is possible. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 01:43 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7901 [N23W55] decayed slowly and remains
capable of producing M class flares. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 12:54, C1.1 @ 20:40
UT
S7912 [N18W28] was quiet and stable.
S7917 [S15W02] was quiet and stable.
S7918 [S28E63] was quiet and stable.
New region S7919 [N18W62] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7920 [N22E79] rotated into view with a small spot.
New region S7921 [S22E70] emerged near the southeast limb with tiny
spots.
New region S7922 [S14E68] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.3 | 02:04 | N29W03 | 13119 | GOES16 | |
| C2.0 | 02:33 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 03:43 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 04:33 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| M3.9/SB | 08:42 | N22W42 | S7901 | GOES16 | moderate type II radio sweep, CME off west limb |
| M1.5 | 10:52 | S7901 | GOES16 | moderate type II radio sweep, CME off west limb | |
| C3.6 | 16:45 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.5 | 18:14 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.1 | 18:19 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 19:31 | 13119 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.9 | 21:21 | 13119 | GOES16 |
October 9-11: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in potentially geoeffective positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected on October 12-15.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13112 | 2022.09.30 2022.09.30 |
12 | N22W54 | 0330 | FKC |
 |
location: N19W66 Keeping the original SWPC number for data integrity SWPC has split this off as AR 13120 see AR S7901 |
||||
| S7901 | 2022.09.30 | 36 | 18 | N23W55 | 0480 | FKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta SWPC has this as AR 13112 |
||
| S7902 | 2022.09.30 | N27W58 | |||||||||
| 13116 | 2022.10.01 2022.10.03 |
3 | 11 | 3 | N29W53 | 0110 | CSO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N29W55 area: 0170 |
| 13118 | 2022.10.05 2022.10.06 |
3 | 13 | 5 | N09W06 | 0010 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
area: 0025 location: N09W05 |
| S7912 | 2022.10.05 | 5 | N18W28 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 13119 | 2022.10.06 2022.10.07 |
14 | 41 | 23 | N28W18 | 0150 | DSI | DSI |
 |
 |
area: 0260 location: N29W15 |
| S7915 | 2022.10.07 | N31W00 | |||||||||
| 13120 | 2022.10.07 | N18W67 | see AR 13112 | ||||||||
| S7916 | 2022.10.09 | N37E25 | |||||||||
| S7917 | 2022.10.09 | 6 | 2 | S15W02 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S7918 | 2022.10.10 | 2 | 1 | S28E63 | 0006 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| S7919 | 2022.10.11 | 4 | 2 | N18W62 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S7920 | 2022.10.11 | 1 | 1 | N22E79 | 0020 | HRX |
 |
||||
| S7921 | 2022.10.11 | 6 | 3 | S22E70 | 0015 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S7922 | 2022.10.11 | 1 | S14E68 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 32 | 126 | 58 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 72 | 236 | 148 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 52 | 158 | 90 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 79 | 130 | 118 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.8 (+4.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.9 (+4.1) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | (74.2 projected, +5.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (80.6 projected, +6.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | (86.5 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (93.7 projected, +7.2) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 75.4 | (100.2 projected, +6.5) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.3 | (105.2 projected, +5.0) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 156.1 (1) | 44.9 (2A) / 126.5 (2B) / 119.1 (2C) | (108.3 projected, +3.1) | (13.8) | |
| 2022.11 | (111.2 projected, +2.9) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (115.9 projected, +4.7) | ||||
| 2023.01 | (122.0 projected, +6.1) | ||||
| 2023.02 | (127.0 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (130.0 projected, +3.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
