|Charts (* = updated daily)||Data and archive|
|Solar wind (*)||Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)|
|Electron fluence (*)||Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (March 1, 2022)|
|Solar cycle||Solar cycles 23-25 (March 1, 2022)||Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)|
|Cycle 24-25 progress (March 1, 2022)||Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)|
|Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020)||POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]|
|Comparison of cycles 21-25 (March 1, 2022)||3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013|
|Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (March 1, 2022)||4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014|
|Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021)||Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)|
|Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing||Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing|
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on March 30. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. A solar wind shock was observed at 01:41 UT on March 31 at DSCOVR, the arrival of one or both CMEs observed on March 28. The geomagnetic field has since been at minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 151 - increasing 39.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 89.91). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.1). Three hour interval K indices: 01110224 (planetary), 01032323 (Boulder), 10110246 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 344) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 197) SDO/HMI images.
Region 12974 [S20W38] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12975 [N13W37] saw consolidation in the central and eastern parts and less polarity intermixing. The region could produce another major flare as it still has a magnetic delta. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 01:40, C1.3 @ 08:10, C1.1 @ 10:17 UT.
Region 12976 [N15W20] was mostly quiet and stable. Numerous tiny spots emerged in the trailing spot section and there is some polarity intermixing in that area. An M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 01:12, C1.2 @ 08:42 UT.
Region 12978 [S17E38] was mostly quiet and stable and has M class flare potential.
Region 12979 [S19W14] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12980 [N08W53] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7455 [S24W82] developed late in the day as new flux emerged.
S7458 [S25E46] developed late in the day with many new spots forming. There is polarity intermixing and an M class flare is possible.
S7462 [S14E09] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7465 [S04W50] was quiet and stable. This is an SC24 group.
S7466 [N21W45] was quiet and stable.
S7467 [S19W01] was quiet and stable.
S7468 [S19E74] was quiet and stable.
New region S7469 [S17E59] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7470 [N23E82] rotated into view.
New region S7471 [N12E28] emerged with tiny spots.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UT)||Location||Source||Recorded by||Comment|
|C2.3||06:46||12975||GOES16||attributed to AR 12978 by SWPC|
|X1.3||17:37||12975||GOES16||halo CME, strong type II radio sweep|
March 30: A full halo CME was observed after
the X1 event in AR 12975. The CME could impact Earth on April 1 or early on
April 2 and cause active to major storm conditions. Another and more
impressive full halo CME was observed early in the day in LASCO imagery. The
source of this event was likely backsided, about 6 days behind the northeast
limb given the distribution of the ejecta.
March 29: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
March 28: A full halo CME was observed at noon after the M4 event in AR 12975. The CME could reach Earth on March 30 or early on March 31 and cause unsettled to major storm conditions. Another full halo CME was observed after a C8.6 flare in AR 12975 peaking at 20:04 UT. This CME could reach Earth early on March 31.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1071) will likely rotate across the central meridian on March 30-31.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Unsettled to major storm is likely on March 31 becoming quiet to active on April 1. Quiet to major storm conditions are possible from late on April 1 until April 3 due to the March 30 CME.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
|Active region||SWPC date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
|Total spot count:||33||186||87|
|Sunspot number:||73||346||197||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||63||232||133||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||80||190||158|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number (4)||Average ap
|166.3||146.1 (SC24 peak)||110.5||10.70|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||112.5||116.4 (solar max)||7.88|
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
|2021.09||87.0||88.2||51.3||(39.9 projected, +4.6)||6.33|
|2021.10||88.9||88.3||38.1||(43.6 projected, +3.7)||7.38|
|2021.11||86.2||84.4||35.0||(48.2 projected, +4.6)||9.83|
|2021.12||103.0||99.8||67.6||(54.0 projected, +5.8)||6.40|
|2022.01||103.8||100.5||54.0||(57.7 projected, +3.7)||8.92|
|2022.02||109.1||106.5||59.7||(62.4 projected, +4.7)||10.46|
|2022.03||116.0 (1)||66.4 (2A) / 68.6 (2B) / 91.4 (2C)||(67.9 projected, +5.5)||(9.6)|
|2022.04||(73.0 projected, +5.1)|
|2022.05||(79.4 projected, +6.4)|
|2022.06||(85.3 projected, +5.9)|
|2022.07||(92.6 projected, +7.3)|
|2022.08||(99.2 projected, +6.6)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.