Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on March 4, 2022 at 12:05 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (March 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (March 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (March 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (March 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (March 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on March 3. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. A high speed stream associated with CH1067 began to influence the field after 18h UT.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 110.9 - decreasing 18.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 86.93). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.8). Three hour interval K indices: 11001122 (planetary), 11112222 (Boulder), 10001143 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 178) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 106) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12954 [N17W72] was quiet and stable.
Region 12955 [N15W62] was quiet and stable.
Region 12956 [N28W32] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12957 [S13W01] decayed slowly in the trailing spot section and was quiet. This is the original NOAA AR number. On March 3 SWPC split what they had previously considered as one region and assigned 12961 to this region. To preserve data consistency and integrity the original numbering is kept.
Region 12958 [N16E11] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
New region 12959 [S19E28] emerged on March 2 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.
New region 12960 [S20E71] rotated partly into view on March 2 and was numbered the following day by SWPC. The region is developing and could produce C and M class flares.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7393 [S16E10] developed further producing a few flares. The region appears to be maturing.
S7398 [S25E12] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7402 [S25E29] emerged with a tiny spot.

An active region near the northeast limb produced a C1.2 fl°are at 20:48 UT.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C3.3 21:55   12958 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

March 1-3: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1067) was in an Earth facing position on March 1-4.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to occasionally fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on March 4-7 due to effects from CH1067.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12954 2022.02.20
2022.02.20
1 1 1 N17W73 0110 HSX HSX  
12955 2022.02.20
2022.02.21
1 1 1 N15W61 0100 HSX HAX  
12956 2022.02.25
2022.02.27
  4   N25W38 0005   BXO

location: N28W32

12957 2022.02.26
2022.02.27
7 18 6 S15E13 0140 DSO CRO location: S13W01

area: 0070

Originally AR 12957. SWPC has renumbered the region as AR 12961

12958 2022.02.27
2022.02.28
2 13 5 N17E11 0060 BXO BXO

area: 0025

S7392 2022.02.27       N19W36          
S7393 2022.02.27   24 14 S16E10 0300   DSO SWPC has this as AR 12957
12961 2022.03.03 6     S13E05 0040 CAO       this is originally AR 12957
S7395 2022.02.28       S12W10            
S7396 2022.03.01       S20W43            
S7397 2022.03.01       N05W18           likely SC24 group
S7398 2022.03.01   4   S25E12 0005   AXX  
12959 2022.03.02
2022.03.03
1 2 1 S19E23 0010 AXX HRX area: 0005

location: S19E28

12960 2022.03.02
2022.03.03
4 10 8 S21E67 0040 CAO EAI area: 0260

location: S20E71

S7401 2022.03.02       S31W37          
S7402 2022.03.03   1   S25E29 0001   AXX    
Total spot count: 22 78 36  
Sunspot number: 92 178 106  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 47 106 62  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 101 98 85  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.5 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.7 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+3.9) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 (39.9 projected, +4.6) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (43.6 projected, +3.7) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.0 (48.2 projected, +4.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (54.0 projected, +5.8) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (57.7 projected, +3.7) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (62.4 projected, +4.7) 10.5
2022.03 106.6 (1)   7.1 (2A) / 73.3 (2B) / 78.0 (2C) (67.9 projected, +5.5) (5.3)
2022.04       (73.0 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (79.4 projected, +6.4)  
2022.06       (85.3 projected, +5.9)  
2022.07       (92.6 projected, +7.3)  
2022.08       (99.2 projected, +6.6)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.