Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on March 16, 2022 at 07:15 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (March 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (March 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (March 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (March 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (March 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 15. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 110.4 - increasing 7.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 88.28). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.6). Three hour interval K indices: 11102213 (planetary), 12212213 (Boulder), 01112335 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 176) and in 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 97) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12960 [S19W89] was quiet and stable as it rotated partly out of view.
Region 12965 [N23W18] decayed further producing several C and M class flares. Further M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 11:34, C1.0 @ 15:32 UT
Region 12967 [N18E20] was quiet and stable.
Region 12968 [S21E19] was quiet and stable.
Region 12970 [S22E06] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S7427 [S14E19] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7428 [S10W43] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7429 [N12E07] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7430 [N18E70] rotated into view.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C3.7 06:04 N23W06 12965 GOES16  
C3.3 08:17 N24W09 12965 GOES16  
M1.4 12:39 N24W10 12965 GOES16  
M1.5 22:46 N24W19 12965 GOES16  
C6.6 23:25 N24W19 12965 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

March 13-15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing locations.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on March 16-18.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12960 2022.03.02
2022.03.03
1 1 1 S20W89 0150 HSX HHX

location: S19W89

area: 0280

12962 2022.03.05       N27W77           location: N25W58
12965 2022.03.08 25 58 27 N24W17 0310 FAI FAI beta-gamma

location: N23W18

12969 2022.03.10
2022.03.14
      S19W38          
S7418 2022.03.10       S16E28            
12968 2022.03.10
2022.03.13
  2   S22E04 0004   BXO location: S21E19

SWPC location is that of AR 12970

12967 2022.03.11
2022.03.12
1 5 1 N18E19 0020 HRX CAO

 

S7423 2022.03.11       S25W54            
S7424 2022.03.11       S33W52            
S7425 2022.03.12       S16W31            
12970 2022.03.12
2022.03.14
4 14 5 S23E04 0010 BXO CRO area: 0020

location: S22E06

S7427 2022.03.15   2 1 S14E19 0004   BXO    
S7428 2022.03.15   1   S10W43 0001   AXX    
S7429 2022.03.15   1   N12E07 0001   AXX    
S7430 2022.03.15   2 2 N18E70 0012   CRO    
Total spot count: 31 86 37  
Sunspot number: 71 176 97  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 44 112 63  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 78 97 78  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.5 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.7 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+3.9) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 (39.9 projected, +4.6) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (43.6 projected, +3.7) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.0 (48.2 projected, +4.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (54.0 projected, +5.8) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (57.7 projected, +3.7) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (62.4 projected, +4.7) 10.46
2022.03 116.2 (1)   39.4 (2A) / 81.4 (2B) / 81.3 (2C) (67.9 projected, +5.5) (12.6)
2022.04       (73.0 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (79.4 projected, +6.4)  
2022.06       (85.3 projected, +5.9)  
2022.07       (92.6 projected, +7.3)  
2022.08       (99.2 projected, +6.6)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.