Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on February 15, 2022 at 11:10 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (February 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (February 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (February 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (February 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (February 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 14 under the weakening influence of a high speed coronal hole stream associated with CH1060. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 106.5 - decreasing 8.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 85.85). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices:6.4). Three hour interval K indices: 32221211 (planetary), 22332221 (Boulder), 43222343 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 218) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 116) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12941 [N24W63] developed slowly could produce further minor M class flares before rotating over the northwest limb.
Region 12945 [S19W75] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12946 [S08E25] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 12947 [N15W55] emerged  on February 13 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.
New region 12948 [S27E54] began to emerge late on February 13 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7345 [S22W08] was quiet and stable.
S7351 [N21E24] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7353 [S23E20] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7358 [N17W68] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7359 [S20W22] emerged with several spots. Note that SWPC has incorrectly placed these spots in AR 12943, they did this by moving AR 12943 11 degrees eastwards.
New region S7360 [N25E08] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7361 [N46W01] emerged with a tiny spot at a high latitude.
New region S7362 [N22E74] rotated into view with tiny spots.
New region S7363 [S18E07] emerged with tiny spots.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C5.0 14:06 N25W60 12941 GOES16  
M1.0 17:32 N26W62 12941 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

February 12-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1062) will likely rotate across the central meridian on February 16 (CH1062 appeared to have closed on February 14). A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1064) could become Earth facing on February 17-18.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on February 15-18.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12941 2022.02.02
2022.02.03
10 24 14 N23W68 0320 EKI FAI

beta-gamma

location: N24W63

12943 2022.02.06
2022.02.08
4     S23W23
real location: S18W34
0030 CRO       the region is spotless
SWPC has "moved" the region to the spots observed in AR S7359, 11 degrees further east
S7345 2022.02.08   3 1 S22W08 0007   BXO  
12945 2022.02.10
2022.02.11
  1   S21W76 0001   AXX location: S19W75
12946 2022.02.10
2022.02.11
2 5 3 S07E24 0080 DSO CAO location: S08E25
S7351 2022.02.10   2 1 N21E24 0004   BXO    
S7352 2022.02.11       N20W31            
S7353 2022.02.11   2   S23E20 0003   AXX  
S7355 2022.02.12       S38W08            
12947 2022.02.13
2022.02.14
3 12 6 N12W57 0040 BXO CRO location: N15W55

area: 0025

12948 2022.02.13
2022.02.14
3 10 5 S27E56 0080 DSO DAO location: S27E54
S7358 2022.02.14   1 1 N17W68 0007   HRX    
S7359 2022.02.14   10 5 S20W22 0050   DRO    
S7360 2022.02.14   3   N25E08 0007   AXX    
S7361 2022.02.14   1   N46W01 0001   AXX    
S7362 2022.02.14   2   N22E74 0005   AXX    
S7363 2022.02.14   2   S18E07 0003   BXO    
Total spot count: 22 78 36  
Sunspot number: 72 218 116  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 55 102 60  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 79 120 93  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.07 69.5 71.8 6.1 9.0 (+1.1) 4.28
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.5 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.7 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 (36.2 projected, +4.8) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 (42.3 projected, +6.1) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (46.7 projected, +4.4) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.0 (51.3 projected, +4.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (57.2 projected, +5.9) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (60.8 projected, +3.6) 8.92
2022.02 120.7 (1)   38.9 (2A) / 77.9 (2B) / 82.2 (2C) (65.5 projected, +4.7) (13.8)
2022.03       (71.0 projected, +5.5)  
2022.04       (76.1 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (82.6 projected, +6.5)  
2022.06       (88.4 projected, +5.9)  
2022.07       (95.7 projected, +7.3)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.