The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on June 15. What was likely the arrival of the June 13 CME was observed at DSCOVR at 04:00 UT. Solar wind density had been on the increase for some hours in anticipation of the arrival of the high speed stream from CH1081. The combined disturbance from the two sources were unimpressive and the effects of the CME were mostly replaced by the high speed stream within a few hours of the start of the disturbance.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 140.0 - decreasing 33.2 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 101.21). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 17 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 16.9). Three hour interval K indices: 23434422 (planetary), 44435433 (Boulder), 34345532 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 342) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 234) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13030 [N18W05] developed slowly and was
mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 01:22, C1.1 @ 11:18 UT.
Region 13031 [S27W17] decayed slowly retaining only one weak magnetic
delta structure. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 01:49, C1.2 @ 06:09 UT.
Region 13032 [N20E07] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13033 [N17E28] lost mature penumbra and was otherwise quiet
and stable.
Region 13034 [N01E40] was quiet and stable. This is likely an SC24 group.
Region 13035 [S18E39] was quiet and stable.
Region 13036 [S12W68] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.3 @
03:40 UT
New region 13037 [S20W27] emerged on June 8 with SWPC numbering the
region 7 days later as it had been gaining spots and area for a couple of
days.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7628 [S18W12] was quiet and stable.
S7629 [N17W19] was quiet and stable.
S7642 [N13E70] was quiet and stable.
New region S7645 [N16E62] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7646 [N28E83] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.3 | 04:28 | S14W57 | 13036 | GOES16 | |
| C2.3 | 04:55 | 13033 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13031 | |
| C3.2 | 07:25 | N21E06 | 13030 | GOES16 |
June 14-15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
June 13: The M3.4 LDE in
AR 13032 peaking at 04:07 UT was associated with a very dense CME core off
the east limbs.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1081) was Earth facing position on June 11-13. A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1082) rotated across the central meridian on June 15.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
Quiet to active conditions are likely on June 16 due to effects from CH1081 becoming quiet to unsettled on June 17-18, the last day under the influence of effects from CH1082.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13037 | 2022.06.08 2022.06.15 |
2 | 11 | 7 | S20W28 | 0020 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0040 |
| 13030 | 2022.06.09 2022.06.10 |
13 | 51 | 26 | N19W03 | 0060 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0160 location: N18W05 |
| 13032 | 2022.06.09 2022.06.12 |
4 | 31 | 8 | N20E08 | 0100 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0130 location: N20E07 |
| S7628 | 2022.06.10 | 8 | 4 | S18W12 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S7629 | 2022.06.10 | 3 | 2 | N17W19 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 13031 | 2022.06.10 2022.06.11 |
26 | 46 | 30 | S26W18 | 0240 | EAI | EAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S27W17 area: 0330 |
| 13033 | 2022.06.11 2022.06.12 |
13 | 33 | 19 | N17E28 | 0120 | DAI | DRI |
 |
 |
|
| S7632 | 2022.06.11 | N17W55 | |||||||||
| 13034 | 2022.06.12 2022.06.13 |
1 | 3 | 1 | N01E41 | 0100 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0160 likely SC24 group |
| 13035 | 2022.06.12 2022.06.13 |
5 | 15 | 9 | S18E42 | 0070 | CSO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0100 location: S18E39 |
| 13036 | 2022.06.12 2022.06.14 |
5 | 8 | 6 | S12W69 | 0100 | DSO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0120 |
| S7637 | 2022.06.12 | N17W38 | |||||||||
| S7638 | 2022.06.12 | S13W50 | |||||||||
| S7639 | 2022.06.12 | N11W48 | |||||||||
| S7640 | 2022.06.13 | N22E17 | |||||||||
| S7641 | 2022.06.13 | S19E06 | |||||||||
| S7642 | 2022.06.14 | 1 | 1 | N13E70 | 0015 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| S7643 | 2022.06.14 | N12W11 |
 |
||||||||
| S7644 | 2022.06.14 | N07W20 |
 |
||||||||
| S7645 | 2022.06.15 | 1 | 1 | N16E62 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S7646 | 2022.06.15 | 1 | N28E83 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 69 | 212 | 114 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 149 | 342 | 234 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 107 | 241 | 153 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 164 | 188 | 187 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.3 (+3.7) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.3 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.0 (+4.7) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.0 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.6 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | (55.7 projected, +5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 54.0 | (60.4 projected, +4.7) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 59.7 | (66.9 projected, +6.5) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.5 | (72.4 projected, +5.5) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (77.6 projected, +5.2) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (84.1 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 111.2 (1) | 29.7 (2A) / 59.3 (2B) / 99.2 (2C) | (89.9 projected, +5.8) | (6.7) | |
| 2022.07 | (97.2 projected, +7.3) | ||||
| 2022.08 | (103.8 projected, +6.6) | ||||
| 2022.09 | (108.8 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (112.0 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2022.11 | (114.8 projected, +2.8) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
