The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm on January 14. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. A magnetic cloud began to influence the field after 13h UT with the total field of the interplanetary magnetic field strengthening until after 21h UT. During that time there was little change in solar wind density and speed. At SOHO solar wind speed increased rapidly after 21:47 UT from 356 to 473 km/sec in 12 minutes. Following this transition the IMF total field weakened rapidly.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 110.2 - decreasing 11.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 82.57). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 14.3). Three hour interval K indices: 00112246 (planetary), 00111325 (Boulder), 00000454 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 235) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 126) SDO/HMI images.
Region 12924 [S31W75] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12925 [S34W43] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 12926 [N18W80] decayed slowly losing all trailing spots.
Region 12927 [S20E01] was quiet and stable.
Region 12928 [S20W29] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12929 [N07W04] developed further and could produce C flares.
Region 12930 [N21W07] gained spots and was quiet.
Region 12931 [N12W41] developed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7292 [S20E31] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7293 [N31E76] was numbered early in
the day as small spots began to rotate into view at the northeast limb. The
region is unstable and could produce further M class flares. C1 flares: C1.0
@ 12:44, C1.4 @ 19:54 UT. (SWPC has numbered this region 12932 on January
15)
New region S7294 [S28E54] emerged early in the day and was
visible at 1K resolution, the region decayed after noon.
New region S7295 [S26E78] rotated into view with a small spot.
New region S7296 [N26W32] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7297 [N31E27] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7298 [S18E17] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| M1.8 | 02:03 | N32E88 | S7293 | GOES16 | |
| C2.1 | 11:54 | N30E85 | S7293 | GOES16 | |
| C4.3/1F | 13:34 | S37W35 | filament eruption near AR 12925 | GOES16 | LDE, halo CME |
| C3.5 | 14:23 | 12924 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 19:39 | N31E83 | S7293 | GOES16 |
January 12-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
January 14: A filament eruption centered to the south of AR 12935
began at approximately 12:57 UT and was recorded as a C4 event. A CME was
observed mainly off the southwest limb, however there were faint extensions
all around the visible disk. While the main ejecta is not headed towards
Earth, there is a chance of a weak impact on January 17.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1054) was in an Earth facing position on January 12-14.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm January 15-17 and quiet to unsettled on January 18 due to effects from CH1054.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12924 | 2022.01.03 2022.01.04 |
4 | 4 | 2 | S29W79 | 0220 | ESO | FSO |
 |
 |
area: 0280 location: S31W75 |
| 12925 | 2022.01.04 2022.01.05 |
1 | 4 | 2 | S33W45 | 0050 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: S34W43 |
| S7283 | 2022.01.07 | S18W45 | |||||||||
| 12926 | 2022.01.07 2022.01.09 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N19W79 | 0020 | HSX | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N18W80 area: 0005 |
| S7285 | 2022.01.07 | S03W52 | likely SC24 | ||||||||
| 12927 | 2022.01.08 2022.01.09 |
1 | 10 | 1 | S20E01 | 0050 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
|
| 12931 | 2022.01.09 2022.01.13 |
9 | 15 | 7 | N13W43 | 0100 | DSO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N12W41 |
| 12928 | 2022.01.11 2022.01.12 |
4 | 4 | 2 | S21W28 | 0020 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S20W29 |
| 12930 | 2022.01.11 2022.01.13 |
5 | 18 | 11 | N21W07 | 0020 | BXO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0050 |
| 12929 | 2022.01.11 2022.01.13 |
7 | 15 | 9 | N08W05 | 0100 | DSO | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0200 location: N07W04 reversed polarities |
| S7292 | 2022.01.13 | 2 | S20E31 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S7293 | 2022.01.14 | 6 | 1 | N31E76 | 0030 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S7294 | 2022.01.14 | 1 | S28E54 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S7295 | 2022.01.14 | 1 | S26E78 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7296 | 2022.01.14 | 1 | N26W32 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7297 | 2022.01.14 | 1 | N31E27 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7298 | 2022.01.14 | 2 | S18E17 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 32 | 85 | 36 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 112 | 235 | 126 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 62 | 116 | 67 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 123 | 129 | 101 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.06 | 69.5 | 71.7 | 5.8 | 7.9 (+2.3) | 3.75 |
| 2020.07 | 69.5 | 71.8 | 6.3 | 9.0 (+1.1) | 4.28 |
| 2020.08 | 71.6 | 73.4 | 7.6 | 9.5 (+0.5) | 5.68 |
| 2020.09 | 70.7 | 71.4 | 0.7 | 10.5 (+1.0) | 8.59 |
| 2020.10 | 74.6 | 74.2 | 14.6 | 11.9 (+1.4) | 6.13 |
| 2020.11 | 89.9 | 88.0 | 34.5 | 13.6 (+1.7) | 4.77 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.3 | 19.1 (+1.8) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.3 | 21.8 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.9 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.9 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.3 | 27.8 (+1.9) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.4 | (31.8 projected, +4.0) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.4 | (36.5 projected, +4.7) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.5 | (42.2 projected, +5.7) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 38.1 | (46.6 projected, +4.4) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 35.1 | (51.2 projected, +4.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.6 | (57.0 projected, +5.8) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 97.3 (1) | 20.8 (2A) / 46.1 (2B) / 88.2 (2C) | (60.6 projected, +3.6) | (6.4) | |
| 2022.02 | (65.4 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2022.03 | (70.8 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2022.04 | (75.9 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2022.05 | (82.3 projected, +6.4) | ||||
| 2022.06 | (88.2 projected, +5.9) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
