The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on February 10 under the influence of a relatively low speed CME. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 118.0 - increasing 7.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 85.45). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 22 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 22.1). Three hour interval K indices: 33223554 (planetary), 23223543 (Boulder), 42222566 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 204) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 129) SDO/HMI images.
Region 12939 [S16W71] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 12940 [N17W69] decayed fairly quickly. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 06:30
UT
Region 12941 [N24W11] decayed slowly losing many small spots. C1 flares:
C1.0 @ 09:22, C1.0 at 09:52 UT.
Region 12943 [S18E14] reemerged with tiny spots.
New region 12944 [S25W70] was first observed with spots on January 30
and was numbered by SWPC 11 days later as new flux emerged.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7338 [S23W48] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7344 [S20W15] was quiet and stable.
S7345 [S22E43] reemerged with tiny spots.
New region S7346 [S20W21] emerged with several
spots.
New region S7347 [S16W59] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7348 [S04E08] emerged with a tiny
spot. This is probably an SC24 spot.
New region S7349 [S09E79] rotated into view with a few spots.
New region S7350 [N20E46] was observed with a tiny spots in an
old plage area.
New region S7351 [N20E77] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.0 | 02:08 | N18W56 | 12940 | GOES16 | |
| C4.0 | 04:38 | N21W05 | 12941 | GOES16 |
February 8-10: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A very well defined recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1060) rotated across the central meridian on February 10. A small northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1061) will become Earth facing on February 11.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on February 11 due to CME effects, quiet to unsettled on February 12 and quiet to minor storm on February 13-14 due to effects from CH1060 and CH1061.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12939 | 2022.01.29 2022.01.30 |
3 | 3 | 2 | S17W70 | 0160 | CSO | HSX |
 |
 |
location: S16W71 |
| 12940 | 2022.01.30 2022.01.30 |
6 | 4 | 3 | N16W71 | 0130 | DAO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N17W69 area: 0040 |
| 12944 | 2022.01.30 2022.02.10 |
1 | 7 | 4 | S26W70 | 0020 | HRX | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0040 |
| 12941 | 2022.02.02 2022.02.03 |
28 | 34 | 17 | N24W15 | 0370 | EKI | FAO |
 |
 |
location: N24W11 area: 0270 |
| S7338 | 2022.02.04 | 3 | 2 | S23W48 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S7339 | 2022.02.04 | N11W47 | |||||||||
| S7342 | 2022.02.05 | N00W58 | probably SC24 | ||||||||
| 12943 | 2022.02.06 2022.02.08 |
2 | 1 | S18E21 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S18E14 | ||
| S7344 | 2022.02.08 | S20W28 |
 |
||||||||
| S7345 | 2022.02.08 | 2 | S22E43 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S7346 | 2022.02.10 | 11 | 7 | S20W21 | 0050 | DRI |
 |
||||
| S7347 | 2022.02.10 | 3 | S16W59 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S7348 | 2022.02.10 | 1 | 1 | S04E08 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
maybe SC24 group | |||
| S7349 | 2022.02.10 | 2 | 2 | S09E79 | 0030 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S7351 | 2022.02.10 | 1 | N20E77 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 38 | 73 | 39 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 78 | 203 | 129 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 61 | 95 | 61 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 86 | 112 | 103 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.07 | 69.5 | 71.8 | 6.1 | 9.0 (+1.1) | 4.28 |
| 2020.08 | 71.6 | 73.4 | 7.5 | 9.5 (+0.5) | 5.68 |
| 2020.09 | 70.7 | 71.4 | 0.7 | 10.5 (+1.0) | 8.59 |
| 2020.10 | 74.6 | 74.2 | 14.6 | 11.9 (+1.4) | 6.13 |
| 2020.11 | 89.9 | 88.0 | 34.5 | 13.6 (+1.7) | 4.77 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.7 (+1.9) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.7) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | (36.2 projected, +4.8) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | (42.3 projected, +6.1) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 38.1 | (46.7 projected, +4.4) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 35.0 | (51.3 projected, +4.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.6 | (57.2 projected, +5.9) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 54.0 | (60.8 projected, +3.6) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 125.5 (1) | 29.5 (2A) / 82.5 (2B) / 85.0 (2C) | (65.5 projected, +4.7) | (13.6) | |
| 2022.03 | (71.0 projected, +5.5) | ||||
| 2022.04 | (76.1 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2022.05 | (82.6 projected, +6.5) | ||||
| 2022.06 | (88.4 projected, +5.9) | ||||
| 2022.07 | (95.7 projected, +7.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
