The geomagnetic field was quiet on December 28. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 443 and 603 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was not provided by DRAO/Penticton. Instead 140.6 (estimated from Almaty data) is a replacement value - increasing 21.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 123.78). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.4). Three hour interval K indices: 22111101 (planetary), 22202211 (Boulder), 52100002 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 231) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 139) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13169 [N21W72] decayed slowly producing
a few C flares. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 07:33, C1.7 @ 08:55, C1.8 @ 14:16, C1.6 @ 14:43,
C1.4 @ 15:16 UT
Region 13171 [N23W50] was quiet and stable.
Region 13172 [S37W20] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13173 [N23W02] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13175 [S21E17] was quiet and stable.
Region 13176 [N18E37] matured quietly and gained area. C1 flares:
C1.5 @ 13:43 UT
New region 13177 [S18E70] rotated into view on December 27 and was
numbered by SWPC the following day. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 10:36 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8122 [N19W51] was quiet and stable.
S8126 [S04W55] was first observed at noon on
December 27 with a tiny spot, became spotless later the same day, and then
reemerged with new flux and several spots on December 28.
New region S8130 [N30W49] emerged with tiny
spots.
New region S8131 [N12E03] emerged with tiny spots.
An active region behind the northeast limb was the source of a long duration M1.2 flare peaking at 07:27 UT on December 29. C1 flare: C1.6 @ 21:57 UT
Minor update added at 19:15 UT:
AR S8133 is rotating into view at the northeast limb. So far 2 moderately
large spots are visible, although at some distance from each other, maybe
two separate groups. The region has produced 2 M class flares today.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 00:17 | 13176 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 02:37 | behind NE limb | GOES16 | ||
| C6.0 | 02:56 | behind NE limb | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 05:00 | 13177 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 16:57 | 13169 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 17:25 | 13169 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 17:36 | behind NE limb | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 20:11 | 13177 | GOES16 |
December 26-28: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1122) rotated across the central meridian on December 25-27. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1123) will likely become Earth facing on January 1-2.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to minor storm conditions are expected for December 29-31 due to effects from CH1122.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13169 | 2022.12.16 2022.12.17 |
8 | 13 | 8 | N22W69 | 0230 | FAC | FSO |
 |
 |
area: 0340 location: N21W72 |
| 13170 | 2022.12.17 2022.12.17 |
S19W72 |
 |
location: S14W66 |
|||||||
| 13171 | 2022.12.18 2022.12.19 |
3 | 9 | 3 | N24W51 | 0080 | HAX | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N23W50 |
| 13172 | 2022.12.20 2022.12.21 |
20 | 5 | S36W18 | 0030 | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S37W20 | ||
| 13173 | 2022.12.22 2022.12.22 |
2 | 11 | 5 | N24W03 | 0040 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0060 location: N23W02 |
| S8115 | 2022.12.22 | S03W48 | |||||||||
| S8117 | 2022.12.23 | S22W47 | |||||||||
| 13175 | 2022.12.24 2022.12.25 |
2 | 13 | 2 | S22E17 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S21E17 area: 0030 |
| S8120 | 2022.12.24 | N20W22 | |||||||||
| S8121 | 2022.12.24 | S07W21 | |||||||||
| S8122 | 2022.12.25 | 2 | N19W51 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S8123 | 2022.12.25 | S17W21 | |||||||||
| 13176 | 2022.12.25 2022.12.26 |
10 | 29 | 14 | N19E38 | 0300 | EKI | EKO |
 |
 |
location: N18E37 area: 0580 |
| S8126 | 2022.12.27 | 12 | 6 | S04W55 | 0080 | DAO |
 |
||||
| 13177 | 2022.12.27 2022.12.28 |
3 | 5 | 4 | S18E71 | 0090 | HAX | HKX |
 |
 |
area: 0320 |
| S8128 | 2022.12.27 | N05E18 |
 |
||||||||
| S8129 | 2022.12.27 | N18W31 |
 |
||||||||
| S8130 | 2022.12.28 | 3 | 2 | N30W49 | 0009 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S8131 | 2022.12.28 | 4 | N12E03 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
|
||||
| Total spot count: | 28 | 121 | 49 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 88 | 231 | 139 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 58 | 167 | 95 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 97 | 127 | 111 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.8 (+4.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.9 (+4.1) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.1 (+4.2) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.3 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | (80.7 projected, +3.6) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (85.7 projected, +5.0) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 75.4 | (91.4 projected, +5.7) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.3 | (96.3 projected, +4.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (99.5 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (102.3 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 144.5 (1) | 99.6 (2A) / 110.6 (2B) / 128.6 (2C) | (107.1 projected, +4.8) | (10.4) | |
| 2023.01 | (113.1 projected, +6.0) | ||||
| 2023.02 | (118.1 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (121.2 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (126.6 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (132.4 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
