Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on December 3, 2022 at 11:15 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (November 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (December 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (December 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (December 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (December 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on December 2 due to high speed stream from CH1117. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 621 and 788 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to major storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 124.0 - decreasing 7.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 120.86). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.9). Three hour interval K indices: 33332332 (planetary), 34332332 (Boulder), 45433564 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 165) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 128) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13152 [N28W55] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13153 [S16E59] produced a few C flares. A major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 03:35 UT
Region 13154 [S38W18] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13155 [N21E04] was quiet and stable.
New region 13156 [N25E65] rotated into view on December 1 with a single mature spot and was numbered by SWPC the following day. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 18:21 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S8049 [N24E34] reemerged with a few spots.
New region S8055 [S13W83] emerged with tiny spots near the southwest limb and rotated partly out of view. C1 flare: C1.5 @ 18:21 (incorrectly attributed to AR 13156 by SWPC) UT.
New region S8056 [N28E60] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8057 [N22E73] rotated into view with a small spot.
New region S8058 [S13W12] emerged with a tiny spot.

The same active region behind the northeast limb that produced the C8 flare earlier in the day was likely the source of a C1.4 flare at 23:21 and a C1.8 flare at 23:56 UT.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C3.7 02:07   13153 GOES16  
C8.1 09:20 northeast limb N15   GOES16 incorrectly attributed to AR 13156 by SWPC
simultaneous flare in AR 13153

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 30 - December 2: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1117) was Earth facing on November 28-29. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1118) will likely rotate across the central meridian on December 4-5.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on December 3 becoming quiet on December 4-5. On December 6-7 quiet to minor storm is expected due to effects from CH1118.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13152 2022.11.22
2022.11.23
1 3 2 N28W51 0010 AXX BXO location: N28W55

area: 0020

S8033 2022.11.24       S08W40            
S8042 2022.11.27       S19W47            
S8043 2022.11.27       N25W19            
S8044 2022.11.27       N18W00            
S8045 2022.11.28       S20W35            
13154 2022.11.29
2022.12.01
3 12 6 S38W19 0030 CRO DRO

location: S38W18

S8048 2022.11.30       N26W43            
S8049 2022.11.30   7 4 N24E34 0020   DRO    
13153 2022.11.30
2022.12.01
6 19 10 S17E59 0750 EKO FKO area: 0970

location: S16E59

S8051 2022.11.30       N13W12            
13155 2022.12.01
2022.12.01
5 14 10 N21E02 0040 DRO DRI

area: 0070

13156 2022.12.01
2022.12.02
1 4 2 N25E65 0180 HAX HKX area: 0270
S8054 2022.12.01       N28E43          
S8055 2022.12.02   1   S13W83 0002   AXX    
S8056 2022.12.02   3 2 N28E60 0008   BXO    
S8057 2022.12.02   1 1 N22E73 0010   HRX    
S8058 2022.12.02   1 1 S13W12 0003   AXX    
Total spot count: 16 65 38  
Sunspot number: 66 165 128  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 37 97 70  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 73 91 102  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.1 (+4.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 77.3 (+4.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (80.7 projected, +3.6) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (85.7 projected, +5.0) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (91.4 projected, +5.7) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (96.3 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (99.5 projected, +3.2) 11.16
2022.11 123.4 120.7 77.6 (102.3 projected, +2.8) 9.6
2022.12 121.4 (1)   3.7 (2A) / 57.5 (2B) / 86.7 (2C) (107.1 projected, +4.8) (19.0)
2023.01       (113.1 projected, +6.0)  
2023.02       (118.1 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (121.2 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (126.6 projected, +5.4)  
2023.05       (132.4 projected, +5.8)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.