The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on August 19 under the influence of a high speed stream from CH1094. A solar wind shock was observed at 17:10 UT at SOHO, likely the arrival of the August 16 CME. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 513 and 706 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 105.4 - decreasing 5.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 108.91). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 20 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 20.1). Three hour interval K indices: 33222454 (planetary), 44222344 (Boulder), 45233365 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 178) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 108) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13078 [S23W59] decayed quickly leaving
no penumbra on negative polarity spots and only rudimentary penumbra on
positive polarity spots. The region has been mostly quiet since late on
August 19. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 03:22, C1.8 @ 11:49, C1.2 @ 15:22, C1.6/1N @
20:16 UT
Region 13081 [N10W39] decayed slowly with the main umbra fragmenting
into smaller umbrae. C1 flare: C1.9 @ 09:01, C1.4 @ 22:40 UT
Region 13082 [N27E10] was quiet and stable.
Region 13083 [S25W67] decayed slowly with only tiny spots
remaining late in the day.
Region 13084 [S09E06] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7786 [S19E33] was quiet and stable.
S7790 [N12E05] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S7794 [S19E06] emerged with many tiny spots.
New region S7795 [N18W09] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7796 [N14E16] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.3/1F | 02:09 | S24W44 | 13078 | GOES16 | |
| M1.6 | 04:44 | S28W49 | 13078 | GOES16 | LDE, CME, moderate type II and weak type IV radio sweeps |
| M1.1 | 05:11 | S24W52 | 13078 | GOES16 | |
| C3.2 | 06:10 | S26W48 | 13078 | GOES16 | |
| C4.5/1N | 08:10 | S24W48 | 13078 | GOES16 | |
| C3.0/1F | 10:27 | S25W49 | 13078 | GOES16 | |
| C4.0 | 11:17 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.7/1N | 20:31 | S26W55 | 13078 | GOES16 | weak type II radio sweep |
August 16: No well defined CME was observed after the M5 major flare
in AR 13078, however, there is chance CME effects will reach Earth on August
18 or 19.
August 17: A faint full halo CME was observed after the M1.0 long
duration event in AR 13078 peaking at 14:52 UT. The CME could reach Earth on
August 20.
August 18: A faint full halo CME was observed after an M1.5 flare in
AR 13078 peaking at 10:55 UT. The CME could reach Earth on
August 21.
August 19: A partial halo CME was observed after the M1.6 flare in AR
13078 at 04:44 UT. There is a chance effects from this CME could reach Earth
on August 22.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1094) rotated across the central meridian on August 14-17. A small southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1095) was Earth facing on August 19.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
Quiet to active conditions are expected for August 20-22 due to effects from CH1094 and the August 17-19 CMEs. Minor and major storm intervals are possible. Quiet to unsettled conditions are possible on August 22-23 due to effects from CH1095.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13078 | 2022.08.09 2022.08.10 |
14 | 17 | 11 | S24W62 | 0210 | DAC | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S23W59 area: 0070 |
| S7766 | 2022.08.10 | S11W42 |
 |
||||||||
| 13081 | 2022.08.11 2022.08.13 |
4 | 14 | 8 | N16W38 | 0110 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N10W39 |
| 13084 | 2022.08.14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | S11E01 | 0020 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: S09E06 |
| S7779 | 2022.08.14 | N11W52 | |||||||||
| 13083 | 2022.08.15 2022.08.16 |
2 | 2 | S24W70 | 0010 | BXO | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S25W67 area: 0003 |
|
| 13082 | 2022.08.15 2022.08.16 |
2 | 14 | 6 | N23E15 | 0040 | CAO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: N27E10 |
| S7785 | 2022.08.15 | N16W14 | |||||||||
| S7786 | 2022.08.16 | 3 | 2 | S19E33 | 0010 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| S7787 | 2022.08.16 | N36W26 |
 |
||||||||
| S7788 | 2022.08.16 | S16E34 | |||||||||
| S7789 | 2022.08.16 | N13W51 | |||||||||
| S7790 | 2022.08.17 | 3 | 3 | N12E05 | 0015 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| S7791 | 2022.08.18 | N22W32 | |||||||||
| S7792 | 2022.08.18 | N30E40 |
 |
||||||||
| S7793 | 2022.08.19 | S20W44 |
 |
||||||||
| S7794 | 2022.08.19 | 14 | 4 | S19E06 | 0020 | BXI |
 |
||||
| S7795 | 2022.08.19 | 2 | N18W09 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7796 | 2022.08.19 | 1 | N14E16 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 24 | 78 | 38 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 74 | 178 | 108 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 39 | 98 | 58 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 81 | 98 | 86 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | (65.8 projected, +5.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | (70.8 projected, +5.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (75.9 projected, +5.1) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (82.4 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.5 | (88.3 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (95.5 projected, +7.2) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 113.9 (1) | 44.4 (2A) / 72.4 (2B) / 91.8 (2C) | (102.0 projected, +6.5) | (12.6) | |
| 2022.09 | (106.9 projected, +4.9) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (110.1 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2022.11 | (112.9 projected, +2.8) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (117.7 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2023.01 | (123.7 projected, +6.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
