Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on July 23, 2022 at 04:40 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (July 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (July 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (July 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (July 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (July 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on July 22 under the influence of effects from CH1089. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 408 and 604 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. A solar wind shock was observed at 02:29 UT on July 23 at DSCOVR, the arrival of the July 21 CME.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 114.7 - increasing 6.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 106.29). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.5). Three hour interval K indices: 42321223 (planetary), 43332323 (Boulder), 53322223 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 217) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 162) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13057 [N17W78] decayed slowly producing a few B flares.
Region 13058 [N14W38] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13059 [S08W28] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13060 [N11W32] developed slowly gaining several spots.
Region 13062 [S25E37] was quiet and stable.
Region 13063 [N10W17] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13064 [N09E01] produced a few flares and has many small spots spread out over a large area. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 03:16, C1.0 @ 11:51 UT
Region 13065 [S19E02] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7712 [N30E02] was quiet and stable.
S7718 [S16E17] was quiet and stable.
New region S7722 [S23E20] emerged with tiny spots.

AR 13056 was the source a C1.1 flare at 08:01 UT and a C1.5 flare at 16:14 UT.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

July 21: A faint halo CME was observed after a C5.6 flare near center disk in AR 13060. The CME reached Earth early on July 23.
July 20,22
: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A large trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1089) was Earth facing on July 18-20.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

Quiet to major storm conditions are possible on July 23 due to CME effects becoming quiet to active on July 24 and quiet on July 25-26.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnigh4t Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13057 2022.07.10
2022.07.11
1 1 1 N17W79 0120 HSX HAX

area: 0230

13058 2022.07.13
2022.07.14
3 3 1 N14W42 0010 AXX BXO

location: N14W38

area: 0004

13059 2022.07.14
2022.07.15
1 11 3 S08W28 0100 HSX CSO

area: 0140

13060 2022.07.14
2022.07.16
5 29 15 N12W34 0030 BXO DRI location: N11W32

area: 0050

S7705 2022.07.15       N18W31            
S7707 2022.07.16       S15W51            
13063 2022.07.18
2022.07.20
2 10 3 N10W17 0010 AXX BXO

 

S7710 2022.07.18       S15E17            
S7711 2022.07.18       N25W36            
S7712 2022.07.18   1 1 N30E02 0002   AXX  
S7713 2022.07.19       N17W32          
13062 2022.07.19
2022.07.19
1 2 1 S26E36 0100 HSX HSX

location: S25E37

area: 0140

13064 2022.07.19
2022.07.20
8 27 13 N09E03 0040 CAO EAI beta-gamma

area: 0120

location: N09E01

S7718 2022.07.20   4 2 S16E17 0008   BXO  
S7720 2022.07.20       N25W29            
13065 2022.07.21
2022.07.21
6 17 10 S19E01 0020 BXO DRI area:0070
S7722 2022.07.22   2 2 S23E20 0010   BXO    
Total spot count: 27 107 52  
Sunspot number: 107 217 162  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 47 133 78  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 118 119 130  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.3 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.0 (+4.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.0 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.6 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.7 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (59.5 projected, +3.8) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (65.1 projected, +5.6) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.5 (70.5 projected, +5.4) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (75.7 projected, +5.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (82.2 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.6 (88.1 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 136.4 (1)   74.9 (2A) / 105.5 (2B) / 107.6 (2C) (95.3 projected, +7.2) (10.1)
2022.08       (101.9 projected, +6.6)  
2022.09       (106.9 projected, +5.0)  
2022.10       (110.1 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (112.9 projected, +2.8)  
2022.12       (117.7 projected, +4.8)  
2023.11       (141.4 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.