The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels on March 29. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 378 and 440 km/sec, averaging 402 km/sec (-3 km/sec compared to the previous day). CIR effects associated with CH1352 were observed during the first half of the day. The phi angle moved into a positive sector after 14h UT as a high speed stream from CH1352 became the dominant solar wind source. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 157.9 - increasing 10.3 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 144.60 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 134.1 (41 days ago, this is 41.1% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 13.5). Three hour interval K indices: 34323312 (planetary), 34334412 (Boulder), 44323521 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 263) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 178) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14399 [S16W24] was quiet and stable.
AR 14401 [N25W29] decayed losing area and spots. C1 flares: C1.6 @
05:47, C1.1 @ 06:51, C1.6 @ 11:56, C1.6 @ 22:02 UT
AR 14402 [N18W16] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1.7 @ 05:05,
C1.1 @ 10:13 UT
AR 14403 [N15E14] was quiet and stable.
AR 14404 [N14E34] was quiet and stable.
AR 14405 [S26E44] decayed significantly losing area and spots. The
region was the source of an X1.5 flare peaking at 03:19 UT on March 30. C1
flares: C1.0 @ 06:32, C1.3 @ 08:17, C1.3 @ 08:41, C1.2 @ 09:58, C1.4 @ 19:23
UT
AR 14406 [N08E39] was quiet and stable.
AR 14407 [N17E44] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.4 @
05:26, C1.4 @ 21:13, C1.6 @ 21:33 UT
New AR 14408 [N09E65] rotated into view on March 28 and was numbered
the next day by SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S11964 [S15E32] decayed slowly and quietly.
New AR S11965 [N02E68] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S11966 [S05W05] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S11967 [S12E01] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 05:11 | 14407 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 16:55 | 14401 | GOES18 | LDE | |
| C2.0 | 19:47 | S11965 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 19:59 | 14405 | GOES18 |
March 27, 29: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
March 28: A partial halo CME was observed after a long duration M1.3
event peaking at 04:15 UT with AR 14405 as the origin. There's a slight
chance that components of this CME could reach Earth on March 31.
March 30: A full halo CME was observed after the X1.5 flare in AR
14405. Unsettled to severe
storm conditions are likely on April 1-2, maybe even late on March 31.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole (CH1352) rotated across the central meridian on March 25-26. A recurrent southern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1353) will be in an Earth facing position on March 30-31.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on March 30-31 due to effects associated with CH1352. Unsettled to severe storm levels are likely on April 1-2 due to the March 30 CME. Effects from CH1353 are likely on April 2-4 causing quiet to minor storm conditions.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14397 | 2026.03.17 2026.03.18 |
N15W81 |
was AR S11934 location: N14W78 |
||||||||
| 14398 | 2026.03.20 2026.03.21 |
S16W83 |
was AR S11938 location: S16W79 |
||||||||
| 14399 | 2026.03.21 2026.03.21 |
1 | 8 | 7 | S17W26 | 0050 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11941 area: 0170 location: S16W24 |
| 14401 | 2026.03.21 2026.03.22 |
12 | 35 | 18 | N25W27 | 0150 | EAI | EAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11942 area: 0300 location: N25W29 |
| 14402 | 2026.03.21 2026.03.22 |
5 | 21 | 10 | N18W18 | 0030 | CSO | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11943 area: 0080 location: N18W16 |
| S11950 | 2026.03.23 | N07W54 | |||||||||
| 14403 | 2026.03.24 2026.03.25 |
2 | 21 | 9 | N16E14 | 0070 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11952 area: 0190 location: N15E14 |
| S11953 | 2026.03.24 | S24W52 | |||||||||
| 14405 | 2026.03.26 2026.03.27 |
8 | 18 | 13 | S27E44 | 0180 | EAO | EAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11956 area: 0490 location: S26E44 |
| 14404 | 2026.03.26 2026.03.27 |
1 | 9 | 3 | N14E33 | 0030 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11957 area: 0100 location: N14E34 |
| 14406 | 2026.03.26 2026.03.27 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N09E38 | 0050 | HSX | HAX |
 |
 |
was AR S11958 area: 0140 location: N08E39 |
| S11959 | 2026.03.26 | N07E05 | |||||||||
| 14407 | 2026.03.27 2026.03.28 |
4 | 5 | 2 | N18E45 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11960 area: 0020 location: N17E44 |
| S11961 | 2026.03.27 | S15W55 | |||||||||
| 14408 | 2026.03.28 2026.03.29 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N09E64 | 0050 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11963 area: 0090 location: N09E65 |
| S11964 | 2026.03.28 | 4 | S15E32 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S11965 | 2026.03.29 | 2 | 2 | N02E68 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S11966 | 2026.03.29 | 2 | 2 | S05W05 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S11967 | 2026.03.29 | 5 | S12E01 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 35 | 133 | 68 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 125 | 263 | 178 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 75 | 176 | 111 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 138 | 145 | 142 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | 128.6 (-4.7) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | 124.7 (-3.9) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.9 | 122.4 (-2.3) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.7 | 118.2 (-4.2) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.7 | (113.5 projected, -4.7) | 14.02 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (110.0 projected, -3.5) | 15.64 |
| 2025.11 | 140.3 | 137.3 | 91.7 | (108.3 projected, -1.7) | 21.01 |
| 2025.12 | 160.8 | 155.8 | 124.0 | (107.1 projected, -1.2) | 13.35 |
| 2026.01 | 148.7 | 144.0 | 112.6 | (103.2 projected, -3.9) | 22.47 |
| 2026.02 | 136.4 | 133.1 | 78.2 | (98.9 projected, -4.2) | 12.88 |
| 2026.03 | 130.0 (1) | 80.9 (2A) / 86.5 (2B) / 100.3 (2C)
ISN month to date average: 89 |
(94.3 projected, -4.6) | (15.9) | |
| 2026.04 | (90.4 projected, -3.9) | ||||
| 2026.05 | (89.2 projected, -1.2) | ||||
| 2026.06 | (87.1 projected, -2.1) | ||||
| 2026.07 | (82.7 projected, -4.4) | ||||
| 2026.08 | (80.5 projected, -2.2) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Solar activity appears to have exited the solar max phase as of February
2026 with a strong decrease in the number of sunspots observed. The northern
polar field has weakened considerably over the last months, and although
there is a chance the the field could recover over the next 1-2 years, there
is an increasing chance that solar cycle 26 will be very weak. The southern
polar field is not impressive either, however, a southern polar coronal hole
has formed early in 2026 and appears to be growing.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
