The geomagnetic field was at active to severe storm levels. The July 1 CME that arrived late on July 3 caused a severe disturbance during the first half of July 4. At approximately 12:20 UT the arrival of yet another CME was observed at SOLAR1 causing another severe storm interval. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 565 and 719 km/sec, averaging 597 km/sec (+149 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at unsettled to severe storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux peaked at 1.7 pfu at 03:35 and decreased towards background levels by the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 160.6 - increasing 26.4 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 141.35 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 136.5 (41 days ago, this is 42.7% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 77 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 76.6). Three hour interval K indices: 676476545 (planetary), 56555555 (Boulder), 77754543 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 197) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 146) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14478 [S05W64] decayed slowly and was mostly
quiet. A major flare is still possible.
AR 14479 [N17W76] has a magnetic delta configuration in the central
spot section and was very unstable producing many C and M flares.
AR 14481 [N14E48] was quiet and mostly unchanged.
New AR 14482 [S08E77] rotated partly into view and produced an
impulsive X1.3 flare. Trailing spots are becoming visible early on July 5.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S12180 [N17W57] reemerged with a tiny spot.
AR S12187 [S10E26] was quiet and stable.
AR S12189 [S18W81] decayed and was less active than during the recent
days.
AR S12195 [N28W11] was quiet and stable.
New AR S12198 [N06W66] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S12199 [S06W14] emerged with tiny spots and has potential for
further development.
New AR S12200 [S18E20] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| M1.3 | 00:19 | S12189 | GOES18 | ||
| M2.3 | 00:23 | N16W71 | 14479 | GOES18 | |
| M2.1 | 01:13 | N16W71 | 14479 | GOES18 | |
| M1.1 | 01:30 | S12189 | GOES18 | ||
| C7.5 | 01:48 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.2 | 02:01 | 14482 | GOES18 | simultaneous flares in ARs 14478 | |
| C6.3 | 02:27 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.3 | 02:52 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.3 | 03:09 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M3.7/1N | 03:32 | N15W76 | 14479 | GOES18 | |
| M4.0 | 03:42 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.2 | 04:15 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.7 | 04:50 | 14482 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.7 | 04:59 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.4 | 05:15 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C9.5 | 05:52 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C7.4 | 06:20 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C8.1 | 06:25 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.1 | 06:50 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.9 | 06:57 | S12189 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.3 | 07:42 | N13W84 | 14479 | GOES18 | |
| M1.8 | 08:07 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.7 | 08:35 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.0 | 08:46 | N14W80 | 14479 | GOES18 | |
| C6.6 | 09:03 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.1 | 09:40 | S12189 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.8 | 09:56 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.8 | 10:08 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C7.3 | 10:20 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.6 | 10:48 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M3.2/1N | 11:12 | N14W83 | 14479 | GOES18 | |
| C8.1 | 11:42 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.0 | 12:27 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.0 | 12:36 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.9 | 12:58 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.6 | 13:31 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M3.1/1N | 13:51 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C8.3 | 14:30 | N14W83 | 14479 | GOES18 | |
| C8.5 | 14:38 | S09E90 | 14482 | GOES18 | |
| C8.0 | 15:34 | N15W81 | 14479 | GOES18 | |
| C7.4 | 15:45 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.1 | 16:06 | N14W82 | 14479 | GOES18 | |
| C4.7 | 16:46 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C7.5 | 17:02 | N14W82 | 14479 | GOES18 | |
| C7.1 | 17:11 | 14478 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.5 | 17:54 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.1 | 18:19 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.9/1N | 18:48 | N13W81 | 14479 | GOES18 | |
| M1.5 | 18:55 | 14478 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.5 | 18:58 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.5 | 19:36 | 14478 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.4 | 20:00 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| X1.3 | 20:41 | S08E90 | 14482 | GOES18 | moderate type II radio sweep |
| M1.5 | 21:04 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M2.0 | 21:15 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.6 | 21:38 | 14482 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.1/1F | 22:24 | N13W81 | 14479 | GOES18 | |
| C9.3 | 23:41 | N13W81 | 14479 | GOES18 | |
| M1.0 | 23:48 | 14479 | GOES18 |
July 2: A slow CME was observed after an M4 flare in AR 14479 early
in the day. This CME could reach Earth on July 5.
July 3: At least a partial halo CME was observed after the major
flares in ARs 14478 and 14479. The CME could reach Earth on July 6.
July 4: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
An extension of the southern polar coronal hole (CH1381) was Earth facing on July 1-2. A recurrent trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1382) could rotate across the central meridian on July 6-7.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on July 5-6 due to CME effects and quiet to unsettled on July 7-8. July 9-10 could see unsettled to minor storm conditions due to effects related to CH1382.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14477 | 2026.06.22 2026.06.23 |
S14W87 |
 |
was AR S12168 location: S14W80 SWPC on 2026.06.30 moved this AR to the location of AR S12176. On 2026.07.01 the spots of AR 14477 were included in AR 14480 |
|||||||
| 14478 | 2026.06.23 2026.06.24 |
24 | 36 | 17 | S06W59 | 0660 | FKO | FKO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S12170 area: 1010 location: S05W64 |
| 14479 | 2026.06.23 2026.06.24 |
17 | 23 | 15 | N16W79 | 0550 | FKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S12171 area: 0980 location: N17W76 |
| 14480 | 2026.06.26 2026.06.27 |
4 | S18W83 | 0050 | DAO |
was AR S12175 location: S18W85 on 2026.07.01 SWPC decided to include the spots of ARs 14477 and S12176 in this AR |
|||||
| S12180 | 2026.06.28 | 1 | 1 | N17W57 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S12181 | 2026.06.28 | N17W52 | |||||||||
| S12183 | 2026.06.29 | S14W18 | |||||||||
| S12186 | 2026.07.01 | S18W02 |
 |
||||||||
| S12187 | 2026.07.01 | 8 | 1 | S10E26 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S12189 | 2026.07.02 | 2 | 2 | S18W81 | 0120 | HAX |
 |
 |
split off from AR 14477 | ||
| S12190 | 2026.07.02 | N23E12 | |||||||||
| 14481 | 2026.07.02 2026.07.03 |
1 | 3 | 1 | N14E48 | 0010 | AXX | HRX |
 |
 |
was AR S12191 area: 0020 |
| S12192 | 2026.07.03 | N04W12 |
 |
||||||||
| S12194 | 2026.07.03 | N06W05 | |||||||||
| S12195 | 2026.07.03 | 3 | 1 | N28W11 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S12196 | 2026.07.03 | N14E33 |
 |
||||||||
| 14482 | 2026.07.04 2026.07.04 |
1 | 3 | 2 | S08E77 | 0020 | HSX | HKX |
 |
was AR S12197 area: 0470 |
|
| S12198 | 2026.07.04 | 2 | 2 | N06W66 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S12199 | 2026.07.04 | 5 | 4 | S06W14 | 0020 | DRI |
 |
||||
| S12200 | 2026.07.04 | 1 | S18E20 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 47 | 87 | 46 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 97 | 197 | 146 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 77 | 128 | 87 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 107 | 108 | 117 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | 128.6 (-4.7) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | 124.7 (-3.9) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.9 | 122.4 (-2.3) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.7 | 118.2 (-4.2) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.7 | 112.9 (-5.3) | 14.02 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | 108.3 (-4.6) | 15.64 |
| 2025.11 | 140.3 | 137.3 | 91.7 | 106.7 (-1.6) | 21.01 |
| 2025.12 | 160.8 | 155.8 | 124.0 | 106.8 (-0.1) | 13.35 |
| 2026.01 | 148.7 | 144.0 | 112.6 | (104.2 projected, -2.6) | 22.47 |
| 2026.02 | 136.4 | 133.1 | 78.2 | (99.8 projected, -4.4) | 12.88 |
| 2026.03 | 131.0 | 129.7 | 85.9 | (94.5 projected, -4.3) | 15.44 |
| 2026.04 | 120.0 | 120.9 | 79.3 | (90.6 projected, -3.9) | 12.10 |
| 2026.05 | 125.4 | 128.2 | 101.4 | (89.4 projected, -1.2) | 9.80 |
| 2026.06 | 137.9 | 142.2 | 94.3 | (87.2 projected, -2.2) | 9.7 |
| 2026.07 | 187.9 (1) | 14.7 (2A) / 114.0 (2B) / 117.5 (2C) | (82.8 projected, -4.4) | (25.1) | |
| 2026.08 | (80.7 projected, -2.1) | ||||
| 2026.09 | (79.7 projected, -1.0) | ||||
| 2026.10 | (77.7 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2026.11 | (74.9 projected, -2.8) | ||||
| 2026.12 | (71.7 projected, -3.2) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Solar activity appears to have exited the solar max phase as of February
2026 with a strong decrease in the number of sunspots observed. The northern
polar field has weakened considerably over the last months, and although
there is a chance the the field could recover over the next 1-2 years, there
is an increasing chance that solar cycle 26 will be very weak. The southern
polar field is not impressive either, however, a southern polar coronal hole
has formed early in 2026 and appears to be growing.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
