The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 364 and 647 km/sec, averaging 448 km/sec (+79 km/sec compared to the previous day). A fairly weak CME was observed with a solar wind shock at SOHO at 11:15 UT, probably the arrival of the June 30 CME. A significantly stronger CME was observed at SOLAR1 after 18:45 UT and caused a severe geomagnetic disturbance early on July 4. The most likely source is the noon CME on July 1. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels until 20:05 UT when the flux began to increase slowly. By the end of the UT day the flux had reached 0.55 pfu and peaked at 1.7 pfu early on July 4. The most likely source of the event was a major M6.3 flare in AR 14478 peaking at 18:57 UT.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 186.7 - increasing 48.8 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 141.23 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 135.7 (41 days ago, this is 42.2% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 8.3). Three hour interval K indices: 11102234 (planetary), 11113334 (Boulder), 00114334 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 280) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 200) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14477 [S14W67] produced several flares in
conjunction with AR S12189.
AR 14478 [S05W48] decayed slowly and lost the magnetic delta
configuration. Major flares are still possible.
AR 14479 [N17W64] still has several magnetic deltas and further major flares
are
possible.
New AR 14481 [N14E62] rotated into view on July 2 and was numbered by
SWPC the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S12176 [S15W76] decayed slowly and was
mostly quiet.
AR S12186 [S18E11] developed early in the day, then decayed slowly.
AR S12187 [S13E42] was quiet and stable.
AR S12188 [S20W81] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR S12189 [S18W68] produced C and M
flares in conjunction with AR 14477.
New AR S12192 [N04E01] emerged with tiny spots before noon,
then decayed slowly.
New AR S12194 [N06E08] emerged with a tiny spot.
New AR S12195 [N24E02] was observed with tiny
spots in an old plage area.
New AR S12196 [N14E46] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage
area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.9 | 00:42 | S12189/14477 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.3 | 00:47 | S16W58 | S12189/14477 | GOES18 | |
| C2.1 | 01:27 | S12189 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 01:53 | S12189 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 02:06 | S12189 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 02:28 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.1 | 02:35 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.4 | 02:48 | 14478 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.5 | 03:09 | S12189/14477 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 03:19 | 14478 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 03:37 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 03:56 | 14478 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 04:28 | 14478 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.5 | 04:54 | S12189/14477 | GOES18 | LDE | |
| C3.2 | 06:22 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.2 | 06:39 | 14478 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.7 | 06:47 | 14478 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14479 | |
| C3.1 | 07:37 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.2 | 08:09 | 14478 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.3 | 09:19 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C8.2 | 09:37 | S12189/14477 | GOES18 | ||
| C9.2/1F | 09:51 | N14W61 | 14479 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14477 |
| C7.5 | 10:20 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C9.5 | 11:08 | 14478 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.0 | 11:43 | 14478 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.4 | 11:52 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.7 | 12:05 | 14478 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.9 | 12:33 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.0 | 12:46 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.7 | 12:55 | S12189 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.4/1F | 13:13 | S16W64 | S12189/14477 | GOES18 | |
| C5.7 | 14:24 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.3 | 14:33 | S07W33 | 14478 | GOES18 | |
| C5.2 | 14:43 | 14478 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.8 | 15:01 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.4 | 15:17 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.1 | 15:29 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.3 | 15:49 | S12189 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.5 | 16:15 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.5 | 16:51 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.7 | 17:24 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.3 | 17:36 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M6.7 | 18:11 | 14479 | GOES18 | moderate type II radio sweep, CME | |
| M6.3/2B | 18:59 | S07W51 | 14478 | GOES18 | moderate type II radio sweep, CME |
| M1.1 | 19:31 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.0 | 19:46 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.5 | 20:08 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.5 | 20:12 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C8.3 | 20:32 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.0 | 21:32 | 14479 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare behind the southeast limb | |
| C6.1 | 21:43 | 14477 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.2 | 22:06 | 14478 | GOES18 | ||
| C8.4 | 22:35 | 14479 | GOES18 | ||
| M2.0 | 00:00 | S12189 | GOES18 | flare began at 23:51 UT |
July 1: A dense CME was observed after a long duration M1 event in AR 14479
near noon and reached Earth late on July 3.
July 2: A slow CME was observed after an M4 flare in AR 14479 early
in the day. This CME could reach Earth on July 5.
July 3: At least a partial halo CME was observed after the major
flares in ARs 14478 and 14479. The CME could reach Earth on July 6.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
An extension of the southern polar coronal hole (CH1381) was Earth facing on July 1-2. A recurrent trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1382) could rotate across the central meridian on July 6-7.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on July 4-6 due to CME effects.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14477 | 2026.06.22 2026.06.23 |
9 | 4 | S14W73 | 0020 | CRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S12168 location: S14W67 SWPC on 2026.06.30 moved this AR to the location of AR S12176. On 2026.07.01 the spots of AR 14477 were included in AR 14480 |
||
| 14478 | 2026.06.23 2026.06.24 |
36 | 65 | 40 | S06W46 | 0840 | FKO | FKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S12170 area: 1120 location: S06W48 |
| 14479 | 2026.06.23 2026.06.24 |
22 | 52 | 33 | N17W66 | 0640 | FKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S12171 area: 1150 location: N17W64 |
| 14480 | 2026.06.26 2026.06.27 |
13 | S18W70 | 0150 | EAI |
was AR S12175 location: S18W72 on 2026.07.01 SWPC decided to include the spots of ARs 14477 and S12176 in this AR |
|||||
| S12176 | 2026.06.27 | 3 | 3 | S15W76 | 0020 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| S12177 | 2026.06.27 | S02W58 | |||||||||
| S12180 | 2026.06.28 | N14W35 |
 |
||||||||
| S12181 | 2026.06.28 | N17W39 | |||||||||
| S12183 | 2026.06.29 | S14W05 | |||||||||
| S12185 | 2026.06.30 | S23W54 | |||||||||
| S12186 | 2026.07.01 | 1 | 1 | S18E11 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S12187 | 2026.07.01 | 2 | 1 | S13E42 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S12188 | 2026.07.02 | 1 | 1 | S20W81 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S12189 | 2026.07.02 | 7 | 4 | S18W68 | 0120 | CAO |
 |
 |
split off from AR 14477 | ||
| S12190 | 2026.07.02 | N23E25 |
 |
||||||||
| 14481 | 2026.07.02 2026.07.03 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N14E62 | 0030 | HSX | HRX |
 |
 |
was AR S12191 area: 0020 |
| S12192 | 2026.07.03 | 1 | N04E01 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S12194 | 2026.07.03 | 1 | N06E08 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S12195 | 2026.07.03 | 3 | 1 | N24E02 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S12196 | 2026.07.03 | 3 | 1 | N14E46 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 72 | 150 | 90 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 112 | 280 | 200 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 102 | 184 | 124 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 123 | 154 | 160 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | 128.6 (-4.7) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | 124.7 (-3.9) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.9 | 122.4 (-2.3) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.7 | 118.2 (-4.2) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.7 | 112.9 (-5.3) | 14.02 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | 108.3 (-4.6) | 15.64 |
| 2025.11 | 140.3 | 137.3 | 91.7 | 106.7 (-1.6) | 21.01 |
| 2025.12 | 160.8 | 155.8 | 124.0 | 106.8 (-0.1) | 13.35 |
| 2026.01 | 148.7 | 144.0 | 112.6 | (104.2 projected, -2.6) | 22.47 |
| 2026.02 | 136.4 | 133.1 | 78.2 | (99.8 projected, -4.4) | 12.88 |
| 2026.03 | 131.0 | 129.7 | 85.9 | (94.5 projected, -4.3) | 15.44 |
| 2026.04 | 120.0 | 120.9 | 79.3 | (90.6 projected, -3.9) | 12.10 |
| 2026.05 | 125.4 | 128.2 | 101.4 | (89.4 projected, -1.2) | 9.80 |
| 2026.06 | 137.9 | 142.2 | 94.3 | (87.2 projected, -2.2) | 9.7 |
| 2026.07 | 196.9 (1) | 11.6 (2A) / 119.7 (2B) / 118.1 (2C) | (82.8 projected, -4.4) | (7.9) | |
| 2026.08 | (80.7 projected, -2.1) | ||||
| 2026.09 | (79.7 projected, -1.0) | ||||
| 2026.10 | (77.7 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2026.11 | (74.9 projected, -2.8) | ||||
| 2026.12 | (71.7 projected, -3.2) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Solar activity appears to have exited the solar max phase as of February
2026 with a strong decrease in the number of sunspots observed. The northern
polar field has weakened considerably over the last months, and although
there is a chance the the field could recover over the next 1-2 years, there
is an increasing chance that solar cycle 26 will be very weak. The southern
polar field is not impressive either, however, a southern polar coronal hole
has formed early in 2026 and appears to be growing.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
