The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels on January 12, under the influence of CME effects during the first half of the day, then under the influence of a high speed stream associated with CH1338/CH1339. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 462 and 637 km/sec, averaging 544 km/sec (+25 km/sec compared to the previous day). The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 112.9 - decreasing 3.8 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 152.94 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 142.5 (41 days ago, this is 46.4% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 18 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 17.5). Three hour interval K indices: 34431234 (planetary), 34442223 (Boulder), 45432366 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 6 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 113) and in 5 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 77) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14334 [S16W56] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14336 [S09W29] decayed slowly losing spots and area. C1 flares:
C1.5 @ 08:38 UT
AR 14340 [N14E32] developed slowly during the first half of the day,
then decayed slowly. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 12:27 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
New AR S11765 [S02W45] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S11766 [N27E24] emerged with a tiny spot.
New AR S11767 [N08E05] was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage area.
A C1.4 flare at 12:47 UT had its origin behind the
southeast limb.
AR 14337 behind the northwest limb produced a C1.2 flare at 14:00 UT.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C5.2 | 10:15 | S10W20 | 14336 | GOES18 |
January 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1338) will be Earth facing on January 6-12, although likely too far to the north on January 8-10 to cause a disturbance 3 days later. A recurrent trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1338) will rotate across the central meridian on January 10. A recurrent trans equatorial positive polarity coronal hole (CH1340) will likely become Earth facing on January 15-16.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on January 13-14 due to effects from CH1338/CH1339. Quiet levels are likely on January 15-17. Effects assocatied with CH1340 could cause unsettled to minor storm levels on January 18-19.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14334 | 2026.01.01 2026.01.02 |
1 | 2 | 1 | S16W57 | 0010 | HRX | HRX |
 |
 |
was AR S11740 area: 0020 location: S16W56 |
| 14336 | 2026.01.04 2026.01.04 |
15 | 31 | 15 | S09W25 | 0250 | EHO | EKO |
 |
 |
was AR S11747 area: 0460 location: S09W29 |
| 14338 | 2026.01.06 2026.01.08 |
S06W24 |
was AR S11754 location: S05W18 |
||||||||
| S11755 | 2026.01.07 | N16W40 | |||||||||
| 14339 | 2026.01.08 2026.01.09 |
S13W37 |
 |
was AR S11756 location: S14W35 |
|||||||
| S11757 | 2026.01.08 | S07W57 | |||||||||
| 14340 | 2026.01.10 2026.01.11 |
6 | 13 | 7 | N13E31 | 0040 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
was AR S11760 area: 0080 location: N14E32 |
| S11761 | 2026.01.10 | N16E31 | merged with AR S11760 | ||||||||
| S11762 | 2026.01.11 | N08W26 |
 |
||||||||
| S11763 | 2026.01.11 | N01W36 |
 |
||||||||
| S11764 | 2026.01.11 | S15E30 |
 |
||||||||
| S11765 | 2026.01.12 | 4 | 3 | S02W45 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S11766 | 2026.01.12 | 1 | 1 | N27E24 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S11767 | 2026.01.12 | 2 | N08E05 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 22 | 53 | 27 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 52 | 113 | 77 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 40 | 71 | 45 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 57 | 62 | 62 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | 128.5 (-4.8) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | 124.7 (-3.8) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (122.4 projected, -2.3) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.5 | (119.3 projected, -3.1) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.8 | (115.8 projected, -3.5) | 14.02 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (111.8 projected, -4.0) | 15.64 |
| 2025.11 | 140.3 | 137.3 | 91.7 | (109.5 projected, -2.3) | 21.01 |
| 2025.12 | 160.8 | 155.8 | 124.0 | (108.0 projected, -1.5) | 13.35 |
| 2026.01 | 139.8 (1) | 37.5 (2A) / 96.9 (2B) / 118.2 (2C) | (104.0 projected, -4.0) | (14.5) | |
| 2026.02 | (99.9 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (95.5 projected, -4.4) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (91.8 projected, -3.7) | ||||
| 2026.05 | (90.5 projected, -1.3) | ||||
| 2026.06 | (88.4 projected, -2.1) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
