The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under the weakening influence of effect associated with CH1394. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 459 and 553 km/sec, averaging 481 km/sec (-63 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux ended the day just above 2 pfu. It began to increase slowly early in the day, before the long duration event at the west limb. The slow increase makes the northeast limb M8 flare in AR 14513 on August 20 the most likely proton source.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 125.6 - decreasing 19.0 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 138.95 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 134.5 (41 days ago, this is 41.4% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 6.6). Three hour interval K indices: 32112112 (planetary), 33232322 (Boulder), 54213114 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 198) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 151) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14507 [N02W90] rotated out of view but
managed to produce a long duration M1 event before doing so. C1 flares: C1.7
@ 07:53 UT
AR 14508 [N09W64] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14513 [N04E52] was less active than during the previous day and
displayed only minor changes with regards to spots and area. The region still has 2 magnetic delta
configurations and another major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 01:24,
C1.3 @ 03:52, C1.5 @ 05:08, C1.1 @ 05:20, C1.8 @ 05:52, C1.4 @ 20:20 UT
AR 14514 [S09W71] decayed slowly and was quiet.
New AR 14515 [S08E63] rotated into view on August 20 and was numbered
by SWPC the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S12298 [S15W46] gained rudimentary penumbra and was
mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 07:12 UT
AR S12301 [N21W03] was quiet and stable.
AR S12305 [S01E10] was quiet and stable.
AR S12307 [S28W24] was quiet and stable.
New AR S12309 [N11E40] emerged with a tiny spot.
New AR S12310 [N06E38] emerged with tiny spots.
C1 flares: C1.5 @ 22:19 UT
New AR S12311 [N17W11] emerged with tiny spots.
AR 14506 behind the northwest limb produced a C1.6 flare at 03:25 UT
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.4 | 00:25 | 14507 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 01:46 | 14507 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.1 | 02:01 | 14513 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.7 | 02:20 | 14507 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.7 | 02:37 | 14513 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.2 | 06:35 | N06E60 | 14513 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14507 |
| C2.1 | 07:32 | 14507 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.6 | 09:56 | 14507 | GOES18 | LDE, CME | |
| M1.6 | 10:17 | 14513 | GOES18 | superimposed on above flare | |
| C4.7 | 13:44 | 14513 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.6 | 14:39 | 14513 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 15:30 | 14513 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.4 | 17:53 | N08E64 | 14513 | GOES18 | |
| C2.0 | 18:32 | N09E63 | 14513 | GOES18 | |
| C4.0 | 20:59 | 14513 | GOES18 |
August 19-20: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
August 21: It's not likely there will be any significant disturbance
related to the large and wide CME observed after the M1 long duration event
in AR 14507 at the west limb. However, coronagraph imagery does display
ejecta around the solar disc in all directions. While the main ejecta is not
headed towards Earth, there is a slight chance of a weak solar wind shock on
August 24.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A positive polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1395) could become Earth facing on August 24-26.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on August 22-24 with a minor chance of weak effects on August 24 related to the August 21 CME.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14507 | 2026.08.10 2026.08.11 |
2 | 1 | N02W90 | 0130 | HAX |
 |
 |
was AR S12283 |
||
| 14508 | 2026.08.10 2026.08.11 |
2 | 3 | 2 | N09W64 | 0030 | HRX | HRX |
 |
 |
was AR S12284 |
| 14511 | 2026.08.12 2026.08.13 |
S09W44 |
was AR S12291 location: S11W32 |
||||||||
| S12293 | 2026.08.13 | S12W51 | |||||||||
| S12298 | 2026.08.15 | 6 | 5 | S14W31 | 0030 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 14514 | 2026.08.17 2026.08.20 |
4 | 6 | 4 | S10W70 | 0020 | CRO | CRI |
 |
 |
was AR S12300 location: S09W71 |
| S12301 | 2026.08.18 | 10 | 5 | N21W04 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 14513 | 2026.08.19 2026.08.19 |
12 | 32 | 17 | N04E55 | 0200 | EAC | EAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S12302 area: 0380 location: N04E52 |
| S12303 | 2026.08.19 | S15W55 | |||||||||
| S12304 | 2026.08.19 | N05E43 |
 |
||||||||
| S12305 | 2026.08.19 | 10 | 3 | S01E10 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 14515 | 2026.08.20 2026.08.21 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S08E63 | 0010 | HRX | HAX |
 |
 |
was AR S12306 area: 0050 |
| S12307 | 2026.08.20 | 2 | S28W24 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S12308 | 2026.08.20 | S16E04 |
 |
||||||||
| S12309 | 2026.08.21 | 1 | 1 | N11E40 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S12310 | 2026.08.21 | 2 | 1 | N06E38 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S12311 | 2026.08.21 | 3 | 1 | N17W11 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 19 | 78 | 41 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 59 | 198 | 151 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 33 | 99 | 62 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 65 | 109 | 121 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | 128.6 (-4.7) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | 124.7 (-3.9) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.9 | 122.5 (-2.2) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.7 | 118.4 (-4.1) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.7 | 113.1 (-5.3) | 14.02 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | 108.5 (-4.6) | 15.64 |
| 2025.11 | 140.3 | 137.3 | 91.7 | 106.9 (-1.6) | 21.01 |
| 2025.12 | 160.8 | 155.8 | 124.0 | 107.0 (-0.1) | 13.35 |
| 2026.01 | 148.7 | 144.0 | 115.0 | 104.2 (-2.8) | 22.47 |
| 2026.02 | 136.4 | 133.1 | 77.4 | (99.7 projected, -4.5) | 12.88 |
| 2026.03 | 131.0 | 129.7 | 86.6 | (94.6 projected, -5.1) | 15.44 |
| 2026.04 | 120.0 | 120.9 | 79.3 | (90.7 projected, -3.9) | 12.10 |
| 2026.05 | 125.4 | 128.2 | 101.4 | (89.5 projected, -1.2) | 9.80 |
| 2026.06 | 137.9 | 142.2 | 94.3 | (87.4 projected, -2.1) | 9.57 |
| 2026.07 | 134.7 | 139.0 | 78.1 | (82.8 projected, -4.6) | 10.16 |
| 2026.08 | 113.7 (1) | 54.4 (2A) / 80.3 (2B) / 100.5 (2C) ISN average to date: 78.5. At this level the SSN for February 2026 would become 99.9 |
(80.6 projected, -2.2) | (9.6) | |
| 2026.09 | (79.7 projected, -0.9) | ||||
| 2026.10 | (77.7 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2026.11 | (74.8 projected, -2.9) | ||||
| 2026.12 | (71.6 projected, -3.2) | ||||
| 2027.01 | (69.3 projected, -2.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Solar activity appears to have exited the solar max phase as of February
2026 with a strong decrease in the number of sunspots observed. The northern
polar field has weakened considerably over the last months, and although
there is a chance the the field could recover over the next 1-2 years, there
is an increasing chance that solar cycle 26 will be very weak. The southern
polar field is not impressive either, however, a southern polar coronal hole
has formed early in 2026 and appears to be growing.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
