The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on September 21. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 291 and 354 km/sec, averaging 327 km/sec (-59 km/sec compared to the previous day). A CIR associated with CH1317 is in progress early on September 22. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 176.0 - increasing 1.1 over the previous solar rotation. The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 169.09 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 150.3 (41 days ago, this is 51.4% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 4.3). Three hour interval K indices: 11202111 (planetary), 12203222 (Boulder), 11112223 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 19 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 364) and in 16 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 244) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14216 [N10W58] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14217 [S16W22] developed as new flux emerged around the large
leading penumbra. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 03:13, C1.6 @ 10:01, C1.8 @ 20:24 UT
AR 14220 [S18W57] produced several low level C flares and was mostly
unchanged.
AR 14221 [N03W26] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14223 [S18W02] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14224 [S11W27] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14225 [N09E14] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14226 [S10E59] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.4 @ 01:35, C1.7 @ 03:34 UT
AR 14227 [S19E54] was mostly quiet and stable.
New AR 14228 [N04E68] rotated into view on September 20 and was
numbered the next day by SWPC. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 12:03 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S11435 [N24W47] reemerged with a tiny spot.
S11443 [S24W21] was quiet and stable.
S11444 [S14W09] matured and produced a few C flares. C1 flares: C1.4
@ 08:04, C1.7 @ 19:49 UT. Note that this is currently AR 14224 to SWPC.
S11445 [N08E33] was quiet and stable.
S11446 [S10E08] was quiet and stable.
S11450 [S27E24] was quiet and stable.
New AR S11454 [N01E12] emerged with a tiny spot.
New AR S11455 [N30E60] emerged with a tiny spot.
A C1.6 flare at 07:27 and a C1.4 flare at 13:04 UT had
their origin behind the southeast limb.
A C1.5 flare at 08:36 UT was produced by AR 14219 at the northwest limb.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.4 | 05:06 | 14217 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 05:33 | 14220 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 06:46 | 14220 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 14:45 | S16W14 | 14217 | GOES18 | |
| C2.3 | 17:08 | 14220 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.3 | 17:43 | S11444 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.6 | 21:16 | S11444 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 21:31 | S11444 | GOES18 |
September 19-21: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1317) was Earth facing on September 19-21.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on September 22-24 due to effects related to CH1317.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14216 | 2025.09.10 2025.09.11 |
7 | 9 | 4 | N11W59 | 0070 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11423 area: 0140 location: N10W58 |
| 14220 | 2025.09.12 2025.09.15 |
20 | 23 | 17 | S18W55 | 0300 | EKI | EHI |
 |
 |
was AR S11429 area: 0400 location: S18W57 |
| 14217 | 2025.09.13 2025.09.14 |
10 | 31 | 17 | S17W19 | 0210 | EAO | DKI |
 |
 |
was AR S11433 location: S16W22 area: 0320 |
| S11435 | 2025.09.13 | 1 | 1 | N24W47 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
||||
| 14221 | 2025.09.14 2025.09.15 |
4 | 7 | 1 | N04W25 | 0090 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11436 area: 0150 location: N03W26 |
| S11437 | 2025.09.14 | N23W54 | |||||||||
| S11438 | 2025.09.14 | S13W36 | |||||||||
| 14222 | 2025.09.16 | N13W49 | trailing spots of AR 14216 | ||||||||
| 14223 | 2025.09.15 2025.09.16 |
1 | 12 | 4 | S17W07 | 0040 | CAO | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11439 location: S18W02 |
| 14224 | 2025.09.15 2025.09.16 |
7 | 5 | S13W08 | 0050 | DAI | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S11440 SWPC data correspond to that of AR S11444. The location of the original AR 14224 was S11E17 on 2025.09.18 and S11E02 on 2025.09.19. actual location: S11W27 area:0007 |
|
| S11441 | 2025.09.16 | 4 | 1 | N14E07 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 14225 | 2025.09.16 2025.09.16 |
4 | 19 | 7 | N09E14 | 0220 | DAO | CKO |
 |
 |
was AR S11442 area: 0330 |
| S11443 | 2025.09.18 | 4 | 2 | S24W21 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11444 | 2025.09.18 | 23 | 11 | S14W09 | 0180 | DAI |
 |
 |
SWPC has moved AR 14224 to this AR |
||
| S11445 | 2025.09.18 | 9 | 4 | N08E33 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11446 | 2025.09.19 | 7 | 3 | S08E19 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 14227 | 2025.09.19 2025.09.20 |
2 | 7 | 4 | S19E53 | 0080 | CAO | HAX |
 |
 |
was AR S11448 area: 0150 location: S19E54 |
| 14226 | 2025.09.19 2025.09.20 |
2 | 8 | 6 | S09E56 | 0060 | DSO | DSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11449 location: S10E59 area: 0270 |
| S11450 | 2025.09.19 | 2 | S27E24 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S11451 | 2025.09.19 | S31W16 | |||||||||
| S11452 | 2025.09.20 | N25E27 |
 |
||||||||
| 14228 | 2025.09.20 2025.09.21 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N04E66 | 0010 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11453 area: 0090 location: N04E68 |
| S11454 | 2025.09.21 | 1 | 1 | N01E12 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S11455 | 2025.09.21 | 1 | N30E60 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 57 | 174 | 84 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 157 | 364 | 244 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 107 | 237 | 147 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 173 | 200 | 195 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.1 (-3.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.3 (-5.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.3 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.9 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | (135.6 projected, -4.3) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (132.5 projected, -3.1) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 79.2 | (127.6 projected, -4.9) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 116.3 | (122.8 projected, -4.8) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (118.9 projected, -3.9) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.6 | (114.1 projected, -4.8) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 146.1 (1) | 81.1 (2A) / 115.8 (2B) / 148.1 (2C) ISN average to date: 122. At this level the SSN for March 2025 will become 135.7 |
(109.7 projected, -4.4) | (12.4) | |
| 2025.10 | (105.8 projected, -3.9) | ||||
| 2025.11 | (103.6 projected, -2.2) | ||||
| 2025.12 | (101.9 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (97.8 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (93.7 projected, -4.1) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Compared to the peak of SC25 solar flux has been at a low level in both May
and June 2025. Taking a closer look at the 81 day (3 solar rotations)
average solar flux proxy, its peak was in early September 2024 and had on
May 12 decreased to less than half of the solar cycle flux range.
Subtracting the 81 day average of approximately 69 at solar cycle minimum
from all measurements, the SC25 range is 0 - 158.3.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
