The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels on September 16 under the influence of effects related to CH1316. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 651 and 801 km/sec, averaging 733 km/sec (+40 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to major storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 134.9 - increasing 15.2 over the previous solar rotation. The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 169.09 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 148.4 (41 days ago, this is 50.2% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 18 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 18.1). Three hour interval K indices: 53433223 (planetary), 54433322 (Boulder), 64434355 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 254) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 168) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14216 [N10E09] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14217 [S15E44] decayed slowly and flare activity decreased
significantly. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 03:04, C1.0 @ 09:12 UT
AR 14219 [N25W30] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14220 [S18E14] developed slowly and produced a few C flares. C1
flares: C1.1 @ 10:24 UT
AR 14221 [N04E42] developed slowly and quietly.
New AR 14223 [S16E63] rotated into view on September 15 and was
numbered the next day by SWPC. The region has polarity intermixing as well
as a tiny magnetic delta configuration. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 08:39, C1.7 @
11:00, C1.8 @ 11:28, C1.6 @ 22:01 UT
New AR 14224 [S09E44] emerged on September 15 and received its NOAA
number the following day as slow development persisted. C1 flares: C1.0 @
02:00, C1.8 @ 12:17 UT
New AR 14225 [N10E80] began to rotate into view before noon with a
large, mature spot.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S11418 [N21W34] reemerged with tiny spots.
S11435 [N20E02] gained spots and was quiet.
New AR S11441 [N12E67] emerged before noon, then decayed
slowly.
AR 14213 behind the southwest limb produced a C1.2
flare at 01:26 UT.
AR 14218 behind the northwest limb was the source of a C1.0 flare at 10:11
UT
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.5 | 04:58 | 14217 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.6 | 11:58 | 14220 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.2 | 12:42 | 14223 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.8 | 13:14 | 14220 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.4 | 14:03 | 14223 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.7 | 14:42 | 14223 | GOES18 | LDE | |
| C2.5 | 17:35 | 14216 | GOES18 |
September 14-16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A large recurrent trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1316) rotated across the central meridian on September 10-13. A recurrent northern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1317) could become Earth facing on September 18-19.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on September 17-18 due to effects related to CH1316. Quiet levels are likely on September 19-20. Effects related to CH1317 could cause quiet to minor storm levels on September 21-22.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| S11418 | 2025.09.08 | 4 | 1 | N21W34 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S11421 | 2025.09.09 | S08W43 | |||||||||
| S11422 | 2025.09.10 | N20W45 | |||||||||
| 14216 | 2025.09.10 2025.09.11 |
8 | 35 | 18 | N10E09 | 0190 | CAI | FSI |
 |
 |
was AR S11423 area: 0320 |
| S11424 | 2025.09.11 | N09W27 | |||||||||
| S11427 | 2025.09.12 | S17W24 | |||||||||
| S11428 | 2025.09.12 | N08W18 | |||||||||
| 14220 | 2025.09.12 2025.09.15 |
7 | 26 | 14 | S18E14 | 0020 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
was AR S11429 area: 0090 |
| 14219 | 2025.09.13 2025.09.15 |
3 | 11 | 2 | N26W30 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11431 area: 0020 location: N25W30 |
| 14217 | 2025.09.13 2025.09.14 |
8 | 19 | 12 | S16E47 | 0180 | EAO | EAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11433 location: S15E44 area: 0300 |
| S11434 | 2025.09.13 | S23W42 | |||||||||
| S11435 | 2025.09.13 | 9 | 4 | N20E02 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 14221 | 2025.09.14 2025.09.15 |
3 | 10 | 7 | N04E44 | 0050 | CSO | DSI |
 |
 |
was AR S11436 area: 0190 |
| S11437 | 2025.09.14 | N23E11 | |||||||||
| S11438 | 2025.09.14 | S13E29 | |||||||||
| 14222 | 2025.09.16 | 3 | N13E22 | 0010 | AXX | faulty interpretation by SWPC/USAF, these are the trailing spots of AR 14216 | |||||
| 14223 | 2025.09.15 2025.09.16 |
3 | 16 | 4 | S17E63 | 0020 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S11439 area: 0080 location: S16E63 |
| 14224 | 2025.09.15 2025.09.16 |
4 | 11 | 5 | S09E44 | 0010 | BXO | DRI |
 |
 |
was AR S11440 area: 0030 |
| S11441 | 2025.09.16 | 2 | N12E67 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| 14225 | 2025.09.16 2025.09.16 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N10E81 | 0050 | HSX | HHX |
 |
was AR S11442 area: 0340 |
|
| Total spot count: | 40 | 144 | 68 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 130 | 254 | 168 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 66 | 178 | 102 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 143 | 140 | 134 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.1 (-3.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.3 (-5.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.3 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.9 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | (135.6 projected, -4.3) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (132.5 projected, -3.1) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 79.2 | (127.6 projected, -4.9) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 116.3 | (122.8 projected, -4.8) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (118.9 projected, -3.9) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.6 | (114.1 projected, -4.8) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 141.7 (1) | 57.5 (2A) / 107.8 (2B) / 134.9 (2C) | (109.7 projected, -4.4) | (14.7) | |
| 2025.10 | (105.8 projected, -3.9) | ||||
| 2025.11 | (103.6 projected, -2.2) | ||||
| 2025.12 | (101.9 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (97.8 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (93.7 projected, -4.1) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Compared to the peak of SC25 solar flux has been at a low level in both May
and June 2025. Taking a closer look at the 81 day (3 solar rotations)
average solar flux proxy, its peak was in early September 2024 and had on
May 12 decreased to less than half of the solar cycle flux range.
Subtracting the 81 day average of approximately 69 at solar cycle minimum
from all measurements, the SC25 range is 0 - 158.3.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
