The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on October 5 as the effects associated with CH1321 decreased significantly. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 421 and 638 km/sec, averaging 505 km/sec (-120 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was
147.7 -
increasing 23.1
over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 167.28 (183 days ago). The 81 day
average solar flux at 1 AU was 157.2 (41 days ago, this is 55.7% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81
day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of
69 at solar minimum).
SC25 365d peak:
195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 8.3). Three hour interval K indices: 33322101 (planetary), 33322211 (Boulder), 43323203 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 17 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 360) and in 16 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 262) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14232 [N03W47] was mostly unchanged and
quiet. M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 02:27 UT
AR 14233 [N19W41] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14235 [N26W41] was quiet and stable.
AR 14236 [N10W55] decayed losing spots and area.
AR 14240 [N18E08] was quiet and stable.
AR 14241 [N14W07] decayed slowly and was mostly
quiet.
AR 14242 [S10E01] decayed slowly and produced low level C flares.
AR 14243 [N19E28] gained a few spots and was quiet.
New AR 14244 [S20E62] rotated into view on October 4 and was numbered
the next day by SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S11491 [S11W10] was quiet and stable.
S11495 [N08W48] was mostly quiet and stable.
S11501 [N08W07] decayed early in the day, then developed slowly after
noon.
S11502 [N15E20] was quiet and stable.
S11503 [S00E19] developed slowly and quietly.
New AR S11504 [N12W03] emerged with several spots close to the
trailing spots of AR 14241.
New AR S11505 [N23E77] rotated into view with a few spots.
New AR S11506 [S10E43] emerged with tiny spots.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 03:10 | 14242 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 03:40 | behind southwest limb | 14230 | GOES18 | |
| C3.2 | 04:03 | behind southwest limb | 14230 | GOES18 | |
| C2.6 | 04:27 | 14232 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 05:39 | behind southwest limb | 14230 | GOES18 | |
| C2.0 | 09:40 | behind southwest limb | 14230 | GOES18 | |
| C2.1 | 09:56 | 14232 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 10:59 | 14233 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.1 | 12:46 | behind southwest limb | 14230 | GOES18 | |
| C4.0 | 13:25 | behind southwest limb | 14230 | GOES18 | |
| C4.0 | 13:49 | 14236 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14230 | |
| C2.3 | 15:13 | behind southwest limb | 14230 | GOES18 | |
| C2.1 | 18:03 | S11504 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 18:32 | 14242 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 19:06 | behind southwest limb | 14230 | GOES18 | |
| C2.1 | 21:40 | 14232 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 21:51 | 14242 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 22:26 | 14242 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.2 | 23:02 | behind southwest limb | 14230 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14242 |
| C3.4 | 23:42 | northwest limb | S11499 | GOES18 |
October 4-5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
October 3: A faint CME was observed after an M1.5 flare in AR 14236
at 05:22 UT. The CME could reach Earth on October 6.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent negative polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1322) could rotate across the central meridian on October 7-9.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on October 6-7 if the October 3 CME arrives. If it fails to arrive quiet levels are likely until October 9. Quiet to minor storm levels are possible on October 10-12 due to effects associated with CH1322.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14233 | 2025.09.25 2025.09.27 |
7 | 3 | N19W45 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11461 location: N19W41 |
||
| 14232 | 2025.09.26 2025.09.26 |
15 | 27 | 16 | N04W49 | 0260 | DKI | DKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11462 area: 0430 location: N03W47 |
| 14235 | 2025.09.27 2025.09.27 |
1 | 3 | 1 | N27W47 | 0010 | AXX | HRX |
 |
 |
location: N26W41 area: 0015 SWPC location is way off |
| 14236 | 2025.09.27 2025.09.28 |
14 | 23 | 12 | N10W57 | 0190 | EAC | EAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11469 area: 0440 location: N10W55 |
| 14240 | 2025.09.29 2025.09.30 |
8 | N17W03 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11480 location: N18E08 |
|||
| 14241 | 2025.09.30 2025.10.01 |
8 | 16 | 11 | N14W09 | 0060 | EAO | DAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11484 area: 0100 location: N14W07 |
| S11486 | 2025.09.30 | N35W24 |
 |
||||||||
| S11489 | 2025.10.01 | N03E09 | |||||||||
| S11490 | 2025.10.02 | N17E03 | |||||||||
| S11491 | 2025.10.02 | 8 | 3 | S11W10 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| 14243 | 2025.10.02 2025.10.03 |
3 | 18 | 9 | N18E27 | 0020 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
was AR S11492 area: 0050 location: N19E28 |
| S11493 | 2025.10.02 | N10W36 | |||||||||
| 14242 | 2025.10.02 2025.10.03 |
13 | 34 | 19 | S11W01 | 0090 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11494 area: 0170 location: S10E01 |
| S11495 | 2025.10.03 | 19 | 10 | N08W48 | 0050 | DRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S11496 | 2025.10.03 | N09E18 | |||||||||
| S11497 | 2025.10.03 | N29W15 |
 |
||||||||
| S11498 | 2025.10.03 | S19E07 | |||||||||
| S11499 | 2025.10.04 | N08W89 |
 |
||||||||
| 14244 | 2025.10.04 2025.10.05 |
3 | 3 | 2 | S21E64 | 0010 | AXX | HRX |
 |
 |
was AR S11500 area: 0015 location: S20E62 |
| S11501 | 2025.10.04 | 4 | 2 | N08W07 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11502 | 2025.10.04 | 2 | 2 | N15E20 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11503 | 2025.10.04 | 3 | 2 | S00E19 | 0010 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11504 | 2025.10.05 | 11 | 7 | N12W03 | 0080 | DRO |
 |
||||
| S11505 | 2025.10.05 | 2 | 2 | N23E77 | 0015 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S11506 | 2025.10.05 | 2 | 1 | S10E43 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 57 | 190 | 102 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 127 | 360 | 262 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 85 | 242 | 154 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 140 | 198 | 210 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.1 (-3.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.3 (-5.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.3 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.9 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 136.0 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (133.7 projected, -2.3) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 79.2 | (130.1 projected, -3.6) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 116.3 | (126.3 projected, -3.8) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (123.0 projected, -3.3) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.6 | (119.4 projected, -3.6) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.6 | (115.5 projected, -3.9) | 14.1 |
| 2025.10 | 165.3 (1) | 23.7 (2A) / 147.2 (2B) / 155.6 (2C) | (111.5 projected, -4.0) | (30.0) | |
| 2025.11 | (109.3 projected, -2.2) | ||||
| 2025.12 | (107.6 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (103.5 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (99.4 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (95.0 projected, -4.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Compared to the peak of SC25 solar flux has been at a low level in both May
and June 2025. Taking a closer look at the 81 day (3 solar rotations)
average solar flux proxy, its peak was in early September 2024 and had on
May 12 decreased to less than half of the solar cycle flux range.
Subtracting the 81 day average of approximately 69 at solar cycle minimum
from all measurements, the SC25 range is 0 - 158.3.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
