The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm levels on October 2, strongly under the influence of effects associated with CH1320 and CH1321. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 639 and 790 km/sec, averaging 719 km/sec (-3 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to very severe storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was
167.8 -
increasing 18.8
over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 168.39 (183 days ago). The 81 day
average solar flux at 1 AU was 156.7 (41 days ago, this is 55.4% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81
day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of
69 at solar minimum).
SC25 365d peak:
195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 46 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 46.0). Three hour interval K indices: 67454354 (planetary), 55555344 (Boulder), 87544265 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 306) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 203) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14230 [S10W66] decayed and lost the magnetic
delta. M flares are still possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 04:35 UT
AR 14232 [N04W04] developed slowly gaining spots and area both to the
northeast and southeast of the main penumbra. A major flare is possible. C1
flares: C1.7 @ 01:44, C1.8 @ 03:16, C1.8 @ 12:32 UT
AR 14233 [N19W02] developed slowly early in the day, then decayed
again after noon.
AR 14235 [N26W03] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 14236 [N10W14] produced an M1.5 flare at 05:22 UT on October 3.
Awaiting the availability of LASCO imagery to discover if there was a CME
related to this event. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 13:31, C1.8 @ 19:27, C1.8 @ 22:17
UT
AR 14238 [S14W72] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 14240 [N17E42] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14241 [N13E31] developed slowly and could produce C flares.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
New AR S11490 [N18W20] emerged with tiny spots
before noon, then decayed slowly.
New AR S11491 [S10E30] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S11492 [N18E69] emerged with a few
spots.
New AR S11493 [N10E03] emerged before noon, then decayed
slowly.
New AR S11494 [S11E39] emerged with several
spots.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| M1.2 | 02:09 | S09W85 | 14226 | GOES18 | moderate type II radio sweep |
| C5.2 | 02:22 | N29E14 | 14235 | GOES18 | |
| C4.0 | 02:30 | 14235 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.1/1N | 04:47 | N18E06 | 14233 | GOES18 | |
| C2.2 | 05:59 | 14230 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.8 | 07:21 | N18E06 | 14233 | GOES18 | |
| C3.1 | 08:38 | 14230 | GOES19 | ||
| C2.4 | 09:50 | 14226 | GOES19 | ||
| C2.9 | 09:56 | 14226 | GOES19 | ||
| C3.0 | 14:17 | 14226 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 15:35 | 14230 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 16:37 | 14236 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 17:03 | N09W10 | 14236 | GOES18 | |
| C2.2 | 20:33 | N05W05 | 14232 | GOES18 | |
| C2.1 | 22:48 | 14236 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 23:47 | behind southeast limb | GOES18 |
October 1-2: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
September 30: A partial halo CME was observed after the M2.7 flare in
AR S11463 at 09:40 UT. There is a chance of weak shock effects on October 3.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A trans equatorial positive polarity coronal hole (CH1320) rotated across the central meridian on September 29 - October 1. A recurrent southern hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole (CH1321) will be Earth facing on September 29 - October 4.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on October 3-6 due to effects from CH1320/CH1321.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14226 | 2025.09.19 2025.09.20 |
2 | S09W90 | 0090 | HSX |
 |
was AR S11449 rotated out of view |
||||
| 14228 | 2025.09.20 2025.09.21 |
N05W83 |
 |
was AR S11453 location: N05W76 |
|||||||
| 14230 | 2025.09.22 2025.09.23 |
14 | 15 | 7 | S10W65 | 0300 | EKI | EKO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11456 location: S10W66 area: 0400 SWPC spot data copy of previous day |
| 14233 | 2025.09.25 2025.09.27 |
3 | 22 | 8 | N17W03 | 0005 | BXO | CRI |
 |
 |
was AR S11461 area: 0040 location: N19W02 |
| 14232 | 2025.09.26 2025.09.26 |
18 | 41 | 30 | N04W06 | 0300 | DHI | DHC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11462 area: 0570 location: N04W04 |
| S11465 | 2025.09.26 | S08W31 | |||||||||
| S11466 | 2025.09.26 | S30W53 | |||||||||
| 14234 | 2025.09.27 2025.09.27 |
S23W50 |
was AR S11467 location: S27W45 |
||||||||
| 14235 | 2025.09.27 2025.09.27 |
1 | 3 | 2 | N27W04 | 0020 | HRX | HAX |
 |
 |
area: 0030 location: N26W03 |
| 14236 | 2025.09.27 2025.09.28 |
20 | 38 | 23 | N10W14 | 0300 | DKI | EHI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11469 area: 0650 |
| S11470 | 2025.09.27 | N07W29 | |||||||||
| S11473 | 2025.09.27 | N02W47 | |||||||||
| 14237 | 2025.09.28 2025.09.29 |
N16W47 |
was AR S11474 location: N15W46 |
||||||||
| 14238 | 2025.09.28 2025.09.29 |
5 | 8 | 3 | S14W69 | 0100 | DSO | DAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11476 area: 0140 location: S14W72 |
| S11477 | 2025.09.28 | S03W44 | |||||||||
| 14239 | 2025.09.29 | S10W69 | AR should be deleted, it was never a region on its own | ||||||||
| S11479 | 2025.09.29 | N09W45 | |||||||||
| 14240 | 2025.09.29 2025.09.30 |
1 | 5 | 1 | N16E39 | 0010 | AXX | HRX |
 |
 |
was AR S11480 area: 0015 |
| S11481 | 2025.09.29 | S16W25 | |||||||||
| S11483 | 2025.09.30 | N06W32 | |||||||||
| 14241 | 2025.09.30 2025.10.01 |
7 | 23 | 12 | N14E34 | 0030 | DRO | DAI |
 |
 |
was AR S11484 area: 0130 location: N13E31 |
| S11485 | 2025.09.30 | N21W25 | |||||||||
| S11486 | 2025.09.30 | N31E14 |
 |
||||||||
| S11489 | 2025.10.01 | N03E48 |
 |
||||||||
| S11490 | 2025.10.02 | 3 | 2 | N17E42 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S11491 | 2025.10.02 | 4 | S10E20 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S11492 | 2025.10.02 | 3 | 2 | N18E69 | 0025 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S11493 | 2025.10.02 | 3 | N10E03 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S11494 | 2025.10.02 | 8 | 3 | S11E39 | 0030 | DRO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 71 | 176 | 93 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 161 | 306 | 203 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 117 | 233 | 150 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 177 | 168 | 162 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.1 (-3.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.3 (-5.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.3 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.9 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 136.0 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (133.7 projected, -2.3) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 79.2 | (130.1 projected, -3.6) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 116.3 | (126.3 projected, -3.8) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (123.0 projected, -3.3) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.6 | (119.4 projected, -3.6) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.6 | (115.5 projected, -3.9) | 14.1 |
| 2025.10 | 175.9 (1) | 10.4 (2A) / 161 (2B) / 149.0 (2C) | (111.5 projected, -4.0) | (47.1) | |
| 2025.11 | (109.3 projected, -2.2) | ||||
| 2025.12 | (107.6 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (103.5 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (99.4 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (95.0 projected, -4.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Compared to the peak of SC25 solar flux has been at a low level in both May
and June 2025. Taking a closer look at the 81 day (3 solar rotations)
average solar flux proxy, its peak was in early September 2024 and had on
May 12 decreased to less than half of the solar cycle flux range.
Subtracting the 81 day average of approximately 69 at solar cycle minimum
from all measurements, the SC25 range is 0 - 158.3.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
