The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels on November 13 due to CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 598 and 1000 km/sec, averaging 790 km/sec (+62 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at quiet to severe storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux peaked started the UT day at 104 pfu and decreased throughout the day to 4.6 pfu.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 155.9 - decreasing 8.4 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 159.56 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 153.9 (41 days ago, this is 53.8% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 57 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 56.8). Three hour interval K indices: 77645331 (planetary), 68645532 (Boulder), 76535332 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 299) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 162) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14274 [N24W63] decayed further losing spots
and magnetic complexity. Increased penumbral area was observed in the
leading spot section. Only one significant magnetic delta configuration
remains (in the leading spot section), otherwise most of the negative polarity
spots are gone. Another major flare is still possible. C1 flares: C1.6 @
07:33, C1.4 @ 09:50, C1.3 @ 12:23, C1.5 @ 12:35, C1.6 @ 12:46, C1.4 @ 13:10,
C1.5 @ 18:37, C1.4 @ 18:58, C1.6 @ 20:36 UT
AR 14275 [N07W64] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14276 [S15W32] continued to display polarity intermixing around
the main penumbra and produced several C flares. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 06:09,
C1.4 @ 06:50, C1.3 @ 08:20, C1.2 @ 09:16, C1.7 @ 10:28, C1.3 @ 10:42, C1.9 @
11:07, C1.4 @ 22:19 UT
AR 14277 [S05W30] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14278 [N12W33] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14279 [S13E05] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14280 [S08E21] was quiet and stable.
AR 14281 [S14W77] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.7 @ 20:04 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S11596 [S07E03] was quiet and stable.
AR S11601 [S18W20] was quiet and stable. The former trailing spots of
AR 14276 was added to this group.
AR S11602 [N10E38] was quiet and stable.
AR S11605 [S13E46] was quiet and stable.
New AR S11606 [N07E50] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S11607 [N04E15] emerged with a tiny spot.
Minor update added at 08:35 UT: AR 14274 produced an M1.8 flare at 07:38 UT. This appeared to trigger a much stronger flare, an X4.0 event peaking at 08:30 UT. This could be a significant proton event as well, especially considering the favorable position near the west limb.
Minor update added at 11:20 UT: The above 10 MeV proton flux appears to have peaked at 16.5 pfu at 09:50 UT and is currently hovering just above the 10 pfu level. An asymmetric full halo CME was observed after the X4 event. Although most of the ejecta were observed off the northwest limb and won't affect Earth, the wide CME was visible all around the disk. A solar wind shock is possible on November 16.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C4.3 | 00:10 | N25W48 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C4.0 | 00:57 | N28W45 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C6.1 | 03:34 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 04:52 | 14276 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.1 | 05:08 | 14276 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 06:36 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 06:40 | 14276 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.0 | 13:26 | S17W26 | 14276 | GOES18 | |
| C2.2 | 13:43 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 14:31 | N22W61 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C2.3 | 15:06 | S02E70 (SDO/AIA) | spotless plage | GOES18 | |
| C2.0 | 15:31 | 14276 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.5 | 15:56 | 14276 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.9 | 16:39 | 14276 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14274 | |
| C3.3 | 17:25 | S17W29 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C2.2 | 19:39 | 14274 | GOES18 |
November 11: A full halo CME was observed after the X5.1 proton event
in AR 14274 peaking at 10:04 UT. The CME reached SOHO at 18:55 UT on November 12.
November 12-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery. A filament eruption in the southeast quadrant
at 17h on November 13 was associated with a CME observed off the southeast
limb, it's still uncertain if this has any Earth directed components.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1330) will be Earth facing on November 13-15.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on November 14-15. Effects from CH1330 could cause quiet to minor storm levels on November 16-17.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14272 | 2025.11.01 2025.11.01 |
N22W81 |
 |
was AR S11574 | |||||||
| 14274 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
15 | 34 | 18 | N24W64 | 0800 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
was AR S11575 beta-gamma-delta area: 1350 location: N24W63 |
| 14275 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
1 | 5 | 3 | N08W64 | 0070 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11577 area: 0170 location: N07W64 |
| 14276 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.06 |
6 | 22 | 8 | S17W29 | 0040 | CAO | CAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11581 area: 0090 location: S15W32 |
| 14278 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.07 |
2 | N11W36 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11582 location: N12W33 |
|||
| 14277 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.07 |
5 | 23 | 6 | S07W30 | 0070 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11583 area: 0160 location: S05W30 |
| 14279 | 2025.11.07 2025.11.09 |
1 | 14 | 4 | S13E04 | 0020 | HSX | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11587 area: 0040 location: S13E05 |
| 14281 | 2025.11.08 2025.11.11 |
1 | 10 | 5 | S14W78 | 0020 | HRX | DAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11589 area: 0070 location: S14W77 |
| S11590 | 2025.11.08 | N19W47 | |||||||||
| S11591 | 2025.11.08 | N14W19 | |||||||||
| S11592 | 2025.11.08 | S32W41 | |||||||||
| 14280 | 2025.11.09 2025.11.10 |
5 | 17 | 9 | S08E22 | 0030 | CRO | CRI |
 |
 |
was AR S11593 area: 0050 location: S08E21 |
| S11594 | 2025.11.10 | N17W52 | |||||||||
| S11596 | 2025.11.10 | 4 | 2 | S07E03 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S11597 | 2025.11.10 | S23W52 | |||||||||
| S11598 | 2025.11.10 | S32W21 | |||||||||
| S11599 | 2025.11.11 | N07W34 | |||||||||
| S11600 | 2025.11.11 | N27W29 | |||||||||
| S11601 | 2025.11.11 | 14 | 6 | S18W20 | 0030 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11602 | 2025.11.11 | 8 | N10E38 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S11603 | 2025.11.12 | S06E37 |
 |
||||||||
| S11604 | 2025.11.12 | N09W02 |
 |
||||||||
| S11605 | 2025.11.12 | 2 | 1 | S13E46 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S11606 | 2025.11.13 | 3 | N07E50 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S11607 | 2025.11.13 | 1 | N04E15 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 34 | 159 | 62 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 104 | 299 | 162 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 70 | 195 | 98 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 114 | 164 | 130 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | (128.5 projected, -4.8) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | (123.8 projected, -4.7) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (120.6 projected, -3.2) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.5 | (117.0 projected, -3.6) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.8 | (113.1 projected, -3.9) | 14.1 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (109.1 projected, -4.0) | 15.9 |
| 2025.11 | 154.3 (1) | 43.5 (2A) / 100.3 (2B) / 125.6 (2C) | (106.8 projected, -2.3) | (31.7) | |
| 2025.12 | (105.3 projected, -1.5) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (101.2 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (97.1 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (92.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (89.0 projected, -3.8) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
