The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on November 4 under the influence of effects associated with CH1327. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 385 and 483 km/sec, averaging 424 km/sec (-57 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was slightly above background levels all day and increased to 0.7 pfu at 04:20 UT on November 5. The increase is likely related to the flare activity in AR 14274.
Solar flux density measured at 22h UT on 2.8 GHz was 151.6 - increasing 29.9 over the previous solar rotation. Flux measurements at 18, 20 and 22h UT were all flare enhanced, with the measurement at 22h least influenced.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 160.72 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 150.3 (41 days ago, this is 51.3% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 9.0). Three hour interval K indices: 33232222 (planetary), 22243421 (Boulder), 53322334 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 6 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 148) and in 5 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 105) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14272 [N21E37] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14273 [S12E02] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.9 @ 11:14 UT
AR 14274 [N24E54] is a very compact spot group with most spots in a
single, huge penumbra. The northern part of this penumbra has a large
magnetic delta configuration. Further major flares are likely. C1 flares:
C1.8 @ 05:11, C1.9 @ 06:36, C1.5 @ 07:02, C1.4 @ 07:55, C1.3 @ 09:31, C1.6 @
13:52, C1.8 @ 15:38 UT
AR 14275 [N07E58] gained tiny spots and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.4 @ 10:46 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S11573 [S10W35] reemerged with tiny spots.
New AR S11580 [N18E23] emerged with a tiny spot.
An active region behind the southeast limb produced an X1 flare late in the day and could rotate into view on November 5.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C8.8 | 00:15 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.4 | 01:08 | 14272 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.8 | 01:19 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.5 | 01:29 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| M3.5 | 01:48 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.8 | 02:43 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 03:17 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 03:56 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 04:16 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 04:32 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.4 | 05:28 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 06:19 | behind southeast limb | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 09:02 | 14275 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14274 | |
| C4.6 | 10:13 | northwest limb | 14267 | GOES18 | |
| C2.4 | 11:48 | N24E62 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C2.9 | 12:01 | 14274 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare behind the southeast limb | |
| C2.0 | 12:24 | behind southeast limb | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 12:40 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 14:21 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 16:15 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.5 | 16:47 | 14274 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare behind the southeast limb | |
| C3.0 | 17:04 | 14274 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare behind the southeast limb | |
| X1.8/1B | 17:34 | N26E63 | 14274 | GOES18 | CME, weak type IV radio sweep |
| C3.8 | 19:49 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C9.3 | 20:19 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| X1.1 | 22:01 | behind southeast limb | GOES18 | weak type IV radio sweep | |
| M1.7 | 22:44 | 14272 | GOES18 |
November 2: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
November 3: An asymmetric full halo CME was observed after the major
M5.0 flare in AR 14274. While the main components of the ejecta are not
headed towards Earth, some effects are likely on November 6 (maybe as early
as late on November 5).
November 4: An asymmetric full halo CME (most easily seen in
GOES-19/CCOR-1 imagery) was observed after the major
X1.8 flare in AR 14274. The main part of the ejecta is not headed
towards Earth, however, shock effects are possible on November 6-7.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent negative polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1328) will rotate across the central meridian on November 3-6.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on November 5. November 6-9 could see unsettled to major storm levels due to effects from CH1328 and the November 3 and 4 CMEs.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14267 | 2025.10.22 2025.10.23 |
1 | N01W91 | 0040 | HSX |
 |
was AR S11549 rotated out of view |
||||
| S11555 | 2025.10.25 | N12W44 | |||||||||
| S11562 | 2025.10.27 | S16W57 | |||||||||
| S11563 | 2025.10.27 | S02W39 | |||||||||
| 14271 | 2025.10.28 2025.10.30 |
S09W16 |
 |
was AR S11567 location: S09W09 |
|||||||
| S11573 | 2025.10.30 | 2 | S10W35 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| 14272 | 2025.11.01 2025.11.01 |
2 | 3 | 2 | N22E36 | 0070 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11574 area: 0110 location: N21E37 |
| 14274 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
18 | 38 | 25 | N24E53 | 0300 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
was AR S11575 beta-gamma-delta area: 0660 location: N24E54 |
| 14273 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.02 |
12 | 27 | 16 | S12W01 | 0100 | DSI | DAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11576 area: 0170 location: S12E02 |
| 14275 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
8 | 17 | 11 | N07E61 | 0200 | DAO | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11577 location: N07E58 area: 0260 |
| S11578 | 2025.11.03 | S02W04 |
 |
||||||||
| S11580 | 2025.11.04 | 1 | 1 | N28W23 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 41 | 88 | 55 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 91 | 148 | 105 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 71 | 113 | 80 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 100 | 81 | 84 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | (128.5 projected, -4.8) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | (123.8 projected, -4.7) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (120.6 projected, -3.2) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.5 | (117.0 projected, -3.6) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.8 | (113.1 projected, -3.9) | 14.1 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (109.1 projected, -4.0) | 15.9 |
| 2025.11 | 130.7 (1) | 8.2 (2A) / 61.3 (2B) / 120.9 (2C) | (106.8 projected, -2.3) | (14.3) | |
| 2025.12 | (105.3 projected, -1.5) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (101.2 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (97.1 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (92.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (89.0 projected, -3.8) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
