The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels on November 3 under the influence of effects associated with CH1327. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 415 and 570 km/sec, averaging 481 km/sec (-74km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to major storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at or near background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was
133.0 -
increasing 11.3
over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 160.96 (183 days ago). The 81 day
average solar flux at 1 AU was 150.0 (41 days ago, this is 51.2% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81
day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of
69 at solar minimum).
SC25 365d peak:
195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 19 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 19.3). Three hour interval K indices: 33443333 (planetary), 23554323 (Boulder), 53434456 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 7 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 151) and in 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 108) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14267 [N01W78] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14271 [S09E04] reemerged with tiny spots.
AR 14272 [N21E49] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14273 [S12E14] gained spots and has polarity intermixing. A minor
M class flare may be possible.
New AR 14274 [N24E67] rotated into view on November 2 and was
numbered the next day by SWPC. The region is compact and complex with a
strong magnetic delta configuration in the northern section. Further major
flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 00:34, C1.3 @ 00:45, C1.1 @ 01:50,
C1.7 @ 15:03, C1.6 @ 15:24, C1.6 @ 16:02, C1.3 @ 16:17, C1.8 @ 16:59, C1.5 @
18:26, C1.4 @ 20:33 UT
New AR 14275 [N06E71] rotated into view on November 2 and received
its NOAA number the next day. The region was mostly quiet and has M class
flare potential.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
New AR S11578 [S02E09] emerged with tiny spots before noon, then
decayed slowly.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.8 | 04:08 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C7.1 | 04:30 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 06:13 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 06:49 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 08:21 | 14274 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14275 | |
| M1.6 | 09:25 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| M5.0 | 10:11 | 14274 | GOES18 | CME, LDE simultaneous flare in AR 14275 |
|
| M1.2 | 11:13 | 14267 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.1 | 11:44 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| M2.9 | 12:35 | 14274 | GOES18 | weak type IV radio sweep | |
| M3.2 | 12:47 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 14:10 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.5 | 17:08 | N26E69 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C2.3 | 17:45 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 17:52 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 18:37 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 21:12 | 14274 | GOES19 | ||
| C2.0 | 21:51 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.5 | 22:28 | N24E65 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C8.7 | 00:08 | 14272 | GOES18 | LDE. Event started at 23:40 UT |
November 1-2: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
November 3: An asymmetric full halo CME was observed after the major
M5.0 flare in AR 14274. While the main components of the ejecta are not
headed towards Earth, some effects are likely on November 6 (maybe as early
as late on November 5).
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent negative polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1328) will rotate across the central meridian on November 3-5.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on November 4 due to lingering effects associated with CH1327. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on November 5. November 6-8 could see unsettled to minor storm levels due to effects from CH1328 and the November 3 CME.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14267 | 2025.10.22 2025.10.23 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N01W79 | 0090 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11549 area: 0200 location: N01W78 |
| 14269 | 2025.10.24 2025.10.25 |
S12W83 |
was AR S11554 location: S11W79 |
||||||||
| S11555 | 2025.10.25 | N12W31 |
 |
||||||||
| S11562 | 2025.10.27 | S16W42 |
 |
||||||||
| S11563 | 2025.10.27 | S02W26 | |||||||||
| S11566 | 2025.10.28 | N05W56 | |||||||||
| 14271 | 2025.10.28 2025.10.30 |
2 | S09W02 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
was AR S11567 location: S09E04 |
||||
| S11568 | 2025.10.29 | N28W52 | |||||||||
| S11571 | 2025.10.30 | N19W53 | |||||||||
| S11572 | 2025.10.30 | S15W57 | |||||||||
| S11573 | 2025.10.30 | S18W20 |
 |
||||||||
| 14272 | 2025.11.01 2025.11.01 |
4 | 4 | 2 | N23E48 | 0090 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11574 location: N21E49 |
| 14274 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
10 | 32 | 18 | N24E63 | 0260 | EKC | DKC |
 |
 |
was AR S11575 beta-delta area: 0600 location: N24E67 |
| 14273 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.02 |
18 | 36 | 23 | S12E11 | 0110 | DSI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11576 area: 0230 location: S12E14 |
| 14275 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
4 | 5 | 3 | N07E75 | 0180 | CAO | DAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11577 location: N06E71 area: 0250 |
| S11578 | 2025.11.03 | 1 | 1 | S02E09 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 37 | 81 | 48 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 87 | 151 | 108 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 67 | 111 | 78 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 96 | 83 | 86 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | (128.5 projected, -4.8) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | (123.8 projected, -4.7) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (120.6 projected, -3.2) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.5 | (117.0 projected, -3.6) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.8 | (113.1 projected, -3.9) | 14.1 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (109.1 projected, -4.0) | 15.9 |
| 2025.11 | 123.8 (1) | 5.1 (2A) / 51.3 (2B) / 125.0 (2C) | (106.8 projected, -2.3) | (16.1) | |
| 2025.12 | (105.3 projected, -1.5) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (101.2 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (97.1 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (92.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (89.0 projected, -3.8) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
