The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels on March 21 due to CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 385 and 614 km/sec, averaging 447 km/sec (+25 km/sec compared to the previous day). Solar wind density (both max and average for the day) at SOHO was among the highest observed. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux peaked at 1.0 pfu at 19:10. A solar wind shock was observed at 01:39 UT. Initially the effects were mild. The total field (IMF) increased gradually after 10h UT, reaching a peak of 40 nT at 17:51 UT. After this peak the phi angle has been consistently in a negative (towards) sector. It is uncertain if CIR effects associated with CH1277 mixed in with the CME resulting in a somewhat unusual development of the disturbance.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 165.3 - decreasing 44.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 194.73. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50 while SC23 peaked on February 23, 2002 at 198.15. Current SC25 peak: 194.78 on September 18, 2024 (subtracting a baseline solar flux level of 65, this is +61.22% compared to the SC24 peak and -2.53% compared to the SC23 peak). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 22 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 22.0). Three hour interval K indices: 33223455 (planetary), 33224444 (Boulder), 44123346 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 18).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 21 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 372) and in 19 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 271) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14021 [S04W75] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14025 [N09W81] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.4 @ 15:09 UT
AR 14026 [S19W68] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14028 [S16W37] decayed and lost all mature penumbra.
AR 14030 [S17W23] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14031 [N16W65] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.4 @ 00:59, C1.3 @ 04:56, C1.4 @ 05:47 UT
AR 14033 [N27W15] was quiet and stable.
AR 14035 [N15E18] decayed nearly losing all mature penumbra.
New AR 14036 [N08W23] emerged on March 20 and was numbered by SWPC
the next day as the region developed quickly.
New AR 14037 [N19W19] emerged on March 19 with SWPC numbering the
region 2 days later.
New AR 14038 [S14E59] rotated into view on March 20 and received its
NOAA number the next day.
New AR 14039 [N06E68] rotated into view on March 20 and was numbered
by SWPC the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10899 [S11W08] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
S10904 [N10W33] was quiet and stable.
S10905 [N17W06] was quiet and stable.
S10906 [S18E24] was quiet and stable.
S10910 [N17E37] was quiet and stable.
New region S10915 [S09E77] rotated into view with small spots. C1
flares: C1.4 @ 20:25 UT
New region S10916 [N18E78] rotated into view with a small spot.
New region S10917 [S19W01] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S10918 [S19E09] emerged with tiny spots.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.1 | 11:08 | S10899 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 11:26 | 14031 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2/1N | 15:57 | 14028 | GOES16 | weak type II radio sweep | |
| C2.2 | 22:36 | S10915 | GOES16 |
March 19-20: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
March 21: A faint full halo CME was observed after an eruption to the
north of AR S10899 (possibly triggered by the M1 flare in AR 14028). The CME could reach Earth on March 24.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1277) rotated across the central meridian on March 19-20. A southern hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole (CH1278) will likel rotate into an Earth facing position on March 23-24.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to major storm on March 22 due to CME effects at first, then effects from CH1277. Quiet to active is likely on March 23. If the March 21 CME reaches Earth unsettled to minor storm levels will be likely on March 24.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14021 | 2025.03.09 2025.03.10 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S05W77 | 0090 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S10876 area: 0200 location: S04W75 |
| 14023 | 2025.03.10 2025.03.11 |
N25W72 |
was AR S10879 location: N25W69 |
||||||||
| 14031 | 2025.03.10 2025.03.15 |
5 | 9 | 5 | N16W66 | 0120 | CAO | DAO |
 |
 |
was AR S10880 area: 0230 location: N16W65 |
| 14026 | 2025.03.11 2025.03.12 |
6 | 2 | 1 | S20W68 | 0030 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S10882 location: S19W68 area: 0010 |
| 14025 | 2025.03.11 2025.03.12 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N09W77 | 0120 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S10884 location: N09W81 area: 0220 |
| 14029 | 2025.03.12 2025.03.15 |
S15W50 |
was AR S10888 location: S14W44 |
||||||||
| 14028 | 2025.03.12 2025.03.12 |
10 | 34 | 15 | S16W38 | 0080 | CAI | CRI |
 |
 |
location: S16W37 |
| S10893 | 2025.03.13 | N07W48 |
 |
||||||||
| 14030 | 2025.03.13 2025.03.15 |
1 | 5 | 2 | S18W25 | 0110 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S10894 area: 0120 location: S17W23 |
| 14033 | 2025.03.14 2025.03.15 |
2 | 9 | 5 | N19W19 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S10895 location: N27W15 area: 0030 SWPC location probably a typo, exactly the same location as AR 14037 |
| 14032 | 2025.03.14 2025.03.15 |
N28W48 |
was AR S10896 location: N28W42 |
||||||||
| S10897 | 2025.03.15 | S18W51 | |||||||||
| S10898 | 2025.03.15 | N18W37 |
 |
||||||||
| 14034 | 2025.03.16 | 4 | S12W09 | 0020 | CRO | this was first the trailing spots of AR 14030, then on 2025.03.17 SWPC moved the group number to the spots of AR S10899 | |||||
| S10899 | 2025.03.16 | 18 | 7 | S12E04 | 0030 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10900 | 2025.03.16 | S25W37 | |||||||||
| 14035 | 2025.03.17 2025.03.18 |
6 | 15 | 6 | N15E18 | 0080 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
was AR S10901 |
| S10903 | 2025.03.17 | N12W21 | |||||||||
| S10904 | 2025.03.17 | 4 | 1 | N10W33 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10905 | 2025.03.18 | 1 | N17W06 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S10906 | 2025.03.18 | 4 | 1 | S18E24 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10907 | 2025.03.18 | S05E03 | |||||||||
| 14037 | 2025.03.19 | 2 | 10 | 6 | N19W19 | 0010 | AXX | DRO |
 |
 |
was AR S10909 location: N18W18 area: 0050 |
| S10910 | 2025.03.19 | 3 | 1 | N17E37 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S10911 | 2025.03.19 | S30W39 | |||||||||
| 14038 | 2025.03.20 2025.03.21 |
2 | 2 | 2 | S15E60 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S10912 location: S14E59 |
| 14036 | 2025.03.20 2025.03.21 |
4 | 25 | 17 | N06W24 | 0020 | DRO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S10913 location: N08W23 area: 0170 |
| 14039 | 2025.03.20 2025.03.21 |
4 | 6 | 4 | N09E70 | 0030 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S10914 location: N07E68 |
| S10915 | 2025.03.21 | 4 | 2 | S09E27 | 0040 | CAO |
 |
||||
| S10916 | 2025.03.21 | 1 | 1 | N18E78 | 0020 | HRX |
 |
||||
| S10917 | 2025.03.21 | 6 | 3 | S19W01 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10918 | 2025.03.21 | 2 | S19E09 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 48 | 162 | 81 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 178 | 372 | 271 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 90 | 215 | 134 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 195 | 205 | 217 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.9 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 107.1 | 127.9 (+3.1) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 113.5 | 129.5 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.2 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.7 (+3.6) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 154.9 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.7 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | (159.5 projected, +2.8) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 166.4 | (160.6 projected, +1.1) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 152.5 | (158.0 projected, -2.6) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.5 | (154.2 projected, -3.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | (148.7 projected, -5.5) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 154.7 | (140.2 projected, -8.5) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 164.4 (1) | 95.0 (2A) / 140.3 (2B) / 174.8 (2C) ISN average: 148 |
(133.8 projected, -6.4) | (15.2) | |
| 2025.04 | (129.2 projected, -4.6) | ||||
| 2025.05 | (123.9 projected, -5.3) | ||||
| 2025.06 | (119.0 projected, -4.9) | ||||
| 2025.07 | (114.9 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2025.08 | (110.2 projected, -4.7) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a slowly decreasing trend since September 2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy). Currently all 365 days smoothed indices are still indicating that a peak occurred on October 12 or 13, 2024. Should sunspot activity decrease even further then there is a possibility that the peak may have taken place in September 2024. Any peak outside of September-October 2024 appears unlikely. The 365 days average solar flux is likely to max out ~2% below the peak of solar cycle 23. The maximum 365d smoothed solar flux of SC23 and SC25 are similar, however, sunspot numbers were significantly lower during SC25 compared to SC23.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
