The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on March 17 under the influence of effects from CH1276. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 403 and 450 km/sec, averaging 416 km/sec (-44km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Solar flux density measured at 17h UT on 2.8 GHz was 187.6 - increasing 9.7 over the previous solar rotation. The measurement at 20h UT was flare enhanced. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 194.71. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50 while SC23 peaked on February 23, 2002 at 198.15. Current SC25 peak: 194.71 on September 16, 2024 (subtracting a baseline solar flux level of 65, this is +61.14% compared to the SC24 peak and -2.58% compared to the SC23 peak). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.9). Three hour interval K indices: 33323333 (planetary), 33323333 (Boulder), 53424565 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 18).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 22 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 504) and in 19 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 321) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14018 [S20W79] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14019 [N04W64] was the source of several C flares and has weak
polarity intermixing.
AR 14020 [N19W39] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.6 @ 18:56 UT
AR 14021 [S06W22] has polarity intermixing and was mostly quiet. C1
flares: C1.6 @ 02:17, C1.9 @ 07:34, C1.8 @ 12:31, C1.7 @ 17:23 UT
AR 14022 [N04W38] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14023 [N26W17] was quiet and stable.
AR 14025 [N09W24] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 14026 [S21W13] was quiet and stable.
AR 14028 [S17E17] produced several C flares and has polarity
intermixing.
M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 04:44, C1.9 @ 04:57 UT
AR 14029 [S14E08] was quiet and stable.
AR 14030 [S17E28] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14031 [N16W09] developed further and could produce a minor M class
flare. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 09:45, C1.6 @ 12:45, C1.6 @ 13:11, C1.7 @ 14:07 UT
AR 14032 [N28E11] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14033 [N25E37] displayed few changes and was
the source of the largest flares of the day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10883 [S15W32] was quiet and stable.
S10893 [N11E07] was quiet and stable.
S10898 [N18E17] was quiet and stable.
S10899 [S13E44] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
New region S10901 [N14E72] rotated into view with small spots.
New region S10902 [N09W32] emerged with several spots between ARs
14022 and 14025.
New region S10903 [N12E32] emerged with reversed polarities.
New region S10904 [N09E24] was observed with tiny spots in an
old plage area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.4 | 05:29 | 14028 | GOES18 | ||
| C7.8/1F | 05:42 | S18E31 | 14028 | GOES18 | |
| C2.4 | 06:46 | 14030 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 08:17 | N03W54 | 14019 | GOES16 | |
| C2.1 | 10:59 | N13W31 | 14020 | GOES16 | |
| C2.7 | 14:30 | S20E26 | 14028 | GOES16 | |
| C6.6/1F | 16:04 | N06W57 | 14019 | GOES16 | |
| C5.3 | 16:18 | 14019 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 18:19 | spotless plage near southeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| C9.8/1F | 19:19 | N28E43 | 14033 | GOES16 | |
| M1.0 | 19:33 | 14033 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 22:26 | S10901 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 22:45 | S12E45 (SDO/AIA) | S10899 | GOES16 |
March 15-17: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A southern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1276) was Earth facing on March 13. A trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1277) will likely rotate across the central meridian on March 19.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on March 18 due to effects associated with CH1276. Quiet levels are likely on March 19-20.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14018 | 2025.03.05 2025.03.05 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S19W78 | 0050 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0110 location: S20W79 |
| 14019 | 2025.03.06 2025.03.07 |
6 | 10 | 8 | N06W65 | 0040 | CAO | DAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S10866 area: 0080 location: N04W64 |
| 14020 | 2025.03.08 2025.03.09 |
1 | 7 | 4 | N19W42 | 0020 | HAX | HAX |
 |
 |
was AR S10870 location: N19W39 area: 0070 |
| 14021 | 2025.03.09 2025.03.10 |
7 | 29 | 14 | S06W24 | 0120 | CSO | DHI |
 |
 |
was AR S10876 area: 0320 location: S06W22 |
| 14023 | 2025.03.10 2025.03.11 |
1 | 6 | 3 | N25W19 | 0010 | AXX | HRX |
 |
 |
was AR S10879 location: N26W17 |
| 14031 | 2025.03.10 2025.03.15 |
12 | 47 | 21 | N15W10 | 0060 | DAI | EAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S10880 area: 0250 location: N16W09 |
| 14022 | 2025.03.10 2025.03.11 |
6 | 13 | 9 | N06W38 | 0030 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
was AR S10881 area: 0090 location: N04W38 |
| 14026 | 2025.03.11 2025.03.12 |
7 | 3 | S19W19 | 0015 | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S10882 location: S21W13 |
||
| S10883 | 2025.03.11 | 7 | 2 | S15W32 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 14025 | 2025.03.11 2025.03.12 |
12 | 27 | 16 | N11W26 | 0090 | DSI | DAI |
 |
 |
was AR S10884 location: N09W24 area: 0420 |
| S10887 | 2025.03.12 | S04W52 |
 |
||||||||
| 14029 | 2025.03.12 2025.03.15 |
9 | 2 | S15E06 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S10888 location: S15E07 |
||
| 14028 | 2025.03.12 2025.03.12 |
17 | 49 | 20 | S18E16 | 0100 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0260 location: S17E17 |
| S10889 | 2025.03.13 | N06W31 | |||||||||
| S10890 | 2025.03.13 | N04W13 | |||||||||
| S10893 | 2025.03.13 | 7 | N07E15 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 14030 | 2025.03.13 2025.03.15 |
1 | 17 | 3 | S17E26 | 0070 | HSX | ESO |
 |
 |
was AR S10894 area: 0210 SWPC has for non obvious reasons split off the trailing spots into AR 14034 location: S17E28 |
| 14033 | 2025.03.14 2025.03.15 |
2 | 6 | 4 | N24E37 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S10895 location: N25E37 |
| 14032 | 2025.03.14 2025.03.15 |
3 | N28E08 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S10896 location: N28E11 |
|||
| S10897 | 2025.03.15 | S18E01 |
 |
||||||||
| S10898 | 2025.03.15 | 4 | 3 | N18E17 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 14034 | 2025.03.16 | 3 | S14E46 | 0010 | CRO | was the trailing spots of AR 14030, then om 2025.03.17 SWPC moved the group to the spots of AR S10899 | |||||
| S10899 | 2025.03.16 | 12 | 6 | S13E44 | 0050 | DRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10900 | 2025.03.16 | S25E18 |
 |
||||||||
| S10901 | 2025.03.17 | 3 | 3 | N14E72 | 0050 | DRO |
 |
||||
| S10902 | 2025.03.17 | 11 | 8 | N09W32 | 0070 | DRO |
 |
||||
| S10903 | 2025.03.17 | 2 | 1 | N12E32 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10904 | 2025.03.17 | 7 | N09E24 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 69 | 284 | 131 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 189 | 504 | 321 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 117 | 346 | 193 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 208 | 277 | 257 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.9 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 107.1 | 127.9 (+3.1) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 113.5 | 129.5 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.2 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.7 (+3.6) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 154.9 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.7 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | (159.5 projected, +2.8) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 166.4 | (160.6 projected, +1.1) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 152.5 | (158.0 projected, -2.6) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.5 | (154.2 projected, -3.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | (148.7 projected, -5.5) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 154.7 | (140.2 projected, -8.5) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 162.0 (1) | 73.2 (2A) / 133.4 (2B) / 174.1 (2C) | (133.8 projected, -6.4) | (15.3) | |
| 2025.04 | (129.2 projected, -4.6) | ||||
| 2025.05 | (123.9 projected, -5.3) | ||||
| 2025.06 | (119.0 projected, -4.9) | ||||
| 2025.07 | (114.9 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2025.08 | (110.2 projected, -4.7) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a slowly decreasing trend since September 2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy). Currently all 365 days smoothed indices are still indicating that a peak occurred on October 12 or 13, 2024. Should sunspot activity decrease even further then there is a possibility that the peak may have taken place in September 2024. Any peak outside of September-October 2024 appears unlikely. The 365 days average solar flux is likely to max out ~2% below the peak of solar cycle 23. The maximum 365d smoothed solar flux of SC23 and SC25 are similar, however, sunspot numbers were significantly lower during SC25 compared to SC23.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
