The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels on March 8 due to effects from CH1274. The phi angle was consistently in a negative (towards) sector after 03:30 UT at ACE. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 380 and 640 km/sec, averaging 463 km/sec (+86 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to severe storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 147.5 - decreasing 11.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 193.83. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50 while SC23 peaked on February 23, 2002 at 198.15. Current SC25 peak: 193.83 on September 7, 2024 (subtracting a baseline solar flux level of 65, this is +60.04% compared to the SC24 peak and -3.25% compared to the SC23 peak). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 20 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 19.9). Three hour interval K indices: 23332355 (planetary), 22443434 (Boulder), 22232376 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level (GOES 18).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 245) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 143) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14012 [S14W26] still has polarity intermixing in the
intermediate spot
section and produced a few low level C flares. The spot group decayed slowly
losing area and spots. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 04:57, C1.8 @ 08:14, C1.9 @ 12:25,
C1.7 @ 15:04, C1.2 @ 16:15, C1.9 @ 20:52 UT
AR 14016 [S25W03] decayed slowly and quietly losing the magnetic
delta.
AR 14017 [S04E18] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14018 [S20E39] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14019 [N07E57] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.0 @
02:56, C1.1 @ 03:51, C1.1 @ 04:04 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10863 [N08E17] was quiet and stable.
S10867 [N23W59] decayed slowly and quietly.
S10868 [N04W45] was quiet and stable.
New region S10869 [S23W44] emerged before noon, then decayed
slowly.
New region S10870 [N19E77] rotated into view
with a mature spot.
New region S10871 [N11E36] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S10872 [S14W02] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S10873 [N01E23] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New region S10874 [S08E46] emerged with a tiny spot.
AR S10850 produced a C1.8 flare at 15:10 and a C1.2 flare at 17:27 UT just before becoming spotless. A C1.3 flare at 06:48 UT had its source behind the southwest limb.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.1 | 08:58 | 14012 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 14:17 | 14012 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.9 | 18:25 | behind southeast limb | GOES16 | LDE |
March 6-8: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1274) was Earth facing on March 5-7. A recurrent southern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1275) will rotate across the central meridian on March 9-10.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on March 9 and quiet to active levels on March 10-11 due to effects from CH1274. Effects from CH1275 could cause quiet to active levels on March 12-14.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14014 | 2025.02.25 2025.03.03 |
N17W88 |
was AR S10830 location: N17W85 |
||||||||
| 14010 | 2025.02.26 2025.02.28 |
N25W77 |
was AR S10832 location: N27W69 |
||||||||
| S10841 | 2025.02.28 | S04W54 | |||||||||
| 14011 | 2025.03.01 2025.03.02 |
5 | S14W35 | 0010 | BXO |
was AR S10846 location: S21W29 spotless the SWPC location of this AR was at S19E04 on 2025.03.05, then SWPC moved the AR to the location of AR S10850 |
|||||
| 14012 | 2025.03.01 2025.03.02 |
27 | 49 | 29 | S14W22 | 0220 | EAI | FAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S10847 location: S14W26 area: 0580 |
| 14013 | 2025.03.01 2025.03.02 |
S04W28 | was AR S10848 | ||||||||
| S10849 | 2025.03.01 | N15W57 | |||||||||
| S10850 | 2025.03.01 | S16W34 |
 |
||||||||
| S10851 | 2025.03.01 | N15W56 | |||||||||
| S10854 | 2025.03.02 | S09W37 | |||||||||
| 14015 | 2025.03.03 2025.03.04 |
N27W86 |
was AR S10856 location: N27W83 |
||||||||
| S10857 | 2025.03.03 | N23W48 | |||||||||
| 14016 | 2025.03.03 2025.03.04 |
4 | 13 | 6 | S25W04 | 0030 | CAO | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S10858 location: S25W03 area: 0040 |
| S10859 | 2025.03.03 | S34W50 | |||||||||
| 14017 | 2025.03.04 2025.03.05 |
2 | S05E17 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S10860 location: S04E18 |
|||
| S10862 | 2025.03.04 | N23W30 | |||||||||
| S10863 | 2025.03.04 | 2 | N08E17 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 14018 | 2025.03.05 2025.03.05 |
3 | 14 | 8 | S20E39 | 0120 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
location: S20E39 area: 0250 |
| S10865 | 2025.03.06 | S06W16 | |||||||||
| 14019 | 2025.03.06 2025.03.07 |
1 | 4 | 2 | N07E58 | 0070 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S10866 area: 0250 |
| S10867 | 2025.03.07 | 2 | N23W59 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S10868 | 2025.03.07 | 4 | 1 | N04W45 | 0010 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10869 | 2025.03.08 | 2 | S23W44 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S10870 | 2025.03.08 | 1 | 1 | N19E77 | 0120 | HSX |
 |
||||
| S10871 | 2025.03.08 | 4 | 4 | N11E36 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10872 | 2025.03.08 | 2 | 1 | S14W02 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10873 | 2025.03.08 | 5 | 1 | N01E23 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10874 | 2025.03.08 | 1 | S08E46 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 40 | 105 | 53 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 90 | 245 | 143 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 60 | 131 | 79 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 99 | 135 | 114 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.9 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 107.1 | 127.9 (+3.1) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 113.5 | 129.5 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.2 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.7 (+3.6) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 154.9 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.7 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | (159.5 projected, +2.8) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 166.4 | (160.6 projected, +1.1) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 152.5 | (158.0 projected, -2.6) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.5 | (154.2 projected, -3.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | (148.7 projected, -5.5) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 154.7 | (140.2 projected, -8.5) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 153.5 (1) | 31.0 (2A) / 120.3 (2B) / 168.9 (2C) | (133.8 projected, -6.4) | (10.3) | |
| 2025.04 | (129.2 projected, -4.6) | ||||
| 2025.05 | (123.9 projected, -5.3) | ||||
| 2025.06 | (119.0 projected, -4.9) | ||||
| 2025.07 | (114.9 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2025.08 | (110.2 projected, -4.7) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a slowly decreasing trend since September 2024 (using the mean solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy). The 365 days average ISN has a peak on July 8, 2024, but is still expected to peak in October 2024 due to low sunspot numbers in March and the first half of April 2024. Unless there is an uptick in sunspot activity over the next couple of months, the 365 days average solar flux is likely to peak 1-2% below the peak of solar cycle 23. While the 365d average solar flux peaks of SC23 and SC25 are similar, sunspot numbers will peak significantly lower for SC25 compared to SC23.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
