The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on March 7. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 370 and 408 km/sec, averaging 387 km/sec (-12 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 146.5 - decreasing 16.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 193.78. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50 while SC23 peaked on February 23, 2002 at 198.15. Current SC25 peak: 193.78 on September 6, 2024 (subtracting a baseline solar flux level of 65, this is +59.97% compared to the SC24 peak and -3.28% compared to the SC23 peak). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.8). Three hour interval K indices: 13232321 (planetary), 02233321 (Boulder), 13223443 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level (GOES 18).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 227) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 144) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14009 [N13W76] decayed slowly and quietly.
C1 flares: C1.4 @ 20:48 UT
AR 14011 [S21W16] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14012 [S13W11] has polarity intermixing in the
intermediate spot
section and has M class flare potential. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 09:35, C1.6 @
10:05, C1.3 @ 16:20, C1.1 @ 20:31 UT
AR 14016 [S25E09] still has many tiny and small spots within a relative
small area and a small magnetic delta. Another minor M class flare is
possible.
AR 14017 [S05E34] was quiet and stable.
AR 14018 [S20E52] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.7 @
00:13, C1.2 @ 06:57, C1.5 @ 10:29 UT
New AR 14019 [N07E70] rotated into view on March 6 and was numbered
by SWPC the next day. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 11:17 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10833 [N07W50] decayed slowly and quietly.
S10850 [S16W21] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC has moved AR
14011 to this spot group. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 04:37 UT
S10863 [N11E32] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 02:38
UT
New region S10867 [N23W45] emerged with tiny
spots.
New region S10868 [N07W33] emerged with a tiny spot.
AR 14004 produced a C1.0 flare while at the southwest limb at 05:56 UT. A C1.7 event behind the northwest limb was observed peaking at 17:29 UT. A C1.4 flare was recorded at 20:48 UT near the northwest limb.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| M1.6 | 21:00 | S26E09 | 14016 | GOES16 | |
| C8.0 | 21:19 | 14016 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 21:48 | 14012 | GOES16 |
March 5-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1274) was Earth facing on March 5-7. A recurrent southern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1275) will rotate across the central meridian on March 8-9.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on March 8-10 due to effects from CH1274.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14008 | 2025.02.24 2025.02.25 |
N05W77 |
was AR S10824 location: N06W65 |
||||||||
| 14014 | 2025.02.25 2025.03.03 |
N17W74 |
was AR S10830 location: N17W72 |
||||||||
| 14010 | 2025.02.26 2025.02.28 |
N25W63 |
was AR S10832 location: N27W56 |
||||||||
| S10833 | 2025.02.26 | 1 | N07W50 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| 14009 | 2025.02.28 2025.02.28 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N12W76 | 0010 | AXX | AXX |
 |
location: N13W76 |
|
| S10841 | 2025.02.28 | S04W41 | |||||||||
| 14011 | 2025.03.01 2025.03.02 |
5 | 1 | S14W21 | 0010 | BXO | AXX |
 |
was AR S10846 location: S21W16 area: 0006 the SWPC location of this AR was at S19E04 on 2025.03.05, then SWPC moved the AR to the location of AR S10850 |
||
| 14012 | 2025.03.01 2025.03.02 |
20 | 55 | 31 | S13W10 | 0260 | EKI | EKI |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S10847 location: S13W11 area: 0580 |
|
| 14013 | 2025.03.01 2025.03.02 |
S04W14 | was AR S10848 | ||||||||
| S10849 | 2025.03.01 | N15W57 | |||||||||
| S10850 | 2025.03.01 | 11 | 5 | S16W21 | 0030 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S10851 | 2025.03.01 | N15W43 | |||||||||
| S10854 | 2025.03.02 | S09W24 | |||||||||
| S10855 | 2025.03.02 | N00W53 | |||||||||
| 14015 | 2025.03.03 2025.03.04 |
N27W72 |
was AR S10856 location: N27W70 |
||||||||
| S10857 | 2025.03.03 | N23W35 | |||||||||
| 14016 | 2025.03.03 2025.03.04 |
8 | 15 | 7 | S26E09 | 0040 | CAI | DRI |
 |
beta-delta was AR S10858 location: S25E09 area: 0090 |
|
| S10859 | 2025.03.03 | S34W37 | |||||||||
| 14017 | 2025.03.04 2025.03.05 |
1 | 4 | 1 | S05E32 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
was AR S10860 location: S05E34 |
|
| S10862 | 2025.03.04 | N23W17 | |||||||||
| S10863 | 2025.03.04 | 1 | 1 | N11E32 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| 14018 | 2025.03.05 2025.03.05 |
3 | 10 | 5 | S21E52 | 0120 | CAO | CAO |
 |
location: S20E52 area: 0200 |
|
| S10864 | 2025.03.05 | S19W51 | |||||||||
| S10865 | 2025.03.06 | S06W03 | |||||||||
| 14019 | 2025.03.06 2025.03.07 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N07E70 | 0030 | HSX | CSO |
 |
was AR S10866 area: 0220 |
|
| S10867 | 2025.03.07 | 5 | 2 | N23W45 | 0010 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S10868 | 2025.03.07 | 1 | N07W33 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 39 | 107 | 54 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 109 | 227 | 144 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 64 | 136 | 83 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 120 | 125 | 115 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.9 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 107.1 | 127.9 (+3.1) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 113.5 | 129.5 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.2 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.7 (+3.6) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 154.9 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.7 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | (159.5 projected, +2.8) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 166.4 | (160.6 projected, +1.1) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 152.5 | (158.0 projected, -2.6) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.5 | (154.2 projected, -3.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | (148.7 projected, -5.5) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 154.7 | (140.2 projected, -8.5) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 154.3 (1) | 28.1 (2A) / 124.6 (2B) / 169.1 (2C) | (133.8 projected, -6.4) | (8.9) | |
| 2025.04 | (129.2 projected, -4.6) | ||||
| 2025.05 | (123.9 projected, -5.3) | ||||
| 2025.06 | (119.0 projected, -4.9) | ||||
| 2025.07 | (114.9 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2025.08 | (110.2 projected, -4.7) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a slowly decreasing trend since September 2024 (using the mean solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy). The 365 days average ISN has a peak on July 8, 2024, but is still expected to peak in October 2024 due to low sunspot numbers in March and the first half of April 2024. Unless there is an uptick in sunspot activity over the next couple of months, the 365 days average solar flux is likely to peak 1-2% below the peak of solar cycle 23. While the 365d average solar flux peaks of SC23 and SC25 are similar, sunspot numbers will peak significantly lower for SC25 compared to SC23.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
