The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on June 15, weakly under the influence of effects from CH1301. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 426 and 607 km/sec, averaging 495 km/sec (+10 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 160.5 - increasing 43.7 over the previous solar rotation. The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 187.98 (183 days ago). SC25 365d peak: 195.86 on October 13, 2024. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.3). Three hour interval K indices: 21222332 (planetary), 21233322 (Boulder), 42333433 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 265) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 194) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14105 [S16W78] decayed further and rotated
mostly out of view while producing several C and M flares. C1 flares: C1.9 @
09:44 UT
AR 14110 [N05W73] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 14111 [N14W12] gained tiny spots and has polarity
intermixing.
AR 14112 [S09W31] decayed slowly and quietly and could soon become
spotless.
AR 14113 [N10E06] was quiet and stable.
AR 14114 [N18E14] developed further and has multiple magnetic delta
configurations. Further major M or X flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.9 @
02:52 UT
AR 14115 [N20E22] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14116 [S11E12] matured and was mostly quiet.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S11159 [S02E21] reemerged with tiny spots.
S11160 [S14W00] was quiet and stable.
New region S11163 [N22E21] emerged just north of AR 14115 with tiny
spots.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 00:54 | 14110 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 01:16 | 14105 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 01:45 | 14110 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 01:58 | 14105 | GOES18 | ||
| C7.5 | 03:29 | N17E24 | 14114 | GOES18 | partial halo CME |
| C5.1 | 04:03 | 14114 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.5 | 04:35 | 14114 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14105 | |
| C3.2 | 05:24 | 14114 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 06:19 | 14111 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 06:49 | 14114 | GOES18 | ||
| M2.2/1N | 07:56 | S14W67 | 14105 | GOES18 | CME, moderate type II radio sweep |
| C2.4 | 10:11 | 14110 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.9 | 10:47 | 14105 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 12:11 | S12W84 (SDO/AIA) | S11161 | GOES18 | |
| C2.9 | 12:55 | S14W70 | 14105 | GOES18 | |
| C3.3 | 13:12 | 14114 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.0 | 13:16 | 14105 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 13:32 | S11161 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.8 | 13:43 | 14105 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.1 | 14:17 | N18E20 | 14114 | GOES18 | |
| C2.0 | 14:53 | S11161 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 16:55 | 14105 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.5 | 17:09 | N18E19 | 14114 | GOES18 | |
| C4.7 | 17:19 | 14105 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.7 | 17:26 | 14114 | GOES18 | ||
| M8.4/1B | 18:06 | N18E16 | 14114 | GOES18 | partial halo CME, strong type II and weak type IV radio sweeps |
| C7.9 | 19:31 | 14114 | GOES18 | ||
| C9.8 | 19:50 | 14114 | GOES18 | ||
| C7.9 | 20:38 | 14114 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.3 | 21:34 | 14105 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.8 | 21:56 | S11161 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.4 | 22:31 | N18E15 | 14114 | GOES18 | |
| C7.2 | 22:40 | S11161 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.0 | 22:50 | 14114 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.5 | 23:10 | 14114 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.3 | 23:19 | 14114 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.2 | 23:57 | N18E17 | 14114 | GOES18 |
June 13-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
June 15: AR 14114 produced 2 CMEs that may have had Earth directed
components. The first one was associated with a C7.5 flare peaking at 03:29 and the
last one was observed after the major M8 flare at 18:06 UT. Both CMEs were
brightest off the north pole. The latter one was at least a partial halo CME
with faint extensions off east and west limbs. Components from this CME
could reach Earth sometime between late on June 17 and noon on June 18.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A large recurrent polar connected positive polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1301) will be Earth facing on June 11-19.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on June 16-23 due to effects associated with CH1301. If the last of the 2 June CMEs reaches Earth, unsettled to major storm levels will be possible on June 17-18.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14105 | 2025.06.02 2025.06.03 |
9 | 4 | 1 | S14W84 | 0240 | DSO | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S11119 area: 0007 location: S16W78 |
| 14109 | 2025.06.05 2025.06.07 |
2 | S17W76 | 0020 | CAO |
was AR S11131 spotless SWPC spots appear to be the trailing spots of AR 14105 |
|||||
| 14111 | 2025.06.08 2025.06.09 |
4 | 21 | 10 | N15W14 | 0110 | CSO | CAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11139 area: 0160 loction: N14W12 |
| 14110 | 2025.06.08 2025.06.09 |
8 | 21 | 10 | N05W72 | 0180 | DAI | EAI |
 |
 |
was AR S11140 location: N05W73 |
| 14112 | 2025.06.08 | 3 | 2 | S09W33 | 0013 | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S11141 location: S09W31 |
||
| S11148 | 2025.06.10 | N20W49 | |||||||||
| 14113 | 2025.06.10 2025.06.11 |
1 | 4 | 3 | N10E05 | 0030 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11149 location: N10E06 area: 0080 |
| 14114 | 2025.06.10 2025.06.11 |
27 | 65 | 39 | N17E12 | 0380 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S11150 area: 0760 location: N18E14 |
| 14115 | 2025.06.11 2025.06.12 |
4 | 9 | 3 | N21E26 | 0150 | ESO | ESO |
 |
 |
was AR S11151 location: N20E22 area: 0180 |
| S11152 | 2025.06.11 | N15W39 | |||||||||
| S11153 | 2025.06.11 | S34W47 | |||||||||
| S11155 | 2025.06.11 | N04W34 | |||||||||
| 14116 | 2025.06.12 2025.06.14 |
6 | 14 | 8 | S11E12 | 0140 | DSO | DAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11157 location: S11E25 area: 0230 |
| S11158 | 2025.06.12 | S07W09 | |||||||||
| S11159 | 2025.06.13 | 4 | 3 | S02E21 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S11160 | 2025.06.14 | 5 | 1 | S14W00 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11162 | 2025.06.14 | N21E36 |
 |
||||||||
| S11163 | 2025.06.15 | 5 | 4 | N22E21 | 0014 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 61 | 155 | 84 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 141 | 265 | 194 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 106 | 190 | 119 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 155 | 146 | 155 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.2 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.8 (+1.4) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.0 (-3.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | (150.7 projected, -6.3) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | (144.2 projected, -6.5) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 154.6 | (135.6 projected, -8.6) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | (129.2 projected, -6.4) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (124.6 projected, -4.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 79.2 | (119.3 projected, -5.3) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 135.4 (1) | 53.1 (2A) / 106.2 (2B) / 127.3 (2C) | (114.4 projected, -4.9) | (31.0) | |
| 2025.07 | (110.2 projected, -4.2) | ||||
| 2025.08 | (105.5 projected, -4.7) | ||||
| 2025.09 | (101.2 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.10 | (97.3 projected, -3.9) | ||||
| 2025.11 | (95.0 projected, -2.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a slowly decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy). The
decline has become more obvious during the first half of May 2025 with solar
flux on May 12 at its lowest level since April 4, 2024. The solar max phase
of solar cycle 25 was considerably shorter than that of the most recent
solar cycles.
All 365 days smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (STAR 1K 365d peak: 236.1, STAR 2K
365d peak: 364.3, NOAA SN 365d peak: 156.0, ISN 365d peak: 163.6). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
