The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels on July 23 under the influence of effects associated with CH1307. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 489 and 902 km/sec, averaging 637 km/sec (+238 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to major storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 150.1 - increasing 32.8 over the previous solar rotation. The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 181.39 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 136.8 (41 days ago, this is 42.8% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.86 on October 13, 2024. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 27 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 27.0). Three hour interval K indices: 44445344 (planetary), 34334433 (Boulder), 66355446 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 236) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 159) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14142 [N04W80] was quiet and stable.
AR 14147 [N07W34] was quiet and stable.
AR 14149 [N16E14] was mostly quiet and stable.
C1 flares: C1.5 @ 19:02 UT
AR 14150 [S14E14] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.5 @ 13:47, C1.4 @ 14:09, C1.2 @ 23:56 UT
AR 14152 [N09E35] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14153 [S29E44] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.3 @ 00:53, C1.3 @ 01:22 UT
New AR 14154 [S14E58] rotated into view on July 22 and was numbered
the next day by SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S11274 [S14W29] decayed slowly and quietly.
S11276 [N09E51] was quiet and stable.
S11280 [S19E68] was quiet and stable.
New AR S11282 [S09E76] rotated into view with several spots.
New AR S11283 [N09E76] rotated into view with a small spot.
New AR S11284 [S13E28] emerged with tiny spots.
AR 14143 produced several C1 flares from behind the
northwest limb: C1.5 @ 01:36, C1.4 @ 04:24, C1.7 @ 06:04 UT.
A C1.2 flare was recorded at 23:02 UT from an origin behind the southwest
limb.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 02:41 | 14143 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 13:37 | 14150 | GOES18 |
July 21-22: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
July 23: A faint partial halo CME was observed following a filament
eruption in the northwest qudrant near the central meridian and the equator.
The eruption began shortly after 02h and peaked near 05h UT. The CME could
reach Earth on July 26 and cause some unsettled and active intervals.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent negative polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1307) rotated across the central meridian on July 19-21. A negative polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1308) could reach a potentially geoeffective location on July 26-27, however, CH1308 could be too far to the north to cause any geomagnetic disturbance.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on July 24 due to effects associated with CH1307 and quiet to unsettled on July 25. Some unsettled and active intervals are possible on July 26-27 due to CME effects.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14140 | 2025.07.10 2025.07.11 |
S12W89 |
was AR S11242 |
||||||||
| 14142 | 2025.07.13 2025.07.14 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N03W80 | 0040 | HAX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11252 area: 0120 location: N04W80 |
| 14144 | 2025.07.14 2025.07.15 |
S15W47 |
 |
was AR S11255 location: S12W47 |
|||||||
| 14147 | 2025.07.14 2025.07.16 |
2 | N06W44 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11256 location: N07W34 |
|||
| 14145 | 2025.07.14 2025.07.15 |
S24W89 |
was AR S11258 location: S25W82 |
||||||||
| S11260 | 2025.07.15 | S13W45 | |||||||||
| S11262 | 2025.07.16 | N10W59 | |||||||||
| S11263 | 2025.07.17 | N07W14 |
 |
||||||||
| 14150 | 2025.07.18 2025.07.19 |
5 | 16 | 5 | S13E15 | 0070 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11267 location: S14E14 area: 0120 |
| 14149 | 2025.07.18 2025.07.19 |
8 | 32 | 16 | N18E17 | 0260 | EHI | EHI |
 |
 |
was AR S11268 location: N16E14 area: 0430 |
| S11270 | 2025.07.19 | S20E18 | |||||||||
| 14151 | 2025.07.19 2025.07.20 |
N11W63 |
 |
was AR S11271 location: N11E60 |
|||||||
| S11272 | 2025.07.19 | N14W33 | |||||||||
| S11274 | 2025.07.20 | 5 | 1 | S14WE29 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 14152 | 2025.07.20 2025.07.21 |
1 | 5 | 2 | N09E34 | 0010 | AXX | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S11275 location: N09E35 |
| S11276 | 2025.07.21 | 3 | 2 | N09E51 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11277 | 2025.07.21 | S06E47 |
 |
||||||||
| 14153 | 2025.07.22 2025.07.22 |
7 | 18 | 11 | S29E43 | 0080 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
was AR S11278 location: S29E44 area: 0230 |
| 14154 | 2025.07.22 2025.07.23 |
3 | 8 | 3 | S15E62 | 0090 | EAO | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11279 area: 0120 location: S14E58 |
| S11280 | 2025.07.22 | 4 | 2 | S19E68 | 0110 | CSO |
 |
 |
apparently SWPC consider AR S11280 to be part of AR 14154. This despite the leading penumbrae having the same polarity and being separated by 5 degrees latitude and 10 degrees longitude | ||
| S11281 | 2025.07.22 | S25W13 |
 |
||||||||
| S11282 | 2025.07.23 | 9 | 5 | S09E76 | 0100 | CAO |
 |
||||
| S11283 | 2025.07.23 | 1 | 1 | N09E76 | 0050 | HAX |
 |
||||
| S11284 | 2025.07.23 | 2 | S13E28 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 25 | 106 | 49 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 85 | 236 | 159 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 55 | 151 | 94 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 94 | 130 | 127 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.2 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.1 (-3.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.3 (-5.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | (146.1 projected, -5.2) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | (138.3 projected, -7.8) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | (131.9 projected, -6.4) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (127.3 projected, -4.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 79.2 | (122.0 projected, -5.3) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 116.3 | (117.1 projected, -4.9) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 134.4 (1) | 87.1 (2A) / 117.4 (2B) / 141.9 (2C) ISN average: 129.3. At this level the SSN for January 2025 will become 146.5 |
(112.9 projected, -4.2) | (12.8) | |
| 2025.08 | (108.1 projected, -4.8) | ||||
| 2025.09 | (103.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.10 | (99.9 projected, -3.9) | ||||
| 2025.11 | (97.6 projected, -2.3) | ||||
| 2025.12 | (96.0 projected, -1.6) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Compared to the peak of SC25 solar flux has been at a low level in both May
and June 2025. Taking a closer look at the 81 day (3 solar rotations)
average solar flux proxy, its peak was in early September 2024 and had on
May 12 decreased to less than half of the solar cycle flux range.
Subtracting the 81 day average of approximately 69 at solar cycle minimum
from all measurements, the SC25 range is 0 - 158.3.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
