The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels on July 17 under the influence of effects associated with CH1306. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 569 and 867 km/sec, averaging 648 km/sec (+77 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to major storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 156.1 - increasing 26.4 over the previous solar rotation. The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 182.18 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 136.7 (41 days ago, this is 42.8% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.86 on October 13, 2024. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 20 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 20.1). Three hour interval K indices: 44344432 (planetary), 33344322 (Boulder), 66455534 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 303) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 207) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14135 [S08W65] displayed penumbral
disintegration and was quiet
AR 14136 [N20W35] developed further and a magnetic delta
configuration formed. M class
flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 02:59, C1.8 @ 12:14, C1.7 @ 12:34,
C1.5 @ 13:31, C1.6 @ 14:40, C1.4 @ 15:09 UT
AR 14139 [N21W54] decayed slightly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.7 @ 11:36 UT
AR 14140 [S16W08] was quiet and stable.
AR 14142 [N01E09] began to decay and produced several low level C
flares. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 01:13, C1.2 @ 05:51, C1.2 @ 06:24, C1.4 @ 06:48,
C1.4 @ 08:01, C1.4 @ 08:38, C1.6 @ 11:50, C1.4 @ 21:05 UT
AR 14143 [N24W24] developed early in the day, then began to mature
and produced only a few low level C flares. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 01:54, C1.6 @
14:28 UT
AR 14144 [S15E35] was quiet and stable.
AR 14145 [S24W06] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.3 @ 01:20 UT
AR 14147 [N06E42] was quiet and stable.
New AR 14148 [S07W17] emerged on July 15 and was noticed by SWPC on
July 17.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S11261 [S03W67] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 10:38
UT
New AR S11263 [N06E65] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
New AR S11264 [N05W42] emerged with a tiny
spot.
Due to missing imagery some C1 flares were unmatched to any ARs: C1.3 @ 07:15, C1.3 @ 07:41 UT
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C5.9/1F | 09:28 | N19W29 | 14136 | GOES18 | |
| C2.1 | 11:03 | 14142 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.8 | 13:13 | N02E15 | 14142 | GOES18 | |
| C2.4 | 19:53 | N22W34 | 14136 | GOES18 |
July 15-17: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A huge recurrent trans equatorial positive polarity coronal hole (CH1306) was Earth facing on July 8-16. A recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (CH1307) in the northern hemisphere and with a likely trans equatorial extension, will likely rotate across the central meridian on July 19-21.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on July 18-19 due to lingering effects from CH1306. Quiet leves are likely on July 20-21 becoming unsettled to minor storm on July 22-23 due to effects associated with CH1307.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14135 | 2025.07.06 2025.07.07 |
1 | 7 | 5 | S08W65 | 0040 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11226 area: 0050 |
| 14136 | 2025.07.08 2025.07.09 |
10 | 27 | 15 | N21W37 | 0280 | DKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11232 location: N20W35 area: 0680 |
| S11236 | 2025.07.09 | N11W57 | |||||||||
| S11237 | 2025.07.09 | S04W37 |
 |
||||||||
| 14140 | 2025.07.10 2025.07.11 |
4 | 16 | 6 | S17W06 | 0020 | BXI | CRO |
 |
|
was AR S11242 location: S16W08 area: 0030 |
| 14139 | 2025.07.11 2025.07.11 |
12 | 19 | 9 | N22W55 | 0260 | DKO | DKO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11243 area: 0490 location: N21W54 |
| S11247 | 2025.07.12 | N28W34 |
 |
||||||||
| S11251 | 2025.07.13 | S09W28 | |||||||||
| 14142 | 2025.07.13 2025.07.14 |
15 | 33 | 23 | N01E08 | 0180 | DAI | EAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11252 area: 0330 location: N01E09 |
| 14143 | 2025.07.14 2025.07.14 |
13 | 31 | 21 | N25W25 | 0260 | DAI | EKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11254 area: 0570 location: N24W24 |
| 14144 | 2025.07.14 2025.07.15 |
1 | 5 | 1 | S15E38 | 0040 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11255 area: 0060 location: S15E35 |
| 14147 | 2025.07.14 2025.07.16 |
1 | 3 | 1 | N06E41 | 0020 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11256 location: N06E42 |
| S11257 | 2025.07.14 | N08W35 | |||||||||
| 14145 | 2025.07.14 2025.07.15 |
6 | 13 | 7 | S23W06 | 0030 | CRO | CRI |
 |
 |
was AR S11258 location: S24W06 area: 0040 |
| 14148 | 2025.07.15 2025.07.17 |
4 | 16 | 8 | S07W16 | 0040 | CAO | DRI |
 |
 |
was AR S11259 location: S16W08 |
| S11260 | 2025.07.15 | S13E46 | |||||||||
| 14146 | 2025.07.16 | 1 | N19W46 | 0010 | AXX | apparently a misinterpretation by SWPC. Split off the leader spot of AR 14136 on 2025.07.16. Currently there is no reason to do that and this causes the spot number to be inflated by 10. | |||||
| S11261 | 2025.07.16 | 1 | S03W67 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S11262 | 2025.07.16 | N10E19 |
 |
||||||||
| S11263 | 2025.07.17 | 1 | N06E65 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S11264 | 2025.07.17 | 1 | 1 | N05W42 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 68 | 173 | 97 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 178 | 303 | 207 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 121 | 230 | 154 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 196 | 167 | 166 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.2 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.1 (-3.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.3 (-5.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | (146.1 projected, -5.2) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | (138.3 projected, -7.8) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | (131.9 projected, -6.4) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (127.3 projected, -4.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 79.2 | (122.0 projected, -5.3) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 116.3 | (117.1 projected, -4.9) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 129.1 (1) | 62.5 (2A) / 114.1 (2B) / 133.9 (2C) | (112.9 projected, -4.2) | (14.4) | |
| 2025.08 | (108.1 projected, -4.8) | ||||
| 2025.09 | (103.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.10 | (99.9 projected, -3.9) | ||||
| 2025.11 | (97.6 projected, -2.3) | ||||
| 2025.12 | (96.0 projected, -1.6) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Compared to the peak of SC25 solar flux has been at a low level in both May
and June 2025. Taking a closer look at the 81 day (3 solar rotations)
average solar flux proxy, its peak was in early September 2024 and had on
May 12 decreased to less than half of the solar cycle flux range.
Subtracting the 81 day average of approximately 69 at solar cycle minimum
from all measurements, the SC25 range is 0 - 158.3.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
