Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on April 25, 2025 at 07:55 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (April 4, 2025)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (April 1, 2025) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (April 1, 2025) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (August 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (April 1, 2025) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (April 1, 2025) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 21, 2025) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing
Calculating the Strength of Solar Cycle 25 Using 365-day Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels on April 24. A weak solar wind shock was observed at ACE at 06:14 UT. The source is uncertain, with an outside chance that the source was the April 22 CME. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 478 and 599 km/sec, averaging 517 km/sec (-8 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 169.6 - increasing 10.2 over the previous solar rotation. The 365 days average solar flux at 1 AU was 194.31 (183 days ago). SC25 peak: 195.86 on October 13, 2024 (subtracting a baseline solar flux level of 65, this is +62.6% compared to the SC24 peak and -1.7% compared to the SC23 peak). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 13 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.0). Three hour interval K indices: 33434221 (planetary), 22433322 (Boulder), 42334233 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 19 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 399) and in 15 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 238) SDO/HMI images.

AR 14062 [S03W57] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14064 [N10W32] gained area as more new flux emerged in the intermediate spot section. M flares are possible.
AR 14065 [S32W26] was quiet and stable.
AR 14067 [S03W30] developed early in the day, then decayed again.
AR 14068 [S26E24] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14069 [S08W19] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14070 [S12E12] matured as longitudinal extension increased. An M flare is still possible. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 04:16, C1.4 @ 06:22, C1.6 @ 16:18, C1.3 @ 18:13 UT
AR 14072 [S18E49] was quiet and stable.
New AR 14073 [N11E39] emerged on April 23 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10999 [N15E10] was mostly quiet and stable.
S11000 [S20W46] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 06:55, C1.7 @ 15:12 UT
S11009 [S06E35] was quiet and stable.
S11012 [S17W03] was quiet and stable.
S11016 [S09W42] decayed slowly and quietly.
S11017 [N06E71] was quiet and stable.
S11018 [S11E59] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S11020 [S17E73] rotated into view with several spots.
New region S11021 [N18E80] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
New region S11022 [N21E37] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.

C2+ flares

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C3.8 00:28 N15W12 14064 GOES19  
C3.2 00:39   14064 GOES19  
C3.0 01:44   14070 GOES19  
C3.0 02:37   14067 GOES19  
C2.4 14:34   14064 GOES19  
C2.4 14:44   14064 GOES19  
C2.0 15:41   14064 GOES19  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

April 23-24: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
April 22: A number of CMEs were observed during the day. The only one that might have an Earth directed company was observed after a C2.9 flare in AR 14065 when that region was rotating across the central meridian. While most of the CME was directed due south, there is a chance of CME effects on April 25.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A very large positive polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1286) rotated across the central meridian on April 17-25. A small northern hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole (CH1287) was Earth facing on April 22. Another northern hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole (CH1288) was Earth facing on April 24.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on April 25-28 due to effects from CH1286/CH1288 and effects from the April 22 CME, occasional minor storm intervals are possible.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions



(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
STAR SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
14062 2025.04.14
2025.04.15
3 12 5 S03W57 0070 HAX CAO

was AR S10984

area: 0150

S10985 2025.04.14       N05W57            
14064 2025.04.15
2025.04.16
12 45 24 N11W32 0200 EAI EAC

was AR S10989

location: N10W32

area: 0430

14065 2025.04.16
2025.04.17
1 3 1 S31W27 0040 HSX CSO

was AR S10990

location: S32W26

area: 0090

14066 2025.04.17 1     S05W44 0010 AXX       trailing spots of AR 14062. There was no obvious reason for SWPC's split, which would make this an interpretational mistake
14067 2025.04.17
2025.04.18
1 7 2 S03W27 0010 AXX CRO

was AR S10994

location: S03W30

area: 0020

S10999 2025.04.19   18 3 N15E10 0030   BXO  
S11000 2025.04.19   11 5 S20W46 0040   CRI  
14068 2025.04.20
2025.04.21
2 10 4 S26E22 0050 DSO CAO was AR S11002

location: S26E24

S11003 2025.04.20       S20W47          
14070 2025.04.20
2025.04.22
7 37 19 S12E14 0090 DAI DAI was AR S11004

area: 0300

location: S12E12

14069 2025.04.20
2025.04.22
5 17 8 S09W17 0040 DAO DAO was AR S11006

location: S08W19

area: 0060

S11007 2025.04.21       N10W13            
S11009 2025.04.21   2   S06E35 0004   AXX  
14071 2025.04.22 3     S13W99 0010 BXO       SWPC probably regarded ARs S10997 and S10998 as one region
S11010 2025.04.22       N22W13          
14072 2025.04.22
2025.04.23
1 1 1 S18E52 0050 HSX HSX was AR S11011

area: 0130

location: S18E49

S11012 2025.04.22   4 1 S17W03 0010   AXX  
S11013 2025.04.22       N22W52            
S11014 2025.04.22       S33W37            
14073 2025.04.23
2025.04.24
6 21 8 N12E40 0030 DRI DRI beta-gamma

was AR S11015

location: N11E39

area: 0080

S11016 2025.04.23   2   S09W42 0002   BXO  
S11017 2025.04.23   1 1 N06E71 0250   HHX  
S11018 2025.04.23   5 2 S11E59 0012   CRO  
S11019 2025.04.23       N34W55          
S11020 2025.04.24   10 5 S17E73 0040   DRO    
S11021 2025.04.24   1   N18E80 0002   AXX    
S11022 2025.04.24   2   N21E37 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 42 209 88  
Sunspot number: 152 399 238  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 80 269 148  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 167 219 190  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (SC24 solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(SC24 peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2023.10  142.8 141.9 99.9 124.8 (+0.8) 8.16
2023.11 153.5 150.2 107.1 127.9 (+3.1) 12.20
2023.12 151.1 146.4 113.5 129.5 (+1.6) 9.60
2024.01 164.6 159.3 126.0 131.2 (+1.7) 5.46
2024.02 172.5 168.3 123.0 136.9 (+5.7) 5.31
2024.03 154.4 152.9 103.7 141.4 (+4.5) 11.03
2024.04 161.3 162.6 137.0 144.5 (+3.1) 9.69
2024.05 187.7 191.9 172.1 149.1 (+4.6) 23.56
(SC25 peak)
2024.06 184.3 190.2 164.1 152.8 (+3.7) 10.24
2024.07 196.6 203.0 196.8 155.0 (+2.3) 7.13
2024.08  246.1
(cycle peak)
252.2 216.0  (SC25 peak) 156.8 (+1.8) 15.96
2024.09 195.7 197.8 141.1 159.4 (+1.6) 15.36
2024.10 221.0 219.6 165.8 (160.3 projected, +0.9) 18.99
2024.11 199.6 195.3 154.1 (157.7 projected, -2.6) 9.33
2024.12 197.3 191.2 154.6 (153.9 projected, -3.8) 8.42
2025.01 190.3 184.2 137.0 (148.4 projected, -5.5) 13.17
2025.02  184.2 179.7 154.7 (139.9 projected, -8.5) 14.42
2025.03 163.7 162.1 134.2 (133.5 projected, -6.4) 15.96
2025.04 164.6 (1)   98.1 (2A) / 122.7 (2B) / 148.1 (2C)
ISN average: 135
(128.9 projected, -4.6) (20.9)
2025.05       (123.6 projected, -5.3)  
2025.06       (118.6 projected, -5.0)  
2025.07       (114.5 projected, -4.1)  
2025.08       (109.8 projected, -4.7)  
2025.09       (105.5 projected, -4.3)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory Of Belgium, Brussels

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

Update on the progress of solar cycle 25 as of April 14, 2025

Sunspot activity has been on a slowly decreasing trend since September 2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy). All 365 days smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024, very likely making this the solar max. SDO1K 365d peak: 236.1, SDO2K 365d peak: 364.4, NOAA SN 365d peak: 156.0, ISN 365d peak: 163.6. The 365d smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, only 1.7% below the SC23 peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.

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This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.