The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on September 27. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 342 and 424 km/sec. A weak disturbance appears to be in progress as this as I write this, maybe related to the arrival of a high speed stream associated with CH1244. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 186.0 - decreasing 45.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 176.13. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 176.13 on March 29, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.3). Three hour interval K indices: 12212000 (planetary), 13322311 (Boulder), 54224353 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 19 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 397) and in 15 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 245) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13828 [S12W74]
decayed and had only tiny spots as it rotated to the southwest limb.
AR
13834 [S16W26] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 13835 [S22W02] developed as new flux emerged. An M class flare is
possible.
AR 13836 [S11E19] was mostly quiet and stable. There are many
negative polarity spots and only a few tiny positive polarity spots.
AR 13837 [S11W47] was quiet and stable.
AR 13838 [N15E28] decayed and could soon become spotless.
AR 13839 [S13E59] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC are including
the spots of AR S10168 in this group.
New AR 13840 [N14E14] emerged on September 25 and was numbered by
SWPC 2 days later as the spot group began to decay.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10148 [S20W12] was quiet and stable.
S10151 [S19W03] decayed slowly and quietly.
S10152 [N19E08] was quiet and stable.
S10160 [S04E06] was quiet and stable.
S10162 [N13E59] gained a few spots and was mostly quiet.
S10166 [S22E08] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S10168 [S15E73] rotated into view as a fairly compact spot
group with a magnetic delta configuration. The region was the source of a
large majority of the flares recorded during the day, however, flare
frequency and magnitude decreased towards the end of the day.
New region S10169 [S20E41] emerged with tiny spots before
noon, then decayed slowly.
New region S10170 [N25E35] was observed with a tiny spot in an old
plage area.
New region S10171 [S03E56] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New region S10172 [S03E36] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C4.3 | 00:08 | S10168 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 00:49 | S10168 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 01:34 | S10168 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 02:06 | 13836 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.9 | 02:32 | 13833 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.6 | 03:11 | S10168 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 05:36 | S10168 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 06:09 | S10168 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 07:23 | S10168 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.9 | 08:00 | S15E83 | S10168 | GOES16 | |
| C3.5 | 08:50 | 13839 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.4 | 10:28 | S10168 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.6 | 11:53 | S10168 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 13:13 | S10168 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.3 | 15:06 | S10168 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13836 | |
| C3.3 | 18:46 | S10168 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 20:46 | S10168 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 23:28 | S10162 | GOES16 |
September 25-27: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent negative polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1244) was in an Earth facing position on September 25-26.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on September 28-29 due to effects from CH1244. Quiet conditions are likely on September 30 - October 1.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13827 | 2024.09.15 2024.09.16 |
1 | S28W83 | 0030 | HSX |
 |
rotated out of view |
||||
| 13828 | 2024.09.16 2024.09.16 |
2 | 3 | 2 | S12W74 | 0030 | CRO | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0010 |
| 13834 | 2024.09.19 2024.09.20 |
4 | 19 | 14 | S15W25 | 0030 | DAI | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0060 location: S16W26 very low spot count by SWPC |
| S10148 | 2024.09.21 | 13 | 3 | S20W12 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13835 | 2024.09.22 2024.09.22 |
5 | 33 | 17 | S09E01 | 0030 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
location: S22W02 area: 0170 SWPC location is way off |
| 13836 | 2024.09.22 2024.09.23 |
10 | 58 | 26 | S12E18 | 0210 | DAI | CAI |
 |
 |
area: 0260 location: S11E19 |
| 13837 | 2024.09.23 2024.09.25 |
1 | 6 | 3 | S11W45 | 0010 | HRX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S11W47 |
| S10151 | 2024.09.23 | 3 | 2 | S19W05 | 0020 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| S10152 | 2024.09.23 | 6 | 2 | N19E08 | 0013 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S10154 | 2024.09.24 | N03W42 | |||||||||
| S10156 | 2024.09.24 | S08E04 | |||||||||
| S10157 | 2024.09.24 | N10W30 | |||||||||
| 13838 | 2024.09.24 2024.09.26 |
1 | 4 | 2 | N15E30 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N15E28 |
| S10159 | 2024.09.24 | N43W31 | |||||||||
| S10160 | 2024.09.25 | 9 | 3 | S04E06 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13840 | 2024.09.25 2024.09.27 |
1 | 5 | 2 | N16E16 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N14E14 area: 0020 |
| S10162 | 2024.09.25 | 11 | 3 | N13E59 | 0030 | CRI |
 |
 |
|||
| 13839 | 2024.09.26 2024.09.26 |
7 | 4 | 3 | S14E63 | 0170 | FAI | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0110 location: S13E59 SWPC includes AR S10168 |
| S10165 | 2024.09.26 | S38E15 |
 |
||||||||
| S10166 | 2024.09.26 | 4 | S22E08 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S10168 | 2024.09.27 | 20 | 12 | S15E73 | 0220 | DAC |
 |
beta-gamma | |||
| S10169 | 2024.09.27 | 3 | S20E41 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S10170 | 2024.09.27 | 1 | N25E35 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S10171 | 2024.09.27 | 2 | S03E56 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S10172 | 2024.09.27 | 3 | 1 | S03E36 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 32 | 207 | 95 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 122 | 397 | 245 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 61 | 242 | 130 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 134 | 218 | 196 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.8 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | (143.3 projected, +6.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (147.8 projected, +4.5) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 171.7 | (152.6 projected, +4.8) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (156.5 projected, +4.0) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 |
203.0 | 196.5 | (158.3 projected, +1.8) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 215.5 (SC25 peak) | (158.7 projected, +0.4) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.0 (1) | 129.8 (2A) / 144.2 (2B) / 184.1 (2C) [ISN average: 148] |
(160.8 projected, +2.1) | (16.0) | |
| 2024.10 | (162.7 projected, +1.9) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (160.7 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (156.4 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (150.3 projected, -6.1) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (143.0 projected, -7.3) | ||||
| 2025.03 | (136.2 projected, -6.8) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot counts in August 2024 were much higher than during any previous solar cycle 25 month. In comparison only 3 months during solar cycle 23 had higher SSN. Sunspot counts in early September are still high, although lower than in the beginning of August. With at least 5 consecutive months of high sunspot counts the projected peak for the smoothed ISN (365 days smoothing) has increased significantly to above 160 and could easily surpass 170 if the current activity lasts through October. The month of the peak is likely to occur sometime between July and November 2024.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
