The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels on September 15 under the influence a high speed stream associated with CH1241. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 448 and 567 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at 3.6 pfu at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 172.8 - decreasing 66.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 175.95. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 175.95 on March 17, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 18 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 17.8). Three hour interval K indices: 24444432 (planetary), 15423433 (Boulder), 45444353 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 325) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 196) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13814 [N15W66] was quiet and decayed slowly.
AR 13822 [N13W56] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13824 [S04W27] gained a few spots and produced several C flares.
C1 flares: C1.9 @ 04:59 UT
AR 13825 [S16E37] decayed fairly quickly losing all magnetic delta
configurations. There is still a chance of M class flaring. C1 flares: C1.9
@ 17:44, C1.7 @ 22:56 UT
AR 13826 [S28W29] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10114 [N12W19] decayed slowly and quietly.
S10115 [S15E21] was quiet and stable.
S10117 [N18E01] was quiet and stable.
New region S10122 [S10E28] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S10124 [N15E26] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage
area.
New region S10125 [S26E78] rotated into view before noon with a
mature spot.
New region S10126 [N16W25] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S10127 [N08E63] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S10128 [N06E22] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S10129 [S02E15] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S10130 [S19W04] was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 00:53 | 13824 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 03:03 | 13825 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 05:24 | 13824 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 07:55 | S05W16 | 13824 | GOES16 | |
| C2.5 | 08:04 | 13825 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 09:04 | 13825 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 11:06 | 13825 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 11:12 | 13825 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 15:28 | S05W16 | 13824 | GOES16 | |
| C3.9/1F | 21:33 | S13E29 | 13825 | GOES16 | |
| C3.4 | 21:42 | 13825 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.9 | 23:34 | 13824 | GOES16 |
September 15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
September 14: A full halo CME was observed after the X4.5 flare in AR
13825 peaking at 15:29 UT. While the fastest parts of the CME are not headed
towards Earth, there is a chance of a fairly strong disturbance starting
during the latter half of September 16. This CME will likely arrive just
after the September 13 CME.
September 13: A partial halo CME was observed after the M2.9 flare in
AR 13814 peaking at 08:37 UT. This CME could reach Earth on September 16.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole (CH1242) was in an Earth facing position on September 14.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on September 16-17 due to CME effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on September 18-19.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13814 | 2024.09.04 2024.09.04 |
2 | 1 | 1 | N16W70 | 0090 | CSO | HHX |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0270 location: N15W66 |
| S10099 | 2024.09.06 | S08W45 | |||||||||
| 13817 | 2024.09.07 | S14W75 | It's uncertain what SWPC observed on Sept.7 when they numbered this AR, there were no spots in the location provided for that day | ||||||||
| 13822 | 2024.09.07 2024.09.09 |
2 | 16 | 8 | N14W56 | 0010 | CRO | CRI |
 |
 |
area: 0030 location: N13W56 |
| S10103 | 2024.09.08 | N24W56 | |||||||||
| 13824 | 2024.09.10 2024.09.11 |
2 | 42 | 20 | S04W26 | 0040 | CSI | ESI |
 |
 |
location: S04W15 area: 0240 SWPC spot count is way too low, classification doesn't match the spot count |
| S10107 | 2024.09.11 | S18W46 |
 |
||||||||
| 13825 | 2024.09.12 2024.09.13 |
10 | 47 | 29 | S15E35 | 0150 | EAI | EAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0400 location: S16E37 |
| S10109 | 2024.09.12 | S14W37 | |||||||||
| S10110 | 2024.09.12 | N13W30 | |||||||||
| S10114 | 2024.09.13 | 6 | 1 | N12W19 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10115 | 2024.09.13 | 22 | 3 | S15E21 | 0030 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10117 | 2024.09.13 | 5 | 2 | N18E01 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 13826 | 2024.09.14 2024.09.14 |
2 | 4 | 3 | S28W31 | 0050 | DRI | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S10118 location: S28W29 SWPC classification and spot count don't match well |
| S10120 | 2024.09.14 | S17W08 |
 |
||||||||
| S10121 | 2024.09.14 | N22W36 |
 |
||||||||
| S10122 | 2024.09.15 | 2 | 2 | S10E28 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10124 | 2024.09.15 | 3 | N15E26 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S10125 | 2024.09.15 | 1 | 1 | S26E78 | 0230 | HSX |
 |
||||
| S10126 | 2024.09.15 | 9 | 5 | N16W25 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10127 | 2024.09.15 | 1 | N08E63 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S10128 | 2024.09.15 | 2 | N06E22 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S10129 | 2024.09.15 | 3 | S02E15 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S10130 | 2024.09.15 | 1 | 1 | S19W04 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 18 | 165 | 76 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 68 | 325 | 196 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 39 | 196 | 107 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 75 | 179 | 157 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.8 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | (143.3 projected, +6.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (147.8 projected, +4.5) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 171.7 | (152.6 projected, +4.8) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (156.5 projected, +4.0) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 |
203.0 | 196.5 | (158.3 projected, +1.8) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 215.5 (SC25 peak) | (158.7 projected, +0.4) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 216.6 (1) | 78.8 (2A) / 157.6 (2B) / 198.3 (2C) [ISN average: 158] |
(160.8 projected, +2.1) | (15.1) | |
| 2024.10 | (162.7 projected, +1.9) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (160.7 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (156.4 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (150.3 projected, -6.1) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (143.0 projected, -7.3) | ||||
| 2025.03 | (136.2 projected, -6.8) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot counts in August 2024 were much higher than during any previous solar cycle 25 month. In comparison only 3 months during solar cycle 23 had higher SSN. Sunspot counts in early September are still high, although lower than in the beginning of August. With at least 5 consecutive months of high sunspot counts the projected peak for the smoothed ISN (365 days smoothing) has increased significantly to above 160 and could easily surpass 170 if the current activity lasts through October. The month of the peak is likely to occur sometime between July and November 2024.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
