The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels on November 15. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 352 and 457 km/sec, averaging 396 km/sec (+3 compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 148.9 - decreasing 13.4 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 186.01. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50 while SC23 peaked on February 23, 2002 at 198.15. Current SC25 peak: 186.01 on May 16, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.6). Three hour interval K indices: 34323222 (planetary), 33333322 (Boulder), 35224344(Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 189) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 130) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13889 [S09W42] decayed slowly in the leading
and intermediate spot sections. Many low level C flares were recorded. An M flare is
still possible. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 00:35, C1.8 @ 08:44, C1.7 @ 15:21, C1.3 @
16:13, C1.5 @ 16:25, C1.5 @ 17:57, C1.9 @ 20:07 UT
AR 13892 [S11W28] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13893 [S19E37] displayed signs of decay after the 2 M flares.
AR 13894 [N23E29] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10347 [S03W21] developed slowly and quietly as new flux emerged.
S10353 [N22W08] reemerged with tiny spots.
S10358 [S12W01] was quiet and stable.
New region S10360 [N14W72] emerged with a tiny spot before
noon, then decayed slowly.
New region S10362 [N07W02] was observed with
tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S10363 [S38E34] emerged with tiny spots.
AR 13891 was the source of a C1.8 flare at 19:01 UT
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.2 | 00:59 | 13886 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 01:46 | 13893 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 02:39 | southwest limb | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 04:13 | 13889 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 04:29 | 13889 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 07:14 | 13889 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare at the southwest limb | |
| C3.8 | 08:17 | 13889 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 09:32 | 13886 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 10:15 | 13889 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 11:01 | southwest limb | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 11:16 | southwest limb | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 12:18 | S20E43 | 13893 | GOES16 | |
| C2.5 | 12:57 | 13889 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 15:35 | 13886 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 17:06 | 13889 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13886 | |
| C2.2 | 18:42 | 13889 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 22:34 | 13889 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 23:48 | 13889 | GOES16 |
November 13-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
November 15: A filament eruption in the southeast quadrant early in
the day was associated with a partial halo CME. Components of this CME coud
reach Earth on November 18.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent positive polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1255) was Earth facing on November 14-15. A negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1256) will likely rotate across the central meridian on November 18-21.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on November 16 and then quiet to active on Nov. 17-18 due to effects from CH1255. Components of the November 15 CME could reach Earth on November 18 and cause unsettled and active intervals.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13890 | 2024.11.04 2024.11.09 |
S12W82 | location: S13W78 | ||||||||
| 13891 | 2024.11.05 2024.11.11 |
S15W56 |
location: S16W51 |
||||||||
| 13889 | 2024.11.06 2024.11.07 |
20 | 38 | 28 | S09W43 | 0540 | FKI | FKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0850 location: S09W42 |
| 13892 | 2024.11.08 2024.11.11 |
2 | 10 | 3 | S11W29 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S11W28 |
| S10343 | 2024.11.10 | N17W48 | |||||||||
| S10344 | 2024.11.10 | S05W37 | |||||||||
| S10347 | 2024.11.11 | 4 | 3 | S03W21 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13893 | 2024.11.12 2024.11.13 |
4 | 14 | 6 | S19E34 | 0050 | CSO | CAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0090 location: S19E37 |
| S10349 | 2024.11.12 | N12W55 |
 |
||||||||
| S10350 | 2024.11.12 | S27W52 | |||||||||
| 13894 | 2024.11.13 2024.11.14 |
5 | 11 | 5 | N24E30 | 0030 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0025 location: N23E29 |
| S10352 | 2024.11.13 | N04E25 | |||||||||
| S10353 | 2024.11.13 | 1 | N22W08 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S10355 | 2024.11.14 | N10E08 |
 |
||||||||
| S10356 | 2024.11.14 | N03E26 |
 |
||||||||
| S10357 | 2024.11.14 | S17E44 |
 |
||||||||
| S10358 | 2024.11.14 | 6 | 2 | S12W01 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10359 | 2024.11.14 | S13E16 |
 |
||||||||
| S10360 | 2024.11.15 | 1 | N14W72 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S10362 | 2024.11.15 | 2 | 2 | N07W02 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S10363 | 2024.11.15 | 2 | 1 | S38E34 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 31 | 89 | 50 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 71 | 189 | 130 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 49 | 110 | 71 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 78 | 104 | 104 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.9 (+3.1) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.5 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.6) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.8) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.4 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | (149.7 projected, +5.3) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | (153.6 projected, +3.9) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.5 | (156.5 projected, +2.9) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 215.5 (SC25 peak) | (158.5 projected, +2.0) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.4 | (161.2 projected, +2.7) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 166.3 | (163.5 projected, +2.3) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 210.5 (1) | 76.8 (2A) / 153.6 (2B) / 207.1 (2C) | (161.8 projected, -1.7) | (11.8) | |
| 2024.12 | (158.7 projected, -3.1) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (154.4 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (147.6 projected, -6.8) | ||||
| 2025.03 | (142.8 projected, -4.8) | ||||
| 2025.04 | (139.8 projected, -3.0) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity in October 2024 increased over September and looks to be headed for an SSN near 160. The average solar flux for October will become the second highest for a month during SC25. The above plot now displays the peak in 365d smoothed sunspot numbers in mid October 2024. ISN has a peak on October 15, NOAA SN on October 14 while both the 1K and 2K SDO SN peaked on October 16. Assuming that the average sunspot number from October 2024 until April 14, 2025 becomes 150, we would be looking at a 365 days smoothed sunspot maximum of 164.5 centered on October 15. Should the average sunspot number for that period become 160 we would get a peak near 169.7.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
