The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm on November 10. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 387 and 473 km/sec, averaging 422 km/sec (+13 compared to the previous day). A transition to a high speed positive polarity stream was observed around noon. The source of this disturbance is probably a large southern hemisphere coronal hole which was considered to be probably too far to the south to cause a disturbance. Alternatively it is the early arrival of effects from CH1254. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to severe storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 18h UT on 2.8 GHz was 211.0 - increasing 29.1 over the previous solar rotation. The measurement at 20h UT was enhanced due to an M4.9 flare in AR 13889 and therefore replaced by the measurement at 18h UT. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 185.56. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 185.56 on May 12, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 25 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 24.9). Three hour interval K indices: 44224463 (planetary), 4331**** (Boulder), 45224575 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 423) and in 13 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 257) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13879 [N15W81] was quiet and stable.
AR 13883 [S06W51] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 13884 [S07W27] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 13886 [S05W17] decayed further and was mostly quiet.
AR 13889 [S09E25] developed in the leading spot section and has
several magnetic delta configurations. One of them formed due to the
development of nearby AR S10340 just ahead of AR 13889. Further major flares
are possible.
AR 13890 [S13W13] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10314 [S14W23] was quiet and stable.
S10330 [S15E16] developed slowly and quietly.
S10339 [S11E38] developed slowly and quietly.
S10340 [S09E18] developed further with the trailing spots interacting
with AR 13889. M class flaring is possible.
New region S10341 [N28W38] emerged before noon with tiny spots.
New region S10342 [S17W01] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New region S10343 [N17E17] emerged with tiny spots inside CH1254.
New region S10344 [S05E28] was observed with tiny spots in an
old plage area just north of AR 13889.
New region S10345 [N28W02] emerged with tiny spots inside CH1254.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| M4.2/1B | 00:15 | S08E33 | 13889 | GOES16 | |
| C4.3 | 01:18 | 13890/13886 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 01:42 | 13881 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 02:46 | S10340 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 03:31 | 13889 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 04:47 | S13E45 | 13889 | GOES16 | |
| C3.2 | 05:34 | S08E31 | 13889 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13881 |
| C3.9 | 07:19 | 13889 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 09:13 | 13886 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 10:03 | 13889 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 10:51 | S10314 | GOES16 | ||
| M9.4/2B | 12:06 | S08E26 | 13889/S10340 | GOES16 | strong type II radio sweep |
| C2.8 | 13:33 | 13889 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.7 | 14:39 | 13886 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 15:36 | S10314 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.7 | 15:58 | 13889/S10340 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 19:35 | S12E30 | 13889 | GOES16 | |
| M4.9/2N | 20:21 | 13889 | GOES16 | trailing part of AR 13889 | |
| M1.4 | 20:58 | 13889 | GOES16 | northern part of AR 13889 | |
| C3.7 | 22:09 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.4 | 22:53 | 13881 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 23:41 | 13889 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 23:58 | 13889 | GOES16 |
November 8-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
November 10: A slow moving CME was observed after the M9 flare in AR
13889, mostly off the southern limbs. This CME could be absorbed by the
solar wind, however, there is a chance of weak effects reaching Earth on
November 13-14.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole (CH1254) will be Earth facing on November 8-14. CH1254 has expanded a lot since the previous rotation and become a very large coronal hole.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on November 11-17 due to a coronal high speed stream associated with CH1254. Weak effects from the November 10 CME are possible on November 13-14.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13879 | 2024.10.28 2024.10.29 |
1 | 3 | 2 | N15W83 | 0320 | HHX | HKX |
 |
 |
area: 0850 location: N15W81 |
| 13880 | 2024.10.29 2024.10.31 |
S14W82 |
location: S14W75 |
||||||||
| 13883 | 2024.11.01 2024.11.02 |
12 | 30 | 17 | S06W49 | 0300 | EKI | FKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0390 location: S06W51 |
| 13884 | 2024.11.02 2024.11.02 |
1 | 20 | 4 | S07W28 | 0010 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0030 location: S07W27 borderline CRO classification |
| S10314 | 2024.11.02 | 12 | 2 | S14W23 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13886 | 2024.11.03 2024.11.03 |
12 | 48 | 23 | S06W17 | 0100 | EAO | EAI |
 |
 |
location: S05W17 |
| S10319 | 2024.11.03 | N18W46 | |||||||||
| S10320 | 2024.11.03 | N16W28 | |||||||||
| S10323 | 2024.11.04 | S07W59 | |||||||||
| 13890 | 2024.11.04 2024.11.09 |
6 | 27 | 11 | S12W13 | 0030 | BXO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S12W13 |
| S10325 | 2024.11.04 | S14W52 | |||||||||
| S10330 | 2024.11.05 | 19 | 10 | S15E16 | 0080 | DRI |
 |
 |
|||
| 13889 | 2024.11.06 2024.11.07 |
20 | 76 | 40 | S10E28 | 0480 | FKO | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S09E25 area: 0830 |
| S10334 | 2024.11.06 | N12W44 | |||||||||
| S10336 | 2024.11.06 | S14W39 | |||||||||
| S10337 | 2024.11.07 | S11W06 | |||||||||
| S10338 | 2024.11.07 | N22W19 | |||||||||
| S10339 | 2024.11.08 | 8 | 4 | S11E38 | 0025 | CRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S10340 | 2024.11.09 | 14 | 6 | S09E18 | 0090 | DAO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10341 | 2024.11.10 | 4 | 3 | N28W38 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10342 | 2024.11.10 | 4 | 2 | S17W01 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10343 | 2024.11.10 | 4 | 3 | N17E17 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S10344 | 2024.11.10 | 2 | S05E28 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S10345 | 2024.11.10 | 2 | N28W02 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 52 | 273 | 127 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 112 | 423 | 257 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 92 | 327 | 181 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 123 | 233 | 206 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.9 (+3.1) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.5 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.6) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.8) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.4 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | (149.7 projected, +5.3) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | (153.6 projected, +3.9) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.5 | (156.5 projected, +2.9) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 215.5 (SC25 peak) | (158.5 projected, +2.0) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.4 | (161.2 projected, +2.7) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 166.3 | (163.5 projected, +2.3) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 239.8 (1) | 59.1 (2A) / 177.4 (2B) / 212.6 (2C) | (161.8 projected, -1.7) | (13.6) | |
| 2024.12 | (158.7 projected, -3.1) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (154.4 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (147.6 projected, -6.8) | ||||
| 2025.03 | (142.8 projected, -4.8) | ||||
| 2025.04 | (139.8 projected, -3.0) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity in October 2024 increased over September and looks to be headed for an SSN near 160. The average solar flux for October will become the second highest for a month during SC25. The above plot now displays the peak in 365d smoothed sunspot numbers in mid October. ISN has a peak on October 15, NOAA SN on October 14 while both the 1K and 2K SDO SN peaked on October 16. Assuming that the average sunspot number from October 2024 until April 14, 2025 becomes 150, we would be looking at a 365 days smoothed sunspot maximum of 164.5 centered on October 15. Should the average sunspot number for that period become 160 we would get a peak near 169.7.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
