The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 5 under the weakening influence of CH1252. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 437 and 497 km/sec, averaging 462 km/sec (-14 compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 245.6 - increasing 25.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 184.35. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 184.35 on May 7, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.0). Three hour interval K indices: 31333223 (planetary), 21434322 (Boulder), 41212344 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 19 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 482) and in 18 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 324) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13878 [N16W38] decayed in most parts of the
region. New flux emerged to the northwest of the largest spot and small
spots formed. This looks like a separate spot group, however, it is too
close to AR 13878 at this stage to be numbered.
AR 13879 [N15W16] was quiet and stable.
AR 13880 [S14W07] reemerged with a tiny spot.
AR 13881 [S09W29] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13883 [S06E20] gained spots and area and has a magnetic delta
configuration in the intermediate spot section. A major flare is possible.
AR 13884 [S07E38] was quiet and stable.
AR 13885 [S09W72] decayed quickly and was quiet.
AR 13886 [S05E51] was mostly quiet and displayed no major changes.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10292 [N15W57] developed quickly and gained a
magnetic delta configuration. M flares are likely.
S10304 [S11W44] reemerged with tiny spots.
S10314 [S13E42] was quiet and stable.
S10319 [N19E18] was quiet and stable.
S10323 [S10E02] was quiet and stable.
S10324 [S12E52] was quiet and stable. The northern spot section was
split off into AR S10331.
New region S10327 [N04W38] emerged with a few spots.
New region S10329 [N15W02] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S10330 [S15E81] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
New region S10331 [S08E52] was split off from AR S10324.
New region S10332 [S33W19] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C7.8 | 01:20 | S06E33 | 13883 | GOES16 | |
| C5.4 | 02:29 | 13886 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.8 | 02:59 | 13883 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S10324 | |
| C5.5 | 04:00 | behind southeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| C8.7 | 04:17 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.4 | 04:43 | N14W29 | 13878 | GOES16 | |
| C4.8 | 05:56 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.6 | 06:54 | behind southeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 08:12 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.0 | 08:29 | S06E25 | 13883 | GOES16 | |
| M1.0 | 09:23 | S07E28 | 13883 | GOES16 | |
| C7.9 | 09:38 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.6 | 09:45 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.9 | 10:59 | S10324 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13883 | |
| C4.4 | 11:16 | S10292 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.2 | 11:28 | S10324 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.7 | 12:07 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4 | 13:19 | S10292 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 13:38 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.4 | 14:14 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.9/2N | 14:20 | S06E24 | 13883 | GOES16 | |
| M4.1 | 15:25 | 13873 | GOES16 | weak type II radio sweep | |
| C8.3 | 16:43 | S10324 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13883 | |
| C5.4 | 18:43 | S10324 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 19:06 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.0 | 19:30 | behind southeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| C6.8 | 19:35 | behind southeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| C7.5 | 19:49 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.1 | 20:37 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.6 | 22:42 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.5 | 23:28 | 13883 | GOES16 |
November 3, 5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
November 4: A slow full halo CME was observed after the M3.8 flare in
AR 13883 at 01:40 UT.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A positive polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1252) was Earth facing on October 31 - November 1. A trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1253) will rotate acrosss the central meridian on November 4-5. A recurrent northern hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole (CH1254) could become Earth facing on November 8-9.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 6. The November 4 CME could reach Earth on November 7 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. A high speed stream from CH1253 could cause some unsettled and active intervals on November 8-9.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13872 | 2024.10.23 2024.10.24 |
4 | S16W90 | 0080 | DAI |
merged with AR 13869 on 2024.10.31 |
|||||
| 13873 | 2024.10.24 2024.10.24 |
S09W84 |
 |
SWPC interpreted the leader spot as AR 13872 |
|||||||
| 13877 | 2024.10.25 2024.10.27 |
S17W74 |
location: S17W66 |
||||||||
| 13878 | 2024.10.26 2024.10.27 |
4 | 22 | 8 | N16W43 | 0140 | DSO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N16W38 area: 0280 |
| S10292 | 2024.10.27 | 25 | 13 | N15W57 | 0240 | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-delta | ||
| 13879 | 2024.10.28 2024.10.29 |
1 | 17 | 4 | N15W17 | 0440 | HHX | CHO |
 |
 |
area: 0800 location: N15W16 |
| 13880 | 2024.10.29 2024.10.31 |
1 | 1 | S14E02 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
location: S14W07 |
|||
| S10299 | 2024.10.30 | S15W57 |
 |
||||||||
| S10300 | 2024.10.30 | S06E04 |
 |
||||||||
| 13881 | 2024.10.30 2024.11.01 |
9 | 21 | 9 | S09W28 | 0180 | DSO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0270 location: S09W29 |
| S10304 | 2024.10.31 | 2 | S11W44 |
 |
 |
||||||
| S10307 | 2024.11.01 | N08W27 | |||||||||
| 13883 | 2024.11.01 2024.11.02 |
22 | 69 | 39 | S06E21 | 0270 | EKI | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0750 location: S06E20 |
| S10309 | 2024.11.01 | S24W19 | |||||||||
| S10310 | 2024.11.01 | S29W56 | |||||||||
| 13884 | 2024.11.02 2024.11.02 |
1 | 3 | 1 | S07E39 | 0060 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
location: S07E38 area: 0100 |
| 13885 | 2024.11.02 2024.11.03 |
4 | 4 | 3 | S10W71 | 0030 | CAO | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0020 location: S09W72 |
| S10314 | 2024.11.02 | 12 | 4 | S13E42 | 0030 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10315 | 2024.11.02 | N27W46 | |||||||||
| S10316 | 2024.11.02 | N18W00 | |||||||||
| 13886 | 2024.11.03 2024.11.03 |
24 | 44 | 23 | S07E51 | 0250 | EKI | EAI |
 |
 |
location: S05E51 area: 0600 SWPC includes ARs S10331 and S10324 in this spot group |
| S10319 | 2024.11.03 | 7 | 3 | N19E18 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10320 | 2024.11.03 | N16E37 | |||||||||
| S10321 | 2024.11.03 | N31W31 | |||||||||
| S10322 | 2024.11.04 | N03W04 |
 |
||||||||
| S10323 | 2024.11.04 | 10 | 5 | S10E02 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10324 | 2024.11.04 | 25 | 12 | S12E52 | 0130 | DRI |
 |
 |
split off from AR 13886 | ||
| S10325 | 2024.11.04 | S14E13 |
 |
||||||||
| S10326 | 2024.11.04 | S34W27 |
 |
||||||||
| S10327 | 2024.11.05 | 6 | 3 | N04W38 | 0040 | DRO |
 |
||||
| S10329 | 2024.11.05 | 2 | 1 | N15W02 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10330 | 2024.11.05 | 1 | 1 | S15E81 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S10331 | 2024.11.05 | 19 | 13 | S08E52 | 0070 | CRI |
 |
split off from AR S10324 | |||
| S10332 | 2024.11.05 | 2 | 1 | S33W19 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 69 | 292 | 144 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 149 | 482 | 324 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 124 | 352 | 204 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 164 | 265 | 259 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.8 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.3 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | 144.4 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 171.7 | (149.6 projected, +5.2) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (153.5 projected, +3.9) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.5 | (156.4 projected, +2.9) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 215.5 (SC25 peak) | (158.4 projected, +2.0) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.4 | (161.1 projected, +2.7) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 166.3 | (163.4 projected, +2.3) | 19.0 |
| 2024.11 | 247.1 (1) | 33.7 (2A) / 202.4 (2B) / 204.9 (2C) | (161.8 projected, -1.6) | (10.1) | |
| 2024.12 | (158.7 projected, -3.1) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (154.4 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (147.6 projected, -6.8) | ||||
| 2025.03 | (142.8 projected, -4.8) | ||||
| 2025.04 | (139.8 projected, -3.0) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity in October 2024 increased over September and looks to be headed for an SSN near 160. The average solar flux for October will become the second highest for a month during SC25. The above plot now displays the peak in 365d smoothed sunspot numbers in mid October. ISN has a peak on October 15, NOAA SN on October 14 while both the 1K and 2K SDO SN peaked on October 16. Assuming that the average sunspot number from October 2024 until April 14, 2025 becomes 150, we would be looking at a 365 days smoothed sunspot maximum of 164.5 centered on October 15. Should the average sunspot number for that period become 160 we would get a peak near 169.7.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
