The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on November 4 under the influence of effects from CH1252. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 430 and 556 km/sec, averaging 476 km/sec (+10 compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day, a sudden drop to background levels from 0.4 pfu was observed at 15:35 UT.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 242.3 - increasing 17.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 184.09. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 184.09 on May 6, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 14.1). Three hour interval K indices: 45322103 (planetary), 44233312 (Boulder), 54222115 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C4 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 20 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 437) and in 19 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 307) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13869 [S18W84] decayed slowly and quietly
AR 13873 [S16W76] was quiet and stable.
AR 13878 [N16W25] decayed further and produced a few flares.
AR 13879 [N15W03] was quiet and stable.
AR 13881 [S09W15] lost the magnetic delta and was mostly quiet.
AR 13883 [S06E35] gained area and still has multiple magnetic delta
configurations. Another major flare is possible.
AR 13884 [S07E52] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13885 [S10W59] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 13886 [S05E64] produced several flares and has at least minor M
class flare potential.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10292 [N17W42] developed as new flux emerged.
S10299 [S15W44] reemerged with tiny spots.
S10300 [S06E17] reemerged with tiny spots.
S10304 [S11W32] was quiet and stable.
S10314 [S13E56] was quiet and stable.
S10319 [N18E30] was quiet and stable.
New region S10322 [N03E09] was observed with a tiny spot in an old
plage area.
New region S10323 [S10E15] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S10324 [S10E67] was split off from AR 13886.
New region S10325 [S14E26] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New region S10326 [S34W14] emerged with tiny spots.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C5.4 | 00:47 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.5 | 00:57 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| M3.8 | 01:40 | 13883 | GOES16 | CME, weak type II and IV radio sweeps | |
| C7.3 | 03:29 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 03:45 | 13886 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.8 | 03:50 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.3 | 03:57 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 04:15 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.4 | 04:34 | N17W11 | 13878 | GOES16 | |
| C7.1 | 04:51 | behind southwest limb | S10303 | GOES16 | |
| C4.5 | 05:27 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4 | 05:58 | 13886 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.8 | 06:39 | 13886 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.3 | 07:08 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 07:15 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.2 | 07:40 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 08:40 | S07E42 | 13883 | GOES16 | |
| C6.4 | 09:28 | S07E43 | 13883 | GOES16 | |
| M1.6 | 10:17 | S07E41 | 13883 | GOES16 | |
| C8.7 | 10:32 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.3 | 11:00 | 13886 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.5 | 11:09 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.7 | 11:35 | 13885 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.6 | 11:55 | 13885 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.6 | 12:31 | 13883 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13886 | |
| C4.5 | 13:15 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.1 | 14:02 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.1 | 14:13 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 14:28 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.3 | 15:08 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.7 | 15:23 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| M3.7 | 15:33 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| M5.5 | 15:41 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.0 | 17:04 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4 | 18:17 | 13886 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 19:12 | 13886 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 19:33 | southwest limb | 13876 | GOES16 | |
| C3.3 | 20:11 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 21:00 | 13886 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.6 | 22:00 | 13886 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.5 | 23:59 | 13883 | GOES16 |
November 2-3: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
November 4: A slow full halo CME was observed after the M3.8 flare in
AR 13883 at 01:40 UT.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A positive polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1252) was Earth facing on October 31 - November 1. A trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1253) will rotate acrosss the central meridian on November 4-5. A recurrent northern hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole (CH1254) could become Earth facing on November 8-9.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 5 due to effects from CH1252 and quiet on November 6. The November 4 CME could reach Earth on November 7 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. A high speed stream from CH1253 could cause some unsettled and active intervals on November 8-9.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13869 | 2024.10.22 2024.10.23 |
10 | 1 | 1 | S18W88 | 0200 | DSI | HSX |
 |
 |
location: S18W84 area: 0240 |
| 13872 | 2024.10.23 2024.10.24 |
5 | S16W76 | 0120 | DAI |
merged with AR 13869 on 2024.10.31 |
|||||
| 13873 | 2024.10.24 2024.10.24 |
1 | 8 | 6 | S09W70 | 0020 | HRX | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S16W76 area: 0170 SWPC has interpreted the leader spot as AR 13872 |
| 13877 | 2024.10.25 2024.10.27 |
S17W60 |
 |
location: S17W53 |
|||||||
| 13878 | 2024.10.26 2024.10.27 |
15 | 33 | 13 | N16W30 | 0240 | EAI | EKO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N16W25 |
| S10292 | 2024.10.27 | 7 | 3 | N17W42 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
||||
| 13879 | 2024.10.28 2024.10.29 |
1 | 24 | 5 | N15W04 | 0500 | HHX | CKO |
 |
 |
area: 0790 location: N15W03 |
| S10296 | 2024.10.28 | S01W56 | |||||||||
| S10297 | 2024.10.29 | S12W47 | |||||||||
| 13880 | 2024.10.29 2024.10.31 |
S14E02 |
 |
location: S13E05 |
|||||||
| S10299 | 2024.10.30 | 3 | 1 | S15W44 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10300 | 2024.10.30 | 5 | 1 | S06E17 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
||||
| 13881 | 2024.10.30 2024.11.01 |
10 | 19 | 11 | S09W15 | 0240 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0400 location: S09W15 |
| S10304 | 2024.10.31 | 4 | S11W32 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S10305 | 2024.10.31 | S16W48 | |||||||||
| 13882 | 2024.11.01 2024.11.02 |
N23W83 | |||||||||
| S10307 | 2024.11.01 | N08W14 |
 |
||||||||
| 13883 | 2024.11.01 2024.11.02 |
30 | 55 | 30 | S06E37 | 0260 | EKI | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0480 location: S06E35 |
| S10309 | 2024.11.01 | S24W06 |
 |
||||||||
| S10310 | 2024.11.01 | S29W43 | |||||||||
| 13884 | 2024.11.02 2024.11.02 |
2 | 2 | 1 | S07E51 | 0050 | CSO | HSX |
 |
 |
location: S07E52 area: 0100 |
| 13885 | 2024.11.02 2024.11.03 |
5 | 8 | 4 | S10W58 | 0030 | DRO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0080 |
| S10314 | 2024.11.02 | 5 | 3 | S13E56 | 0025 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10315 | 2024.11.02 | N27W33 | |||||||||
| S10316 | 2024.11.02 | N18E13 | |||||||||
| 13886 | 2024.11.03 2024.11.03 |
12 | 26 | 18 | S05E62 | 0150 | EAO | EAC |
 |
 |
location: S05E64 area: 0600 |
| S10319 | 2024.11.03 | 3 | 1 | N18E30 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10320 | 2024.11.03 | N16E50 |
 |
||||||||
| S10321 | 2024.11.03 | N31W18 |
 |
||||||||
| S10322 | 2024.11.04 | 1 | 1 | N03E09 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S10323 | 2024.11.04 | 10 | 5 | S10E15 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10324 | 2024.11.04 | 20 | 11 | S10E67 | 0160 | DAI |
 |
split off from AR 13886 | |||
| S10325 | 2024.11.04 | 2 | 1 | S14E26 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S10326 | 2024.11.04 | 2 | 1 | S34W14 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 91 | 238 | 117 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 191 | 438 | 307 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 147 | 301 | 180 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 210 | 241 | 246 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.8 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.3 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | 144.4 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 171.7 | (149.6 projected, +5.2) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (153.5 projected, +3.9) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.5 | (156.4 projected, +2.9) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 215.5 (SC25 peak) | (158.4 projected, +2.0) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.4 | (161.1 projected, +2.7) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 166.3 | (163.4 projected, +2.3) | 19.0 |
| 2024.11 | 247.4 (1) | 28.8 (2A) / 215.8 (2B) / 204.6 (2C) | (161.8 projected, -1.6) | (10.1) | |
| 2024.12 | (158.7 projected, -3.1) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (154.4 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (147.6 projected, -6.8) | ||||
| 2025.03 | (142.8 projected, -4.8) | ||||
| 2025.04 | (139.8 projected, -3.0) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity in October 2024 increased over September and looks to be headed for an SSN near 160. The average solar flux for October will become the second highest for a month during SC25. The above plot now displays the peak in 365d smoothed sunspot numbers in mid October. ISN has a peak on October 15, NOAA SN on October 14 while both the 1K and 2K SDO SN peaked on October 16. Assuming that the average sunspot number from October 2024 until April 14, 2025 becomes 150, we would be looking at a 365 days smoothed sunspot maximum of 164.5 centered on October 15. Should the average sunspot number for that period become 160 we would get a peak near 169.7.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
