The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 2. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 420 and 521 km/sec, averaging 460 km/sec (-16 compared to the previous day). A transient, probably related to the October 29 CME, was observed reaching ACE sometime between 06 and 09 UT. The total field of the IMF increased to 12 nT, while both the solar wind speed and density increased after 10:20 UT. As I write this, there are still no signs of a disturbance related to CH1251 and CH1252. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at 2.2 pfu at the end of the day, slowly decreasing towards background levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 250.6 - decreasing 13.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 183.62. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 183.62 on May 4, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.6). Three hour interval K indices: 00243233 (planetary), 01134333 (Boulder), 00142335 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 26 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 500) and in 20 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 327) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13868 [S11W86] rotated partly out of view.
AR 13869 [S18W59] developed in the leading spot
section while slow decay was observed in the trailing spot section. A minor
M class flare is possible.
AR 13873 [S16W48] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13874 [N24W78] rotated partly out of view.
AR 13875 [N28W64] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13876 [S03W76] decayed further losing penumbra on the trailing
spots.
AR 13877 [S17W29] decayed before noon and was spotless, then
developed new spots later in the day.
AR 13878 [N15E00] decayed slowly with the leading part of the largest
penumbra splitting off into a separate penumbra. The magnetic delta
configurations became smaller.
AR 13879 [N14E22] was quiet and stable.
AR 13880 [S15E31] was quiet and stable.
AR 13881 [S09E12] developed further and could produce minor M class
flares.
New AR 13882 [N22W55] emerged on November 1 and was numbered the next
day by SWPC.
New AR 13883 [S06E64] rotated into view on November 1 and gained
several spots during the day.
New AR 13884 [S07E78] rotated into view.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10292 [N17W17] was quiet and stable.
S10299 [S14W15] reemerged with tiny spots.
S10300 [S08E39] was quiet and stable.
S10303 [S09W76] matured and produced several flares.
S10304 [S17W01] was quiet and stable.
S10307 [N08E12] was quiet and stable.
S10309 [S25E19] was quiet and stable.
New region S10312 [S09W27] emerged with tiny
spots.
New region S10313 [S04E68] emerged after noon trailing AR 13883.The
two spot groups are relatively close. Given that both are developing they
could merge soon.
New region S10314 [S15E82] rotated into view with a small spot.
New region S10315 [N27W07] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S10316 [N18E39] was observed with a tiny spot in an old
plage area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C4.0 | 00:39 | GOES16 | |||
| C3.7 | 01:14 | 13869 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 01:42 | S10303 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 02:06 | 13869 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 02:50 | GOES16 | |||
| C4.9 | 03:32 | GOES16 | |||
| C5.1 | 03:41 | S10303 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.5 | 03:51 | GOES16 | |||
| C3.3 | 05:40 | GOES16 | |||
| C3.4 | 05:50 | GOES16 | |||
| C3.6 | 06:13 | GOES16 | |||
| C3.8 | 06:51 | N22W45 (SDO/AIA) | 13882 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare behind southeast limb at S12E90 |
| M1.1 | 07:38 | S20W50 | 13869 | GOES16 | |
| M1.2 | 08:31 | S12W63 (SDO/AIA) | S10303 | GOES16 | |
| C5.4 | 10:30 | 13883 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 12:29 | 13878 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 12:43 | behind southeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| C4.2 | 13:08 | 13876 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.1 | 13:23 | behind southeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 15:04 | 13869 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.1 | 17:46 | 13869 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 18:20 | 13869 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 19:16 | N16E04 | 13878 | GOES16 | |
| C3.8 | 21:44 | S02E90 (SDO/AIA) | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13878 at N15E02 | |
| C3.3 | 23:54 | N15E00 (SDO/AIA) | 13878 | GOES16 |
October 31 - November 2: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A positive polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1251) rotated across the central meridian on October 30-31. A positive polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1252) was Earth facing on October 31 - November 1.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 3-5 due to effects from CH1251 and CH1252.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13868 | 2024.10.21 2024.10.21 |
1 | 1 | S11W86 | 0110 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
||
| 13869 | 2024.10.22 2024.10.23 |
12 | 19 | 12 | S18W60 | 0230 | EAI | EAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S18W59 area: 0370 |
| 13875 | 2024.10.23 2024.10.24 |
12 | 9 | 6 | N27W69 | 0130 | DSI | EAO |
 |
 |
location: N28W64 |
| 13872 | 2024.10.23 2024.10.24 |
5 | S17W51 | 0180 | HAX |
merged with AR 13869 on 2024.10.31 |
|||||
| 13871 | 2024.10.24 | 8 | S09W76 | 0180 | DAO | was part of AR 13869, see AR S10303 | |||||
| 13873 | 2024.10.24 2024.10.24 |
1 | 29 | 12 | S10W45 | 0020 | HAX | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S16W48 area: 0240 SWPC has interpreted the leader spot as AR 13872 |
| S10278 | 2024.10.24 | S22W41 |
 |
||||||||
| 13874 | 2024.10.24 2024.10.25 |
5 | 4 | 3 | N26W86 | 0140 | EAO | HAX |
 |
 |
location: N25W78 area: 0080 |
| 13876 | 2024.10.25 2024.10.25 |
5 | 4 | 3 | S05W75 | 0130 | DAO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: S03W76 area: 0150 |
| S10284 | 2024.10.25 | S15W34 | |||||||||
| 13877 | 2024.10.25 2024.10.27 |
7 | 4 | S17W32 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S17W29 |
||
| 13878 | 2024.10.26 2024.10.27 |
15 | 50 | 30 | N16W03 | 0400 | EKO | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N15E00 |
| S10292 | 2024.10.27 | 7 | 2 | N17W17 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13879 | 2024.10.28 2024.10.29 |
1 | 16 | 5 | N15E23 | 0500 | HHX | CKO |
 |
 |
area: 0860 location: N14E22 |
| S10295 | 2024.10.28 | N11W43 |
 |
||||||||
| S10296 | 2024.10.28 | S01W30 | |||||||||
| S10297 | 2024.10.29 | S12W21 | |||||||||
| 13880 | 2024.10.29 2024.10.31 |
4 | 9 | 5 | S14E30 | 0020 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0015 location: S15E31 |
| S10299 | 2024.10.30 | 3 | 3 | S14W15 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10300 | 2024.10.30 | 8 | S08E39 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 13881 | 2024.10.30 2024.11.01 |
12 | 27 | 16 | S09E12 | 0200 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0420 |
| S10303 | 2024.10.31 | 8 | 6 | S09W76 | 0400 | EKO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma SWPC reassigned AR 13871 to this spot group on 2024.11.01 |
||
| S10304 | 2024.10.31 | 3 | S17W01 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S10305 | 2024.10.31 | S16W22 |
 |
||||||||
| 13882 | 2024.11.01 2024.11.02 |
4 | 4 | 3 | N23W55 | 0020 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| S10307 | 2024.11.01 | 6 | 2 | N08E12 | 0015 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 13883 | 2024.11.01 2024.11.02 |
6 | 13 | 9 | S06E66 | 0060 | CAO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0120 location: S06E64 |
| S10309 | 2024.11.01 | 2 | S25E19 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S10310 | 2024.11.01 | S29W17 |
 |
||||||||
| 13884 | 2024.11.02 2024.11.02 |
1 | 2 | 2 | S06E76 | 0060 | HSX | DSO |
 |
was AR S10311 location: S07E78 |
|
| S10312 | 2024.11.02 | 2 | 1 | S09W27 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10313 | 2024.11.02 | 4 | 2 | S04E68 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S10314 | 2024.11.02 | 1 | 1 | S15E82 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S10315 | 2024.11.02 | 1 | N27W07 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S10316 | 2024.11.02 | 1 | N18E39 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 92 | 240 | 127 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 242 | 500 | 327 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 167 | 321 | 208 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 266 | 275 | 262 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.8 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.3 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | 144.4 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 171.7 | (149.6 projected, +5.2) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (153.5 projected, +3.9) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.5 | (156.4 projected, +2.9) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 215.5 (SC25 peak) | (158.4 projected, +2.0) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.4 | (161.1 projected, +2.7) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 166.3 | (163.4 projected, +2.3) | 19.0 |
| 2024.11 | 253.4 (1) | 15.1 (2A) / 226 (2B) / 205.1 (2C) | (161.8 projected, -1.6) | 8.3 (5) | |
| 2024.12 | (158.7 projected, -3.1) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (154.4 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (147.6 projected, -6.8) | ||||
| 2025.03 | (142.8 projected, -4.8) | ||||
| 2025.04 | (139.8 projected, -3.0) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity in October 2024 increased over September and looks to be headed for an SSN near 160. The average solar flux for October will become the second highest for a month during SC25. The above plot now displays the peak in 365d smoothed sunspot numbers in mid October. ISN has a peak on October 15, NOAA SN on October 14 while both the 1K and 2K SDO SN peaked on October 16. Assuming that the average sunspot number from October 2024 until April 14, 2025 becomes 150, we would be looking at a 365 days smoothed sunspot maximum of 164.5 centered on October 15. Should the average sunspot number for that period become 160 we would get a peak near 169.7.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
